PL: City vs Pool in title race

 City and Pool double their chances with a win compared with a loss.

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Liverpool (1.6%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Man City	12%	8%	6%
Liverpool	7%	9%	14%

 

Important matches for CL race
Tottenham vs Man United (2.5%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Man United	17%	22%	30%
Tottenham	23%	16%	12%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Burnley (3.9%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
West Ham	48%	36%	29%
Burnley	66%	73%	82%
Forest vs Leeds (3.5%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Forest	66%	55%	48%
Leeds	68%	74%	83%

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
25	Arsenal	82.4	+46	< 1%	99.98%	99.94%	99.84%	99.55%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	99.86%
18	Liverpool	71.4	+28	< 1%	97.6%	95.7%	92%	86%	9%	< 1%	5%	93%
19	Man City	71.2	+34	< 1%	97.4%	95.4%	92%	85%	9%	1.4%	5%	92%
17	Chelsea	61.9	+17	< 1%	72%	62%	50%	35%	< 1%	11%	22%	50%
18	Bournemouth	59.3	+7	< 1%	56%	44%	32%	20%	< 1%	10%	23%	31%
15	Aston Villa	58.5	+7	< 1%	52%	40%	28%	17%	< 1%	7%	17%	48%
16	Man United	57.3	+3	< 1%	44%	33%	23%	13%	< 1%	10%	21%	22%
16	Crystal Palace	57.0	+7	< 1%	43%	32%	22%	12%	< 1%	7%	45%	21%
12	Newcastle	56.5	+8	< 1%	41%	30%	20%	11%	< 1%	16%	22%	21%
17	Tottenham	56.0	+9	< 1%	38%	28%	18%	10%	< 1%	10%	20%	18%
15	Brighton	54.8	+4	< 1%	31%	21%	13%	7%	< 1%	9%	18%	13%
13	Brentford	51.9	-1	1.5%	17%	11%	6%	2.9%	< 1%	9%	12%	6%
12	Everton	47.6	-8	6%	6%	3.4%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	5%	1.6%
11	Fulham	46.3	-8	9%	4.1%	2.3%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	4.0%	1.1%
11	Leeds	41.5	-22	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
10	Burnley	41.2	-20	28%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
18	Sunderland	40.1	-26	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	Forest	39.0	-22	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	6%
7	West Ham	36.0	-28	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	28.8	-36	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	80%	26%	37%	22%
Liverpool	9%	15%		10%
Man City	9%	15%	24%	10%
Chelsea	< 1%	7%	18%	3.4%
Bournemouth	< 1%	3.8%
Aston Villa	< 1%	5%		28%
Man United	< 1%	3.0%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	3.6%	3.4%	41%
Newcastle	< 1%	6%	12%	2.5%
Tottenham	< 1%	3.0%		< 1%
Brighton	< 1%	3.1%
Brentford	< 1%	2.7%	2.9%
Everton	< 1%	1.8%
Fulham	< 1%	1.4%	2.0%
Leeds		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Sunderland		< 1%
Forest		1.0%		6%
West Ham		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%