Euro Qualifier: Decider between Slovakia and Northern Ireland.

Norway have almost clinched a ticket to the world cup. They only need to avoid losing with more than seven goals against Italy.

Serbia are almost out after loss at Wembley. They need that 6 of the following 7 countries finish top-2 in their groups: Czechia (99.9%), Germany (99.6%), Romania (71%), Wales (66%), North Macedonia (34%), Northern Ireland (24%), and Sweden (4%).

Tonight, the most interesting happens in Group A. Slovakia play Northern Ireland in a deciding match on who will finish 2nd in the group behind Germany. Slovakia are 3 points ahead of Northern Ireland but play Germany in the last match while Northern Ireland play Luxembourg. At the same time Germany play Luxembourg and need to win to have a good position for the final match against Slovakia.

In Group G, Netherlands can clinch qualification tonight with a win against Poland, or if they draw they need to draw Lithuania in the final match.

Important matches

Slovakia vs Northern Ireland	Home Win (65%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Slovakia	27%	17%	2.2%

Luxembourg vs Germany	Home Win (7%)	Draw (12%)	Away Win (81%)
Slovakia	33%	27%	19%
Germany	92%	95%	98.0%
Northern Ireland	9%	8%	6%

Poland vs Netherlands	Home Win (24%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Netherlands	99.0%	100%	100%
Poland	39%	36%	36%

 

Group A
Slovakia clinch playoff if they win against Northern Ireland (65%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	9	Germany	14	+9	100%	99.56%	89%	97.2%
4	9	Slovakia	11.6	+2	76%	76%	11%	21%
4	6	Northern Ireland	8.7	+1	99.98%	24%	< 1%	6%
4	0	Luxembourg	1.1	-12

Group G
Netherlands clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Poland (76%)
Poland clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against Netherlands (46%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	16	Netherlands	20.7	+24	100%	100%	99.09%	99.76%
6	13	Poland	16.3	+7	99.90%	99.90%	< 1%	37%
7	10	Finland	12.4	-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	3	Lithuania	3.1	-9
6	2	Malta	2.9	-19

Group L
Croatia clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Faroe Islands (98%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	16	Croatia	21.1	+24	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%
7	13	Czechia	15.9	+9	100%	99.93%	< 1%	25%
7	12	Faroe Islands	12.1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	6	Montenegro	9	-9
6	0	Gibraltar	0.5	-25

 

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a playoff for the remaining four slots
 

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	100%	99.12%	99.93%
A	Germany	100%	< 1%	99.56%	89%	97.2%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	100%	97.9%	99.56%
D	France	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
K	England	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	100%	99.98%	>99.99%
J	Wales	100%	34%	66%	< 1%	25%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	25%
H	Romania	100%	29%	71%	< 1%	15%
B	Sweden	>99.99%	95.9%	4.1%	< 1%	20%
J	North Macedonia	>99.99%	66%	34%	< 1%	8%
A	Northern Ireland	99.98%	76%	24%	< 1%	6%
I	Moldova	79%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino	19%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	100%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	73%
G	Netherlands	100%	< 1%	100%	99.09%	99.76%
C	Denmark	100%	< 1%	100%	79%	92%
L	Croatia	100%	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%
C	Scotland	100%	< 1%	100%	21%	43%
K	Serbia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Playoff seed statistics

Group	Team	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Group Winner
E	Spain	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.12%
F	Portugal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	97.9%
G	Netherlands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.09%
J	Belgium	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%
I	Italy	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%
A	Germany	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	89%
L	Croatia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
B	Switzerland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	97.8%
C	Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	79%
H	Austria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	98.1%
E	Turkey	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	98.7%	< 1%
D	Ukraine	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	70%	< 1%
I	Norway	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
G	Poland	< 1%	< 1%	26%	73%	< 1%
J	Wales	34%	< 1%	54%	12%	< 1%
K	Serbia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Hungary	< 1%	< 1%	78%	5%	2.1%
C	Scotland	< 1%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	21%
B	Sweden	95.9%	< 1%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Czechia	< 1%	8%	92%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovakia	< 1%	29%	37%	< 1%	11%
H	Romania	29%	53%	17%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Slovenia	< 1%	20%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Albania	< 1%	92%	8%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ireland	< 1%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	North Macedonia	66%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Northern Ireland	76%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Georgia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Finland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Iceland	< 1%	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Bosnia and Herzegovina	< 1%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%
B	Kosovo	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%
H	San Marino	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%