Key match for Scotland in Greece

The most interesting match tonight is when Greece host Scotland. Denmark and Scotland are currently on equal points and as Denmark is expected to win against Belarus, a point will be crucial for Scotland so a win against Denmark suffices to win the group.

In Group B, Slovenia host Kosovo i a key match in the race for the 2nd place and a spot in the playoffs. For Kosovo a draw is sufficient to clinch a spot in the playoff. A win would give them a chance to challenge Switzerland for the group win.

In Group H, Austria will most likely win the group and the question is whether Romania or Bosnia will be 2nd. Romania is three points behind Bosnia but with better goal difference. While Bosnia play Austria in the last round, Romania play San Marino, so the match tonight is crucial and the winner is likely to snatch the 2nd place. Romania is guaranteed a playoff regardless via NL, but advancing via a 2nd place gives a better seeding. 

 

Important matches

Greece vs Scotland	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Scotland	32%	56%	58%
Denmark	97.9%	86%	85%

Slovenia vs Kosovo	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Kosovo	2.0%	8%	13%
Switzerland	>99.99%	98.0%	95.9%
Slovenia	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Romania	Home Win (24%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	7%	1.2%	< 1%
Austria	97.8%	99.7%	99.66%
Moldova	< 1%	1.0%	1.2%
Romania	18%	14%	13%

 Group B
Switzerland clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Sweden and Slovenia win against Kosovo (53%)
Kosovo clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Slovenia (32%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	Switzerland	13.8	+11	100%	100%	97.8%	99.06%
4	7	Kosovo	8.5	-3	74%	74%	2.2%	4.5%
4	3	Slovenia	6.2	-2	22%	22%	< 1%	2.7%
4	1	Sweden	3.6	-5	100%	4.1%	< 1%	20%

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	Denmark	14	+14	100%	100%	79%	92%
4	10	Scotland	12.3	+4	100%	100%	21%	43%
4	3	Greece	7	-1
4	0	Belarus	0.9	-17

Group E
Spain clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Georgia and Bulgaria draw (or win) against Turkey (20%)
Turkey clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Bulgaria (92%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	12	Spain	17.1	+19	100%	100%	99.12%	99.92%
4	9	Turkey	11.7	+2	99.79%	99.79%	< 1%	53%
4	3	Georgia	5.1	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	0	Bulgaria	1.4	-17

Group H
Austria clinch qualifications if they win against Cyprus and Romania draw (or win) against Bosnia and Herzegovina (63%)
Austria clinch playoff if they win against Cyprus (84%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina clinch playoff if they win against Romania (24%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	15	Austria	20.3	+21	99.85%	99.85%	98.2%	99.22%
6	10	Romania	14.8	+11	100%	71%	< 1%	14%
6	13	Bosnia and Herzegovina	14.2	+5	29%	29%	1.6%	2.1%
7	8	Cyprus	8.3	-0
7	0	San Marino	0	-36	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group J
Belgium clinch qualifications if they win against Kazakhstan (74%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	14	Belgium	19.3	+22	100%	100%	99.87%	99.95%
6	10	Wales	14.9	+8	100%	66%	< 1%	25%
7	13	North Macedonia	13.7	+8	100%	34%	< 1%	8%
7	7	Kazakhstan	7.5	-6
6	0	Liechtenstein	0.1	-32