EL: Lyon, Midtjylland and Braga with a perfect start

Lyon, Midtjylland and Braga with full 9 points after three matches and can clinch a place in the knockout stage next matchday .

Clinching Scenarios

• Lyon clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Betis (54%)
• Braga clinch knockout stage if they win against Genk (54%)
• Midtjylland clinch knockout stage if they win against Celtic (53%)
• Lille clinch knockout stage if they win against Crvena Zvezda and Dinamo Zagreb draw (or win) against Celta (31%)
• Freiburg clinch knockout stage if they win against Nice and Dinamo Zagreb draw against Celta (7%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Lyon	19	15-6	99.98%	99.2%	91%	97.9%	65%	39%	21%	11%
2	6	Aston Villa	18	16-6	99.91%	98.5%	86%	97.7%	76%	55%	39%	25%
3	7	Lille	17	12-7	99.5%	94%	69%	92%	63%	39%	22%	12%
4	9	Midtjylland	16	19-10	99.7%	95%	70%	87%	40%	15%	5%	1.7%
5	9	Braga	16	16-10	99.5%	93%	64%	84%	39%	15%	5%	1.8%
6	6	Porto	16	13-7	99.2%	92%	63%	89%	54%	29%	14%	7%
7	7	Freiburg	15	12-9	98.3%	84%	44%	78%	39%	17%	7%	2.7%
8	5	Betis	14	14-7	96.4%	79%	39%	79%	47%	25%	13%	6%
9	4	Forest	14	16-11	96.3%	78%	36%	80%	49%	28%	15%	7%
10	4	Bologna	14	15-12	95.2%	75%	33%	75%	43%	22%	10%	4.7%
11	6	Fenerbahce	14	11-10	95%	72%	31%	68%	31%	13%	4.6%	1.7%
12	3	Roma	13	11-7	92%	67%	25%	78%	53%	34%	21%	12%
13	7	Ferencvaros	13	14-11	94%	67%	23%	48%	12%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
14	7	Viktoria Plzen	13	12-9	92%	64%	25%	52%	15%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%
15	6	Celta	13	15-13	92%	64%	25%	63%	28%	11%	4.0%	1.4%
16	7	Dinamo Zagreb	13	13-12	93%	61%	20%	49%	15%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%
17	3	Stuttgart	12	11-10	85%	50%	12%	57%	29%	14%	6%	2.5%
18	6	Brann	11	11-8	81%	42%	11%	37%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
19	4	Genk	11	9-8	78%	39%	9%	42%	15%	4.7%	1.4%	< 1%
20	3	Feyenoord	11	8-7	76%	38%	7%	49%	23%	11%	4.5%	1.8%
21	6	Go Ahead Eagles	10	9-16	56%	17%	2.3%	15%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	4	Celtic	10	11-21	54%	18%	2.5%	26%	9%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Panathinaikos	9	13-12	57%	21%	3.0%	21%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	3	Basel	9	10-12	51%	15%	1.8%	18%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	6	Young Boys	9	11-15	50%	14%	1.7%	16%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Sturm Graz	9	8-12	46%	14%	1.6%	17%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	Nice	8	12-12	43%	11%	< 1%	23%	10%	4.0%	1.5%	< 1%
28	2	PAOK	8	13-14	41%	11%	< 1%	15%	4.1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
29	3	Razgrad	8	10-12	41%	11%	1.3%	12%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Crvena Zvezda	8	10-12	41%	11%	< 1%	18%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	Steaua	7	10-18	21%	4.0%	< 1%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Rangers	6	6-17	11%	1.4%	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Salzburg	5	6-13	6%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	1	Malmoe	5	9-17	9%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Utrecht	5	8-18	8%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	M Tel Aviv	4	4-14	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	11-16	13	17-8	17	16-8
5%	10	8-8	13	13-10	16	23-10
25%	10	7-11	13	11-12	16	14-9
50%	9	10-11	12	14-12	15	18-10
75%	9	8-12	12	13-14	15	13-9
95%	8	11-14	11	10-9	14	12-7
99%	8	8-14	11	11-13	14	10-8

Conference League

Clinching Scenarios

• Crystal Palace clinch knockout stage if they win against Larnaca and Fiorentina win against Rapid Wien (50%)
• Strasbourg clinch knockout stage if they win against Jagiellonia and Alkmaar draw against Slovan Bratislava (12%)
• Shakhtar clinch knockout stage if they win against Legia and Crystal Palace draw against Larnaca (6%)
• Larnaca clinch knockout stage if they win against Crystal Palace and Samsunspor and Dynamo Kyiv do not draw  (4%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	3	Crystal Palace	15	19-3	99.98%	99.6%	93%	99.7%	91%	78%	64%	47%
2	3	Strasbourg	14	14-5	99.8%	97.3%	79%	97.3%	76%	51%	28%	13%
3	3	Shakhtar	14	15-7	99.6%	96.4%	78%	93%	53%	22%	7%	1.9%
4	3	Rayo Vallecano	13	14-6	99.4%	94%	69%	93%	64%	35%	15%	6%
5	3	Mainz	13	13-5	99.5%	94%	69%	95.1%	71%	45%	24%	10%
6	3	Fiorentina	13	12-6	99.1%	92%	64%	95%	73%	48%	28%	13%
7	3	Sparta Praha	12	13-5	98.3%	88%	55%	87%	50%	22%	8%	2.5%
8	3	Celje	11	15-10	95.6%	79%	40%	72%	28%	8%	1.7%	< 1%
9	3	Rakow	11	9-4	95.9%	78%	38%	75%	34%	12%	3.4%	< 1%
10	3	Lech	11	12-8	96.4%	78%	36%	74%	32%	11%	2.7%	< 1%
11	3	Larnaca	11	12-9	96.6%	79%	34%	71%	27%	8%	1.8%	< 1%
12	3	Samsunspor	11	6-5	95%	74%	30%	64%	21%	5%	< 1%	< 1%
13	3	Jagiellonia	10	9-8	92%	65%	22%	65%	27%	9%	2.5%	< 1%
14	3	Lausanne	10	8-9	89%	59%	20%	51%	14%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
15	0	Alkmaar	10	5-12	87%	56%	12%	65%	31%	14%	4.7%	1.5%
16	0	AEK	9	9-8	84%	50%	12%	59%	25%	10%	3.0%	< 1%
17	0	Legia	8	7-7	75%	37%	8%	45%	16%	4.9%	1.2%	< 1%
18	3	Noah	8	6-11	68%	31%	6%	22%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	0	Omonia	7	7-5	68%	33%	7%	39%	13%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	0	Sigma Olomouc	7	6-7	62%	27%	5%	26%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	0	Dynamo Kyiv	7	10-12	63%	25%	3.6%	34%	11%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	3	Zrinjski Mostar	7	7-10	59%	21%	2.8%	17%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	0	Rijeka	7	4-9	55%	20%	3.1%	22%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	0	Shamrock	7	9-15	53%	19%	2.5%	19%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	1	Haecken	6	9-10	51%	19%	3.0%	21%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	0	Rapid Wien	6	9-11	49%	18%	2.5%	23%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
27	0	Craiova	6	7-9	48%	17%	2.3%	24%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
28	0	Slovan Bratislava	6	7-9	47%	16%	2.1%	18%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	1	Drita	5	7-11	35%	9%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	1	Kuopio	5	7-12	34%	8%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	1	Shelbourne	5	8-14	31%	6%	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Shkendija	5	3-12	28%	7%	< 1%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	0	Hamrun	4	6-13	17%	3.0%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Breidablik	4	2-11	16%	2.5%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Aberdeen	3	4-11	10%	1.4%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Lincoln	2	6-15	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	7-12	10	12-8	14	11-4
5%	7	7-7	10	10-8	13	14-6
25%	7	6-9	10	6-9	13	11-7
50%	7	3-11	9	9-7	12	12-5
75%	6	5-7	9	9-10	12	15-12
95%	6	6-14	8	9-8	11	15-11
99%	5	10-14	8	8-10	10	17-10

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	92%	19.04	11.06	25.44
ITA	36%	15.79	7.93	24.14
POL	32%	15.75	8.38	25.13
ESP	16%	14.75	7.81	23.63
GER	15%	14.52	7.43	23.29
FRA	4.2%	13.45	7.81	21.44
POR	4.0%	12.96	6.2	23
UKR	< 1%	10.92	5	19.5
NED	< 1%	10.05	4.92	19.7
CYP	< 1%	10.04	5	18.13
CZE	< 1%	9.54	4.2	17
GRE	< 1%	8.77	4.1	17.2
DEN	< 1%	9.23	5.63	16.63
TUR	< 1%	8.9	4	16

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 239 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.4%	10%	28%	34%	20%	5%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	2%	13%	37%	68%	91%	99%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 210 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	24%	47%	24%	4.1%
Chance if	4%	25%	63%	91%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 199 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	14%	36%	33%	13%	2.4%
Chance if	5%	19%	46%	77%	95%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 199 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
Chance if	< 1%	2%	11%	35%	64%	85%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POL; 197 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	< 1%	9%	34%	42%	14%
Chance if	< 1%	1%	11%	41%	75%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 157 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.4%	15%	34%	32%	14%	2.7%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	4%	16%	44%	75%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 156 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.3%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	11%	31%	61%	85%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	66%	30%	3.1%
Chance if	18%	56%	93%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 135 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	38%	31%	12%	2.1%
Chance if	1.2%	6%	20%	46%	79%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 134 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	21%	42%	28%	8%	< 1%
Chance if	1.1%	7%	23%	54%	86%