Cape Verde clinched qualifications - will Senegal and South Africa joint them?

Egypt, Cape Verde, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Ghana have qualified. Senegal and South Africa have good chances to clinch the remaining direct paths to the finals. A number of teams still have chance through the playoff as detailed below. 

Group B
Senegal clinch qualifications if they win against Mauritania (86%)
Democratic Republic of Congo clinch qualifications if they win against Sudan and Mauritania win against Senegal (3%)
Democratic Republic of Congo clinch playoff if they win against Sudan (65%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
9	21	Senegal	23.7	+18	100%	100%	96.9%	98.1%
9	19	Democratic Republic of Congo	21.2	+9	100%	91%	3.1%	13%
9	13	Sudan	13.7	+2
10	8	Togo	8	-5
9	7	Mauritania	7.2	-8
10	5	South Sudan	5	-16

Group C
South Africa clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Rwanda and Nigeria draw (or win) against Benin (73%)
Benin clinch qualifications if they win against Nigeria and Rwanda draw (or win) against South Africa (5%)
South Africa clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Rwanda and Nigeria draw (or win) against Benin (73%)
Benin clinch playoff if they win against Nigeria and Rwanda draw (or win) against South Africa (5%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
9	18	South Africa	20.3	+10	100%	95.3%	95.0%	95.1%
9	17	Benin	17.7	+4	49%	14%	5.0%	5%
9	14	Nigeria	16.1	+4	51%
9	11	Rwanda	11.5	-3
10	9	Lesotho	9	-8
10	5	Zimbabwe	5	-7

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
7	21	Morocco	29.5	+29	100%	100%	100%	100%
8	15	Niger	18.9	+3	91%	31%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Tanzania	14.2	0	8%
7	6	Zambia	12	0	< 1%
0	0	Eritrea	6.8	-15	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Congo	6.2	-18	< 1%

Group F
Ivory Coast clinch qualifications if they win against Kenya (68%)
Gabon clinch qualifications if they win against Burundi and Kenya draw (or win) against Ivory Coast (21%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
9	23	Ivory Coast	25.2	+23	100%	100%	79%	82%
9	22	Gabon	24.2	+12	100%	100%	21%	25%
9	12	Kenya	12.6	+6
9	10	Gambia	12.5	+4
9	10	Burundi	10.6	+1
9	0	Seychelles	0.3	-46

Group G
Uganda clinch playoff if they win against Algeria and Sudan draw (or win) against Democratic Republic of Congo (3%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
9	22	Algeria	24.5	+17	100%	100%	100%	100%
9	18	Uganda	18.4	+4	96.9%	8%	< 1%	< 1%
9	15	Mozambique	17.6	-2	3.1%
9	14	Guinea	16.1	+4
9	9	Botswana	9.7	-5
9	1	Somalia	1.3	-18

 Runners-up

		Average when 2nd		Probabilities
Group	Team	Point	GD	2nd	Playoff	1st
F	Gabon	24	12	79%	79%	21%
F	Ivory Coast	23.6	21	21%	21%	79%
B	Democratic Republic of Congo	21.1	9	96.9%	88%	3.1%
B	Senegal	21	14	3.1%	3.1%	96.9%
A	Burkina Faso	21	15	100%	100%	< 1%
E	Niger	19.1	3	91%	31%	< 1%
D	Cameroon	19	12	100%	60%	< 1%
I	Madagascar	19	5	100%	< 1%	< 1%
C	South Africa	18.6	7	5.0%	< 1%	95.0%
G	Uganda	18.4	4	96.9%	8%	< 1%
C	Benin	18.3	5	44%	9%	5.0%
G	Mozambique	18	2	3.1%	< 1%
E	Tanzania	17.3	4	8%	< 1%
C	Nigeria	17	5	51%	< 1%
E	Eritrea	17	-1	< 1%	< 1%
E	Congo	16.5	-3	< 1%	< 1%
E	Zambia	15	4	< 1%	< 1%
H	Namibia	15	3	100%	< 1%