Ghana clinch qualifications with a win

Ghana can secure qualifications tonight, while Madascar and Burkina Faso need to win to increase their chances to finish among the best runner-ups to advance to the playoff.

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The four best runner-ups play knockout playoff round
to determine which team will play in intercontinental
playoff.


Group A
Burkina Faso clinch playoff if they win against Ethiopia and Mali win against Madagascar (57%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
9	23	Egypt	25.5	+19	100%	100%	100%	100%
9	18	Burkina Faso	20.3	+15	100%	86%	< 1%	6%
9	12	Sierra Leone	14.2	+2
9	10	Guinea-Bissau	10.3	-3
9	9	Ethiopia	9.5	-5
9	1	Djibouti	1.6	-28

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
7	21	Morocco	29.5	+29	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%
7	12	Niger	16.7	+1	57%	6%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Tanzania	14.2	0	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Zambia	14	+2	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	0	Eritrea	6.8	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Congo	6.2	-18	< 1%

 Group I
Ghana clinch qualifications if Mali draw (or win) against Madagascar (93%)
Madagascar clinch playoff if they win against Mali (7%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
9	22	Ghana	23.7	+17	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%
9	19	Madagascar	19.3	+6	100%	37%	< 1%	< 1%
9	15	Mali	17.5	+10
9	15	Comoros	16	-1
9	5	Central African Republic	6.4	-14
9	1	Chad	2.3	-18

Runners-up

		Average when 2nd		Probabilities
Group	Team	Point	GD	2nd	Playoff	1st
E	Morocco	24	20	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
F	Gabon	24	12	79%	79%	21%
F	Ivory Coast	23.6	21	21%	21%	79%
I	Ghana	22	11	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
B	Democratic Republic of Congo	21.1	9	96.9%	88%	3.1%
B	Senegal	21	14	3.1%	3.0%	96.9%
D	Cape Verde	20.6	4	13%	11%	87%
A	Burkina Faso	20.3	15	100%	86%	< 1%
D	Cameroon	19.6	12	87%	54%	13%
I	Madagascar	19.3	6	>99.99%	37%	< 1%
C	South Africa	18.6	7	5.0%	< 1%	95.0%
G	Uganda	18.4	4	96.9%	8%	< 1%
C	Benin	18.3	5	44%	7%	5.0%
D	Libya	18	9	< 1%	< 1%
G	Mozambique	18	2	3.1%	< 1%
E	Niger	17.8	2	57%	6%	< 1%
C	Nigeria	17	5	51%	< 1%
E	Tanzania	16.9	4	18%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Zambia	16.7	5	24%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Liberia	16.7	3	12%	< 1%
E	Eritrea	16.1	-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Malawi	16	3	11%	< 1%
H	Equatorial Guinea	16	0	27%	< 1%
H	Namibia	15.8	5	50%	< 1%
E	Congo	15.1	-7	< 1%	< 1%