PL: Man City make title race statement

Man City reduces the gap to leading Arsenal after 3-0 victory over Liverpool.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
26	Arsenal	81.1	+45	< 1%	99.96%	99.91%	99.76%	99.35%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	99.80%
22	Man City	72.5	+37	< 1%	98.6%	97.3%	95%	90%	15%	< 1%	3.4%	95.2%
18	Liverpool	70.4	+26	< 1%	96.9%	95%	90%	83%	8%	1.2%	6%	91%
20	Chelsea	62.6	+18	< 1%	77%	67%	55%	39%	1.0%	10%	21%	56%
18	Aston Villa	59.8	+10	< 1%	60%	49%	36%	22%	< 1%	7%	17%	53%
18	Bournemouth	58.3	+4	< 1%	50%	39%	27%	16%	< 1%	10%	23%	26%
18	Man United	56.9	+3	< 1%	42%	32%	21%	12%	< 1%	10%	21%	21%
17	Crystal Palace	56.2	+7	< 1%	39%	29%	19%	10%	< 1%	7%	46%	18%
18	Tottenham	55.3	+9	< 1%	35%	25%	16%	8%	< 1%	10%	19%	16%
12	Newcastle	55.3	+6	< 1%	34%	24%	15%	8%	< 1%	16%	20%	17%
16	Brighton	54.8	+4	< 1%	31%	22%	13%	7%	< 1%	9%	18%	13%
16	Brentford	53.4	+1	< 1%	23%	16%	9%	4.3%	< 1%	10%	15%	9%
15	Everton	48.9	-7	4.1%	8%	4.8%	2.5%	1.0%	< 1%	4.1%	7%	2.4%
11	Fulham	45.3	-9	11%	2.9%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	3.3%	< 1%
19	Sunderland	40.6	-24	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
11	Leeds	40.5	-23	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
10	Burnley	40.1	-20	34%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
9	Forest	39.8	-21	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	6%
10	West Ham	37.3	-27	53%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	28.3	-37	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	75%	26%	37%	22%
Man City	15%	15%	24%	11%
Liverpool	8%	15%		11%
Chelsea	1.0%	7%	18%	3.0%
Aston Villa	< 1%	5%		28%
Bournemouth	< 1%	3.8%
Man United	< 1%	3.0%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	3.6%	3.4%	41%
Tottenham	< 1%	3.0%		< 1%
Newcastle	< 1%	6%	12%	2.7%
Brighton	< 1%	3.1%
Brentford	< 1%	2.7%	2.9%
Everton	< 1%	1.8%
Fulham	< 1%	1.4%	2.0%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Forest		1.0%		6%
West Ham		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

 

Most likely combo of teams in CL

10%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.5%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.7%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City
3.2%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City
2.6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
2.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Liverpool, Man City
2.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

12%	Forest, West Ham, Wolves
11%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
10%	Leeds, West Ham, Wolves
10%	Sunderland, West Ham, Wolves
6%	Burnley, Forest, Wolves
6%	Forest, Leeds, Wolves
6%	Forest, Sunderland, Wolves
6%	Burnley, Leeds, Wolves
5%	Burnley, Sunderland, Wolves
4.8%	Leeds, Sunderland, Wolves