Champions League Matchday 6

Eleven teams have 11 or more points which guarantees a place in the knockout stage. Another four teams have 10 points and practically (99.99%) clinched a place in the knockout stage, but need another point to secure it mathematically. Another six teams can reach 11 points with a win next matchday and thereby clinch a place in the knockout stage as detailed below. Bayern can clinch a finish among top-8 with a win against St Gillis giving them 18 points, but most likely 15-16 points will suffice to finish top-8.

Clinching Scenarios

• Chelsea clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Paphos (94%)
• Newcastle clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against PSV (76%)
• Barcelona clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Slavia Praha (75%)
• Bayern clinch Top8 if they win against St Gillis (75%)
• Sporting clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Paris SG (55%)
• Juventus clinch knockout stage if they win against Benfica (50%)
• Leverkusen clinch knockout stage if they win against Olympiakos (48%)
• Marseille clinch knockout stage if they win against Liverpool (34%)
• Galatasaray clinch knockout stage if they win against Atletico (32%)
• PSV clinch knockout stage if they win against Newcastle (24%)
• Monaco clinch knockout stage if they win against Real Madrid (11%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	18	Arsenal	22	24-4	100%	100%	100%	100%	79%	58%	40%	25%
2	15	Bayern	19	21-8	100%	100%	98.7%	99.80%	72%	47%	28%	15%
3	13	Paris SG	17	21-9	100%	99.98%	84%	97.1%	68%	43%	24%	13%
4	13	Man City	17	17-7	100%	99.92%	89%	97.7%	65%	38%	20%	10%
5	12	Real Madrid	16	17-10	100%	98.3%	66%	92%	56%	29%	14%	7%
6	12	Liverpool	16	14-9	100%	98.2%	61%	90%	53%	25%	12%	5%
7	12	Atletico	16	19-15	100%	97.8%	59%	87%	44%	18%	7%	2.9%
8	13	Atalanta	16	11-8	100%	99.19%	62%	83%	32%	9%	2.6%	< 1%
9	12	Inter	15	15-8	100%	95.0%	40%	83%	46%	22%	10%	4.7%
10	11	Dortmund	14	21-15	100%	82%	23%	71%	30%	12%	4.3%	1.6%
11	10	Barcelona	14	19-13	>99.99%	93%	36%	82%	45%	22%	10%	4.6%
12	10	Chelsea	14	17-11	>99.99%	92%	29%	79%	42%	20%	9%	4.1%
13	11	Tottenham	14	15-9	100%	82%	23%	65%	23%	7%	2.2%	< 1%
14	10	Newcastle	13	16-10	>99.99%	68%	9%	64%	25%	10%	3.8%	1.4%
15	10	Sporting	13	14-11	99.99%	61%	10%	56%	18%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
16	9	Leverkusen	13	12-13	98.2%	59%	2.4%	62%	25%	11%	4.3%	1.8%
17	9	Juventus	12	17-15	98.1%	53%	3.7%	48%	14%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%
18	9	Marseille	12	13-11	97.5%	42%	3.8%	45%	12%	3.7%	1.0%	< 1%
19	9	Monaco	11	8-9	92%	21%	< 1%	28%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	PSV	10	17-13	82%	19%	< 1%	38%	12%	4.0%	1.2%	< 1%
21	9	Galatasaray	10	9-10	92%	17%	< 1%	28%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Napoli	10	9-13	75%	16%	< 1%	35%	11%	4.1%	1.3%	< 1%
23	6	Benfica	9	9-15	46%	3.3%	< 1%	17%	5%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Karabakh Agdam	8	14-20	39%	1.6%	< 1%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Brugge	8	12-19	34%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	6	St Gillis	8	10-18	24%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	5	Olympiakos	8	8-16	21%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	5	Bilbao	8	6-14	19%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	7	FC Kobenhavn	8	12-21	32%	1.6%	< 1%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	Frankfurt	7	11-18	21%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	6	Paphos	7	6-13	21%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Slavia Praha	6	4-14	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Bodoe Glimt	4	12-20	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	1	Villarreal	4	6-14	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	3	Ajax	4	8-22	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	1	Kairat	1	4-20	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	15-18	13	17-10	17	15-6
5%	10	13-18	13	17-13	16	19-8
25%	9	9-10	13	12-13	16	16-9
50%	9	10-15	12	15-11	16	10-8
75%	9	7-15	12	15-15	15	16-9
95%	8	10-16	11	13-9	15	21-20
99%	8	8-17	11	19-18	14	19-13