PL: Liverpool with the poorest form.

The champions are the coldest team with only three points in the last five matches, 6.1 points less than in the average simulation. 

Hot Teams
Sunderland: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 6.1 more than expected
Man United: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected
Aston Villa: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 more than expected
Brentford: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Liverpool: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 6.1 less than expected
Forest: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.4 less than expected
Wolves: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
West Ham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Chelsea: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
22	Arsenal	80.4	+44	< 1%	99.93%	99.83%	99.61%	99.05%	72%	< 1%	< 1%	99.64%
15	Liverpool	72.5	+31	< 1%	98.4%	97.0%	95%	90%	17%	< 1%	3.6%	95%
16	Man City	69.4	+32	< 1%	95.5%	93%	88%	80%	9%	2.0%	8%	88%
14	Chelsea	59.8	+15	< 1%	62%	51%	39%	26%	< 1%	10%	23%	40%
15	Aston Villa	58.8	+7	< 1%	54%	43%	31%	19%	< 1%	7%	17%	48%
13	Crystal Palace	58.7	+12	< 1%	55%	45%	33%	21%	< 1%	5%	44%	32%
18	Bournemouth	58.6	+6	< 1%	53%	42%	30%	19%	< 1%	9%	22%	29%
12	Newcastle	57.5	+9	< 1%	48%	37%	26%	16%	< 1%	12%	22%	27%
17	Tottenham	56.2	+8	< 1%	40%	30%	20%	12%	< 1%	10%	19%	20%
16	Man United	54.5	-2	< 1%	30%	21%	14%	7%	< 1%	8%	16%	13%
12	Brighton	54.2	+2	< 1%	29%	20%	13%	7%	< 1%	10%	17%	12%
13	Brentford	51.4	-3	2.1%	16%	11%	6%	2.9%	< 1%	10%	11%	6%
11	Everton	49.5	-6	4.1%	11%	7%	3.7%	1.7%	< 1%	4.5%	8%	3.6%
8	Fulham	46.6	-8	9%	5%	2.9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	4.8%	1.4%
11	Leeds	43.3	-18	20%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.9%	< 1%
10	Burnley	40.7	-21	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
5	Forest	40.3	-20	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	7%
17	Sunderland	38.4	-30	48%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	West Ham	35.8	-27	63%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	31.2	-31	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	72%	23%	26%	19%
Liverpool	17%	20%	22%	14%
Man City	9%	14%	19%	9%
Chelsea	< 1%	6%	7%	2.9%
Aston Villa	< 1%	5.0%		25%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	5%	3.2%	46%
Bournemouth	< 1%	3.1%
Newcastle	< 1%	5%	8%	2.1%
Tottenham	< 1%	2.5%	2.1%	< 1%
Man United	< 1%	2.1%
Brighton	< 1%	3.4%	2.1%
Brentford	< 1%	2.2%	5%
Everton	< 1%	2.2%
Fulham	< 1%	1.8%	4.5%
Leeds	< 1%	< 1%
Burnley	< 1%	< 1%
Forest	< 1%	1.3%		7%
Sunderland		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%	< 1%

Important match for title race
Burnley vs Arsenal (1.7%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
Arsenal	64%	68%	76%
Liverpool	21%	19%	14%
Man City	12%	10%	8%

 

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Chelsea (2.9%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Chelsea	33%	38%	49%
Tottenham	26%	18%	14%
Man City vs Bournemouth (2.1%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Bournemouth	26%	31%	41%
Man City	91%	85%	81%