Important matches for Belgium, Germany and Switzerland

Belgium, Germany and Switzerland can almost secure qualifications tonight. 

Important matches

Wales vs Belgium	Home Win (36%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (40%)
Belgium	64%	92%	99.4%
Wales	77%	42%	32%

Northern Ireland vs Germany	Home Win (12%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (72%)
Northern Ireland	37%	11%	6%
Germany	80%	92%	97.7%
Slovakia	26%	29%	20%

Slovenia vs Switzerland	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (36%)
Slovenia	11%	4.4%	3.4%
Switzerland	97.3%	99.77%	99.96%

 

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	6	Germany	13.3	+10	100%	96.2%	82%	95%
3	6	Slovakia	11	+2	72%	72%	13%	22%
3	6	Northern Ireland	9.3	0	99.98%	32%	5%	10%
3	0	Luxembourg	1.5	-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B
Switzerland clinch qualifications if they win against Slovenia and Sweden draw (or win) against Kosovo (32%)
Sweden clinch playoff if Germany draw (or win) against Northern Ireland and Switzerland win against Slovenia (32%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	Switzerland	14.2	+11	99.85%	99.85%	97.5%	98.9%
3	2	Slovenia	6.6	-2	44%	44%	1.0%	7%
3	4	Kosovo	6.1	-6	23%	23%	< 1%	1.4%
3	1	Sweden	5.9	-3	>99.99%	33%	< 1%	23%

Group D
France clinch qualifications if they win against Iceland and Azerbaijan draw (or win) against Ukraine (11%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
3	9	France	16.6	+13	100%	99.98%	98.5%	99.76%
3	4	Ukraine	9.5	+2	89%	89%	1.4%	48%
3	3	Iceland	5.5	-1	10%	10%	< 1%	< 1%
3	1	Azerbaijan	2.6	-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group J

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	11	Belgium	17.8	+20	96.0%	95.4%	66%	85%
5	10	Wales	16.3	+10	100%	73%	28%	51%
6	12	North Macedonia	15	+9	>99.99%	32%	7%	13%
6	6	Kazakhstan	7	-7
6	0	Liechtenstein	0.1	-32

 

 Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a playoff for the remaining four slots

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	99.29%	99.93%
A	Germany	100%	3.8%	96.2%	82%	95%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	98.8%	99.74%
D	France	100%	< 1%	99.98%	98.5%	99.76%
K	England	100%	< 1%	99.96%	99.80%	99.95%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	100%	94%	97.0%
J	Wales	100%	27%	73%	28%	51%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	24%
H	Romania	100%	29%	71%	< 1%	13%
B	Sweden	>99.99%	67%	33%	< 1%	23%
J	North Macedonia	>99.99%	68%	32%	7%	13%
A	Northern Ireland	99.98%	68%	32%	5%	10%
I	Moldova	87%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino	42%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	99.64%	< 1%	99.61%	6%	74%
G	Netherlands	100%	< 1%	100%	99.08%	99.75%
C	Denmark	100%	< 1%	100%	79%	92%
L	Croatia	100%	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%
C	Scotland	100%	< 1%	100%	21%	36%
K	Serbia	33%	6%	27%	< 1%	11%
F	Hungary	87%	< 1%	87%	1.2%	22%
J	Belgium	96.0%	< 1%	95.4%	66%	85%
G	Poland	99.91%	< 1%	99.91%	< 1%	22%
I	Israel	1.9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Playoff seed statistics

Group	Team	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Group Winner
E	Spain	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.29%
D	France	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	98.5%
K	England	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.80%
F	Portugal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.8%
G	Netherlands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.08%
J	Belgium	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	30%	66%
L	Croatia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
I	Italy	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	6%
A	Germany	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	82%
B	Switzerland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	97.5%
C	Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	79%
H	Austria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	98.1%
E	Turkey	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	86%	< 1%
D	Ukraine	< 1%	< 1%	11%	77%	1.4%
J	Wales	27%	< 1%	13%	32%	28%
I	Norway	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	4.7%	94%
B	Sweden	67%	< 1%	23%	9%	< 1%
K	Serbia	6%	< 1%	21%	5%	< 1%
G	Poland	< 1%	< 1%	83%	15%	< 1%
L	Czechia	< 1%	3.1%	95%	2.1%	< 1%
F	Hungary	< 1%	14%	71%	< 1%	1.2%
A	Slovakia	< 1%	23%	35%	< 1%	13%
C	Scotland	< 1%	48%	30%	< 1%	21%
B	Slovenia	< 1%	36%	7%	< 1%	1.0%
H	Romania	29%	67%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ireland	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	North Macedonia	68%	24%	1.2%	< 1%	7%
K	Albania	< 1%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Georgia	< 1%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Finland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Northern Ireland	68%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	5%
H	Bosnia and Herzegovina	< 1%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%
D	Iceland	< 1%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Israel	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Bulgaria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Kosovo	< 1%	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Luxembourg	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Armenia	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%