A tight final match day in central america

The group winners advance to the World Cup finals and the two best  runner-ups will play intercontinental playoff.

Group A 

A two-horse race in Group A where Panama and Suriname are on equal points. If both win, goal difference decides where Suriname has a three-goal advantage.

Panama clinch qualifications if they win against El Salvador and Guatemala draw (or win) against Suriname (69%)
Suriname clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Guatemala and El Salvador draw (or win) against Panama (6%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	9	Panama	11.5	+4	100%	94%	79%	88%
5	9	Suriname	9.6	+4	100%	65%	21%	29%
5	5	Guatemala	7.2	0
5	3	El Salvador	3.3	-8

Group B
A deciding group final in Group B, in which Jamaica need to beat Curacao to win the group. 

Jamaica clinch qualifications if they win against Curaçao (74%)
Curaçao clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Jamaica (26%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	10	Jamaica	12.4	+10	100%	99.82%	74%	84%
5	11	Curaçao	11.5	+8	100%	99.99%	26%	39%
5	6	Trinidad and Tobago	8.4	+3
5	0	Bermuda	0.4	-21

Group C 

Tight before the final matchday but advantage Haiti playing an eliminated Nicaragua. 

Haiti clinch qualifications if they win against Nicaragua and Costa Rica draw (or win) against Honduras (55%)
Costa Rica clinch qualifications if they win against Honduras and Nicaragua draw (or win) against Haiti (19%)
Honduras clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Costa Rica and Nicaragua draw (or win) against Haiti (13%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
5	8	Haiti	10.2	+2	94%	69%	59%	63%
5	8	Honduras	8.8	+2	47%	30%	22%	25%
5	6	Costa Rica	8	+3	60%	43%	19%	31%
5	4	Nicaragua	4.6	-7