Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Scotland and Denmark in group final at Hampden Park

Scotland host Denmark in a group final. Scotland need to win, while a
draw is enough for Denmark to win the group and avoid playoff.

Similarly, Austria host Bosnia in a group final. Here Bosnia need to
win to snatch the group win, while a draw is enough for Austria to
avoid playoff.

In Group J, we have a match between Wales and North Macedonia deciding
who will be runner-up in the group. Both countries are guaranteed
playoff regardless trhough their NL results, but tre 2nd place is
important for the seeding and home pitch advantage in the
playoff. Wales need to win to grab the 2nd place, while a draw is
enough for North Macedonia. The match is also affecting Albania
significantly, as they will end up in seed pot 2 if North Macedonia
finish second.

 

Important matches

Scotland vs DenmarkHome Win (38%)Draw (24%)Away Win (37%)
Scotland100%29%29%
Denmark63%100%100%

Austria vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaHome Win (85%)Draw (10%)Away Win (5%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina1.9%1.8%100%
Austria100%100%63%

Wales vs North MacedoniaHome Win (63%)Draw (20%)Away Win (17%)
Albania6%15%15%
North Macedonia9%6%6%
Wales25%20%20%

 Group B
Switzerland clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Kosovo (78%)




Average SimulationProbabilities
mpCountryPointGDAt least
Playoff		Top-2Group
Winner		World Cup
513Switzerland14.9+13100%100%99.98%99.99%
510Kosovo10.90100%100%< 1%3.5%
53Slovenia4-6
51Sweden2.8-7100%< 1%< 1%21%

Group C
Denmark clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Scotland (62%)
Scotland clinch qualifications if they win against Denmark (38%)



Average SimulationProbabilities
mpCountryPointGDAt least
Playoff		Top-2Group
Winner		World Cup
511Denmark12.4+11100%100%62%86%
510Scotland11.4+4100%100%38%56%
56Greece8.2-1
51Belarus1.6-14

Group E




Average SimulationProbabilities
mpCountryPointGDAt least
Playoff		Top-2Group
Winner		World Cup
515Spain17.7+22100%100%100%100%
512Turkey12.2+2100%100%< 1%51%
53Georgia4.7-6
50Bulgaria1-18

Group H
Austria clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Bosnia and Herzegovina (95%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina clinch qualifications if they win against Austria (5%)




Average SimulationProbabilities
mpCountryPointGDAt least
Playoff		Top-2Group
Winner		World Cup
718Austria20.6+20100%100%95%98.1%
716Bosnia and Herzegovina16.3+8100%100%5%7%
710Romania13+8100%< 1%< 1%18%
88Cyprus80
70San Marino0-36

Group J
Belgium clinch qualifications if they draw (or win) against Liechtenstein (100%)




Average SimulationProbabilities
mpCountryPointGDAt least
Playoff		Top-2Group
Winner		World Cup
715Belgium18+20100%100%99.79%99.92%
713Wales15.1+5100%63%< 1%23%
713North Macedonia13.7+8100%37%< 1%8%
88Kazakhstan8-4
70Liechtenstein0-29

Nations League Ranking

GroupTeamAt least
Playoff		NL SlotTop-2Group
Winner		World Cup
ESpain100%< 1%100%100%100%
AGermany100%< 1%100%100%100%
FPortugal100%< 1%100%100%100%
DFrance100%< 1%100%100%100%
KEngland100%< 1%100%100%100%
INorway100%< 1%100%100%100%
JWales100%37%63%< 1%23%
LCzechia100%< 1%100%< 1%27%
HRomania100%100%< 1%< 1%18%
BSweden100%100%< 1%< 1%21%
JNorth Macedonia100%63%37%< 1%8%
ANorthern Ireland100%100%< 1%< 1%7%

Playoff seed statistics
GroupTeamPot 4Pot 3Pot 2Pot 1Group
Winner
JBelgium< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.79%
IItaly< 1%< 1%< 1%100%< 1%
BSwitzerland< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%99.98%
CDenmark< 1%< 1%< 1%38%62%
HAustria< 1%< 1%< 1%5%95%
ETurkey< 1%< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%
DUkraine< 1%< 1%2.1%97.9%< 1%
GPoland< 1%< 1%42%58%< 1%
JWales37%< 1%62%< 1%< 1%
CScotland< 1%< 1%62%< 1%38%
BSweden100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
LCzechia< 1%< 1%>99.99%< 1%< 1%
ASlovakia< 1%3.3%96.7%< 1%< 1%
HRomania100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
KAlbania< 1%65%35%< 1%< 1%
FIreland< 1%100%< 1%< 1%< 1%
JNorth Macedonia63%37%< 1%< 1%< 1%
ANorthern Ireland100%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
HBosnia and Herzegovina< 1%95%< 1%< 1%5%
BKosovo< 1%99.98%< 1%< 1%< 1%

 

 

 

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