Euro Qualifier: Will Norway secure a ticket to the World Cup?

If Norway win they have almost clinched the group win as they lead with three points and 16 goals against Italy, which means Italy beat Norway with 8 goals in the last round to snatch the group win.

In Group K, Albania and Serbia are fighting over the 2nd spot and a place in playoffs.  Both play England plus that Abania play Andorra today and Serbia play Latvia on Sunday.

Important matches

Norway vs Estonia	Home Win (87%)	Draw (9%)	Away Win (4%)
Norway	99.96%	76%	73%
Italy	72%	87%	89%

England vs Serbia	Home Win (70%)	Draw (17%)	Away Win (13%)
Serbia	4.1%	14%	27%
Albania	6%	3.6%	1.1%

Andorra vs Albania	Home Win (6%)	Draw (11%)	Away Win (83%)
Serbia	27%	23%	5%
Albania	< 1%	1.8%	5%

Group D
France clinch qualifications if they win against Ukraine (75%)
Ukraine clinch playoff if they draw (or win) against France and Azerbaijan win against Iceland (7%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	France	15.1	+11	100%	>99.99%	98.0%	99.67%
4	7	Ukraine	9.8	+1	84%	84%	1.9%	47%
4	4	Iceland	6.1	+1	16%	16%	< 1%	< 1%
4	1	Azerbaijan	2.3	-12

Group F
Portugal clinch qualifications if they win against Ireland (69%)
Hungary clinch playoff if they win against Armenia and Portugal win against Ireland (46%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	Portugal	15.1	+12	100%	100%	99.69%	99.94%
4	5	Hungary	9.4	+4	93%	93%	< 1%	27%
4	4	Ireland	5.2	-4	7%	7%	< 1%	< 1%
4	3	Armenia	3.7	-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I
Norway clinch qualifications if they win against Estonia and Moldova draw (or win) against Italy (14%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	18	Norway	21.4	+28	100%	100%	93%	96.8%
6	15	Italy	19.7	+14	100%	100%	7%	74%
7	9	Israel	11.4	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	4	Estonia	4.2	-13
6	1	Moldova	1.7	-26	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Group K
Albania clinch playoff if they win against Andorra and England win against Serbia (58%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
6	18	England	22.5	+21	100%	100%	100%	100%
6	11	Albania	14.2	+4	74%	74%	< 1%	4.7%
6	10	Serbia	13.4	+2	27%	26%	< 1%	9%
7	5	Latvia	5.1	-12
7	1	Andorra	1.3	-14

 

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a playoff for the remaining four slots

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	100%	99.14%	99.92%
A	Germany	100%	< 1%	99.57%	89%	97.2%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	100%	99.69%	99.94%
D	France	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	98.0%	99.67%
K	England	100%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	100%	93%	96.8%
J	Wales	100%	34%	66%	< 1%	23%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	23%
H	Romania	100%	29%	71%	< 1%	14%
B	Sweden	100%	95.9%	4.1%	< 1%	20%
J	North Macedonia	100%	66%	34%	< 1%	8%
A	Northern Ireland	99.98%	76%	24%	< 1%	6%
I	Moldova	79%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino	19%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	100%	< 1%	100%	7%	74%
G	Netherlands	100%	< 1%	100%	99.09%	99.76%
C	Denmark	100%	< 1%	100%	79%	92%
L	Croatia	100%	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%
C	Scotland	100%	< 1%	100%	21%	42%
K	Serbia	27%	< 1%	26%	< 1%	9%
F	Hungary	93%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	27%
J	Belgium	100%	< 1%	100%	99.87%	99.95%
G	Poland	99.91%	< 1%	99.91%	< 1%	36%
I	Israel	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Playoff seed statistics

Group	Team	Pot 4	Pot 3	Pot 2	Pot 1	Group Winner
E	Spain	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.14%
D	France	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	98.0%
F	Portugal	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.69%
G	Netherlands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.09%
J	Belgium	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%
I	Italy	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	7%
A	Germany	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	89%
L	Croatia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
B	Switzerland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	97.8%
C	Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	21%	79%
H	Austria	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	98.1%
E	Turkey	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	98.7%	< 1%
D	Ukraine	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	79%	1.9%
I	Norway	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	93%
G	Poland	< 1%	< 1%	28%	71%	< 1%
J	Wales	34%	< 1%	59%	7%	< 1%
K	Serbia	< 1%	< 1%	25%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Hungary	< 1%	< 1%	89%	2.5%	< 1%
C	Scotland	< 1%	1.7%	77%	< 1%	21%
B	Sweden	95.9%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
L	Czechia	< 1%	22%	77%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Slovakia	< 1%	42%	23%	< 1%	11%
H	Romania	29%	62%	9%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Slovenia	< 1%	21%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
K	Albania	< 1%	70%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Ireland	< 1%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	North Macedonia	66%	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Northern Ireland	76%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Georgia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Finland	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Iceland	< 1%	16%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Bosnia and Herzegovina	< 1%	28%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%
I	Israel	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Kosovo	< 1%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%
F	Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	San Marino	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%