Portugal chance to secure qualifications

Portugal, Norway and England can clinch qualifications as detailed below. On top of that we have a couple of important matches below including Turkey vs Georgia and Serbia's match against Andorra.

Important matches

Turkey vs Georgia	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Turkey	53%	49%	28%
Georgia	< 1%	< 1%	4.5%

Portugal vs Hungary	Home Win (72%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (12%)
Portugal	100%	99.92%	97.9%
Hungary	23%	25%	34%

Andorra vs Serbia	Home Win (2%)	Draw (6%)	Away Win (91%)
Serbia	< 1%	3.2%	11%

 

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Spain	17.1	+20	100%	>99.99%	99.29%	99.94%
3	6	Turkey	10.7	0	89%	89%	< 1%	47%
3	3	Georgia	5.9	-2	11%	11%	< 1%	1.1%
3	0	Bulgaria	1.5	-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F
Portugal clinch qualifications if they win against Hungary (72%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Portugal	16.4	+13	100%	>99.99%	98.8%	99.74%
3	4	Hungary	8.9	+2	87%	87%	1.2%	25%
3	1	Ireland	4.5	-3	9%	9%	< 1%	< 1%
3	3	Armenia	4.3	-12	4.2%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I
Norway clinch qualifications if Estonia draw against Moldova and Israel win against Italy (2%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	18	Norway	21.4	+28	100%	100%	94%	97.1%
5	12	Italy	19.3	+13	99.62%	99.61%	6%	74%
6	9	Israel	11.7	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	3	Estonia	5	-12
5	0	Moldova	1.7	-27	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group K
England clinch qualifications if they win against Latvia (92%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	15	England	22.3	+19	100%	99.96%	99.82%	99.95%
6	11	Albania	14.2	+4	74%	74%	< 1%	4.8%
5	7	Serbia	13.2	+3	27%	26%	< 1%	11%
6	5	Latvia	5.3	-10	< 1%	< 1%
6	1	Andorra	1.4	-15

 Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a playoff for the remaining four slots

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	99.29%	99.94%
A	Germany	100%	< 1%	99.57%	89%	97.2%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	98.8%	99.74%
D	France	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	98.0%	99.68%
K	England	100%	< 1%	99.96%	99.82%	99.95%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	100%	94%	97.1%
J	Wales	100%	34%	66%	< 1%	33%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	26%
H	Romania	100%	29%	71%	< 1%	14%
B	Sweden	100%	95.9%	4.1%	< 1%	20%
J	North Macedonia	100%	66%	34%	< 1%	8%
A	Northern Ireland	99.97%	76%	24%	< 1%	6%
I	Moldova	79%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino	19%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	99.62%	< 1%	99.61%	6%	74%
G	Netherlands	100%	< 1%	100%	99.09%	99.75%
C	Denmark	100%	< 1%	100%	79%	92%
L	Croatia	100%	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%
C	Scotland	100%	< 1%	100%	21%	38%
K	Serbia	27%	< 1%	26%	< 1%	11%
F	Hungary	87%	< 1%	87%	1.2%	25%
J	Belgium	100%	< 1%	100%	99.87%	99.95%
G	Poland	99.91%	< 1%	99.91%	< 1%	26%
I	Israel	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Playoff seed statistics

Group	Team	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Group Winner
E	Spain	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.29%
D	France	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	98.0%
K	England	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.82%
F	Portugal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.8%
G	Netherlands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.09%
J	Belgium	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%
L	Croatia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
I	Italy	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	6%
A	Germany	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	89%
B	Switzerland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	97.8%
C	Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	79%
H	Austria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	98.2%
E	Turkey	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%
D	Ukraine	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	80%	2.0%
J	Wales	34%	< 1%	16%	49%	< 1%
I	Norway	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	5%	94%
B	Sweden	95.9%	< 1%	2.6%	1.5%	< 1%
K	Serbia	< 1%	< 1%	17%	9%	< 1%
G	Poland	< 1%	< 1%	71%	28%	< 1%
L	Czechia	< 1%	< 1%	94%	5.0%	< 1%
F	Hungary	< 1%	6%	80%	< 1%	1.2%
A	Slovakia	< 1%	16%	50%	< 1%	11%
C	Scotland	< 1%	37%	42%	< 1%	21%
B	Slovenia	< 1%	18%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Romania	29%	60%	11%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ireland	< 1%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
J	North Macedonia	66%	30%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Albania	< 1%	72%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Georgia	< 1%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Finland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Northern Ireland	76%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Bosnia and Herzegovina	< 1%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%
D	Iceland	< 1%	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Israel	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Kosovo	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%
F	Armenia	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%