EL: Midtjylland clinch knockout stage with a 4th win

Midjylland clinched a place in the last 24 after four straight wins. Aston Villa, Lyon ae likely to secure a knockout place in the next match - while Braga, Freiburg, Ferencvaros, Zagreb and Betis also have chance to clinch as detailed below.

In Conference League, Mainz, Celje and Samsunspor have secure a place in the knockout stage.

England is 95% certain to get one of the extra CL spots. The other one is likely falling to Italy, Germany or Poland.

Clinching Scenarios

• Aston Villa clinch knockout stage if they win against Young Boys (84%)
• Lyon clinch knockout stage if they win against M Tel Aviv (55%)
• Braga clinch knockout stage if they win against Rangers and Aston Villa and Young Boys do not draw  (39%)
• Freiburg clinch knockout stage if they win against Viktoria Plzen (38%)
• Ferencvaros clinch knockout stage if they win against Fenerbahce (15%)
• Dinamo Zagreb clinch knockout stage if they win against Lille (11%)
• Betis clinch knockout stage if they win against Utrecht and Aston Villa draw against Young Boys (7%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Aston Villa	18	17-5	99.98%	99.15%	91%	98.5%	76%	58%	42%	28%
2	12	Midtjylland	18	15-5	100%	99.05%	88%	95%	46%	20%	8%	2.9%
3	9	Lyon	18	12-6	99.90%	97.2%	81%	94%	58%	33%	17%	8%
4	10	Freiburg	17	14-9	99.96%	96.1%	73%	89%	45%	20%	8%	3.1%
5	7	Porto	16	10-8	99.0%	87%	52%	83%	50%	27%	13%	6%
6	8	Betis	15	13-5	99.21%	88%	55%	85%	51%	28%	14%	7%
7	9	Braga	15	13-10	98.5%	81%	42%	74%	35%	15%	6%	2.2%
8	10	Dinamo Zagreb	14	16-11	99.78%	83%	38%	61%	18%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%
9	6	Roma	14	12-8	96.3%	74%	33%	81%	55%	35%	21%	12%
10	10	Ferencvaros	14	15-12	99.40%	80%	37%	59%	16%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
11	6	Lille	14	9-7	96.0%	71%	29%	77%	49%	29%	16%	8%
12	7	Fenerbahce	14	9-8	95.5%	68%	27%	67%	33%	15%	6%	2.4%
13	5	Forest	13	13-8	94%	64%	20%	71%	42%	23%	12%	6%
14	8	Viktoria Plzen	13	9-5	94%	60%	22%	52%	17%	5%	1.3%	< 1%
15	6	Stuttgart	13	14-11	95%	66%	21%	68%	36%	18%	8%	3.7%
16	7	Genk	13	11-8	94%	63%	21%	53%	19%	6%	1.7%	< 1%
17	5	Bologna	12	14-6	92%	57%	16%	66%	38%	21%	10%	4.9%
18	7	PAOK	12	13-9	90%	51%	14%	47%	17%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
19	6	Celta	12	12-12	84%	44%	11%	52%	25%	11%	4.3%	1.7%
20	7	Brann	11	13-9	85%	43%	11%	38%	11%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
21	6	Panathinaikos	11	11-9	80%	35%	8%	31%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
22	3	Feyenoord	10	14-14	70%	22%	2.3%	42%	22%	11%	4.8%	2.1%
23	4	Crvena Zvezda	10	11-11	66%	22%	2.9%	28%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
24	6	Basel	10	11-13	63%	19%	2.7%	21%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	6	Go Ahead Eagles	9	10-16	41%	8%	< 1%	11%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	6	Young Boys	9	9-25	27%	3.7%	< 1%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	4	Sturm Graz	8	7-9	40%	8%	< 1%	12%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	4	Celtic	8	7-12	31%	5%	< 1%	12%	4.2%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
29	0	Nice	7	10-14	21%	1.7%	< 1%	11%	6%	2.5%	1.0%	< 1%
30	3	Razgrad	7	13-20	20%	2.5%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	Salzburg	6	8-15	8%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Steaua	6	8-17	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	1	Utrecht	5	4-11	6%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Rangers	4	8-16	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	1	Malmoe	4	6-17	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	M Tel Aviv	4	6-19	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	9-10	14	11-8	17	13-6
5%	10	10-9	13	14-9	16	15-6
25%	10	11-14	13	9-7	16	12-7
50%	9	14-13	12	15-6	15	16-8
75%	9	12-15	12	11-9	15	12-7
95%	8	14-16	11	14-9	14	16-11
99%	8	10-15	11	8-7	14	12-9

Conference League

Clinching Scenarios

• Rayo Vallecano clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Slovan Bratislava (81%)
• Fiorentina clinch knockout stage if they win against AEK (67%)
• Larnaca clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Rijeka (64%)
• Strasbourg clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Crystal Palace (60%)
• Crystal Palace clinch knockout stage if they win against Strasbourg (40%)
• Sparta Praha clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Legia and win against Rijeka (32%)
• Lausanne clinch knockout stage if they win against Lech (24%)
• Rakow clinch knockout stage if they win against Rapid Wien and Sigma Olomouc draw against Celje (15%)
• Jagiellonia clinch knockout stage if they win against Kuopio and Shelbourne win against Alkmaar (4%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Mainz	15	9-4	100%	99.26%	85%	97.6%	69%	40%	20%	9%
2	9	Celje	14	13-4	100%	99.33%	83%	94%	42%	13%	3.1%	< 1%
3	7	Strasbourg	13	15-5	>99.99%	99.23%	80%	97.9%	76%	50%	30%	15%
4	7	Rayo Vallecano	13	17-9	99.99%	98.4%	75%	96.2%	68%	40%	21%	9%
5	6	Crystal Palace	13	13-6	99.98%	99.19%	78%	98.9%	87%	72%	58%	41%
6	6	Fiorentina	13	13-7	99.86%	96.3%	67%	95.6%	71%	46%	26%	13%
7	9	Samsunspor	13	11-5	100%	98.3%	68%	88%	36%	10%	2.3%	< 1%
8	7	Larnaca	13	9-4	99.94%	95.6%	58%	85%	37%	12%	3.1%	< 1%
9	6	Shakhtar	12	15-8	99.62%	94%	58%	87%	42%	16%	4.8%	1.3%
10	4	Sparta Praha	11	13-7	98.2%	85%	42%	84%	46%	22%	8%	2.9%
11	5	Rakow	11	9-5	97.7%	82%	26%	73%	30%	11%	3.1%	< 1%
12	7	Lausanne	10	10-6	99.31%	77%	25%	66%	21%	6%	1.2%	< 1%
13	3	Alkmaar	10	9-10	95%	69%	11%	75%	40%	20%	9%	3.3%
14	5	Jagiellonia	9	8-6	94%	60%	10%	65%	27%	10%	3.0%	< 1%
15	3	Legia	9	8-6	91%	55%	8%	54%	18%	6%	1.3%	< 1%
16	4	Sigma Olomouc	9	8-8	89%	51%	9%	42%	9%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
17	4	AEK	8	11-8	84%	40%	4.6%	55%	23%	9%	2.8%	< 1%
18	5	Drita	8	6-10	70%	19%	< 1%	13%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	3	Lech	7	11-9	76%	35%	4.0%	44%	15%	5%	1.3%	< 1%
20	4	Noah	7	7-10	61%	19%	1.2%	16%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Craiova	7	4-7	60%	18%	1.4%	27%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
22	4	Shkendija	7	4-9	54%	13%	< 1%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Dynamo Kyiv	6	11-10	62%	18%	< 1%	27%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
24	2	Omonia	6	7-6	60%	20%	< 1%	30%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
25	2	Haecken	6	5-6	48%	13%	< 1%	19%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	5	Kuopio	6	7-10	49%	9%	< 1%	11%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	Zrinjski Mostar	6	9-13	45%	11%	< 1%	10%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	1	Shamrock	5	10-11	44%	8%	< 1%	11%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	1	Rijeka	5	4-6	38%	10%	< 1%	14%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	Lincoln	5	5-13	31%	4.5%	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	0	Slovan Bratislava	4	7-12	19%	2.3%	< 1%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	0	Rapid Wien	4	4-13	13%	1.6%	< 1%	4.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	1	Aberdeen	4	5-17	7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	1	Breidablik	4	2-15	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Hamrun	3	2-9	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	Shelbourne	1	1-7	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	7	13-10	10	9-5	13	19-8
5%	7	11-12	10	10-9	13	14-7
25%	7	11-16	9	13-10	13	9-6
50%	6	6-6	9	9-8	12	14-8
75%	6	8-11	9	5-9	12	7-3
95%	5	8-9	8	7-7	11	9-4
99%	5	5-9	8	4-6	11	8-6

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95%	19.26	12.11	26.11
ITA	33%	15.52	7.71	25.57
GER	29%	15.36	8.57	25.07
POL	27%	15.37	7.88	25
ESP	13%	14.34	7.63	23.06
POR	2.4%	12.41	6.2	22.7
FRA	1.4%	12.43	6.38	20.19
NED	< 1%	10.1	5.08	19.9
UKR	< 1%	10.11	5.67	18.83
CYP	< 1%	10.74	6.75	20.25
GRE	< 1%	9.88	5.1	19.7
CZE	< 1%	9.94	4.8	19.2
TUR	< 1%	9.77	5.2	18.1
DEN	< 1%	9.33	6.13	16.38
BEL	< 1%	7.49	3.7	15.9

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 225 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.8%	12%	30%	34%	17%	3.9%
Chance if	< 1%	2.3%	13%	37%	68%	91%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 201 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	33%	46%	18%	2.6%
Chance if	4.4%	25%	64%	93%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 191 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.6%	12%	31%	34%	17%	3.8%
Chance if	< 1%	2.0%	11%	31%	60%	85%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 189 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	38%	32%	12%	1.8%
Chance if	4.8%	18%	44%	75%	95%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POL; 186 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	1.4%	14%	40%	36%	8%
Chance if	< 1%	1.3%	13%	43%	76%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 182 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.4%	10%	29%	37%	20%	3.2%
Chance if	< 1%	2.2%	13%	36%	64%	85%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 165 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	19%	40%	30%	10%	1.3%
Chance if	4.5%	17%	41%	72%	94%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from GER; 144 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	< 1%	7%	27%	41%	22%	2.9%
Chance if	< 1%	1.6%	9%	28%	55%	80%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 138 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	71%	27%	2.3%
Chance if	15%	54%	92%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 135 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.3%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	8%	26%	55%	83%