Decider between Ukraine and Iceland

Deciding match between Ukraine and Iceland. Ukraine need to win to reach the playoffs, while a draw suffices for Iceland.

Likewise, and almost deciding match in Budapest when Irelands visits. Ireland need to win to reach playoffs, while a draw suffices for hosting Hungary. With a win Hungary can win the group win but that requires that Portugal fail to win against Armenia. 

Important matches

Ukraine vs Iceland	Home Win (73%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Ukraine	52%	< 1%	< 1%
Iceland	< 1%	4.1%	4.3%

Hungary vs Ireland	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Hungary	33%	31%	< 1%
Ireland	< 1%	< 1%	6%

Portugal vs Armenia	Home Win (93%)	Draw (5%)	Away Win (2%)
Portugal	100%	96.1%	84%
Hungary	26%	38%	73%

Group D
Ukraine clinch playoff if they win against Iceland (73%)
Iceland clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Ukraine (27%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	13	France	15.7	+13	100%	100%	100%	100%
5	7	Ukraine	9.3	-1	73%	73%	< 1%	38%
5	7	Iceland	7.5	+2	27%	27%	< 1%	1.1%
5	1	Azerbaijan	1.2	-14

Group F
Portugal clinch qualifications if they win against Armenia (93%)
Hungary clinch qualifications if they win against Ireland and Armenia win against Portugal (1%)
Hungary clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Ireland (86%)
Ireland clinch playoff if they win against Hungary (14%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	10	Portugal	12.8	+8	100%	100%	97.9%	99.52%
5	8	Hungary	10.2	+3	86%	86%	2.1%	28%
5	7	Ireland	7.6	-0	14%	14%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Armenia	3.1	-11

Group I
Norway clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Italy (37%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
7	21	Norway	21.7	+28	100%	100%	99.98%	>99.99%
7	18	Italy	20.1	+13	100%	100%	< 1%	70%
7	9	Israel	11.4	-2
8	4	Estonia	4	-13
7	1	Moldova	1.5	-26

 

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
A	Germany	100%	< 1%	100%	91%	97.7%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	100%	97.9%	99.52%
D	France	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
K	England	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	100%	99.98%	>99.99%
J	Wales	100%	37%	63%	< 1%	24%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	26%
H	Romania	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	17%
B	Sweden	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	20%
J	North Macedonia	100%	63%	37%	< 1%	8%
A	Northern Ireland	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	7%

Playoff seed statistics

Group	Team	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Group Winner
F	Portugal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	97.9%
J	Belgium	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.81%
I	Italy	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%
A	Germany	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	91%
B	Switzerland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
C	Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	38%	62%
H	Austria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	95%
E	Turkey	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.69%	< 1%
D	Ukraine	< 1%	< 1%	4.7%	68%	< 1%
I	Norway	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
G	Poland	< 1%	< 1%	37%	63%	< 1%
J	Wales	37%	< 1%	54%	9%	< 1%
F	Hungary	< 1%	< 1%	79%	4.5%	2.1%
C	Scotland	< 1%	< 1%	61%	< 1%	38%
B	Sweden	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Czechia	< 1%	6%	94%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovakia	< 1%	38%	53%	< 1%	9%
H	Romania	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Albania	< 1%	84%	16%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ireland	< 1%	13%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
J	North Macedonia	63%	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Northern Ireland	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Iceland	< 1%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Bosnia and Herzegovina	< 1%	95%	< 1%	< 1%	5%
B	Kosovo	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%