FA Cup 3rd round draw

Third round of FA Cup drawn. Tough draw for Villa, Spurs, United and Brighton, playing each other, which is reflected in their winning chances in simulation results below. In the league, Villa has now won the last five matches and taken 6.8 points more than expected.

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.8 more than expected
Everton: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 more than expected
Forest: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Bournemouth: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.7 less than expected
Burnley: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Liverpool: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Arsenal: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
33	Arsenal	81.3	+47	< 1%	99.99%	99.96%	99.90%	99.68%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%
31	Man City	73.0	+36	< 1%	99.04%	98.0%	96.0%	92%	15%	< 1%	3.4%	95.6%
30	Aston Villa	66.5	+14	< 1%	90%	84%	74%	61%	2.2%	3.1%	11%	80%
25	Chelsea	63.7	+21	< 1%	82%	73%	61%	45%	< 1%	8%	23%	60%
23	Liverpool	63.4	+14	< 1%	79%	70%	57%	41%	< 1%	6%	25%	55%
26	Crystal Palace	60.0	+10	< 1%	60%	47%	34%	21%	< 1%	6%	14%	62%
25	Man United	57.1	+4	< 1%	40%	29%	19%	10%	< 1%	11%	22%	18%
22	Newcastle	56.9	+7	< 1%	40%	29%	18%	10%	< 1%	16%	24%	17%
23	Brighton	56.5	+6	< 1%	37%	26%	16%	9%	< 1%	11%	21%	16%
24	Everton	54.0	-2	< 1%	21%	14%	8%	3.8%	< 1%	9%	15%	7%
22	Tottenham	53.4	+6	< 1%	21%	14%	8%	3.8%	< 1%	9%	15%	8%
19	Brentford	51.8	-1	1.1%	14%	8%	4.2%	1.9%	< 1%	9%	11%	4.0%
20	Bournemouth	51.5	-4	1.3%	12%	7%	3.8%	1.7%	< 1%	6%	9%	3.6%
17	Fulham	45.9	-9	9%	2.2%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	3.4%	< 1%
15	Forest	44.0	-16	15%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	8%
23	Sunderland	42.9	-20	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	Leeds	39.3	-23	42%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	West Ham	39.2	-22	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
10	Burnley	34.9	-26	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	22.5	-45	99.44%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	81%	30%	39%	24%
Man City	15%	17%	23%	9%
Aston Villa	2.2%	3.6%		28%
Chelsea	< 1%	10%	20%	4.9%
Liverpool	< 1%	12%		4.4%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	4.7%	3.4%	43%
Man United	< 1%	2.1%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.1%	10%	1.4%
Brighton	< 1%	2.1%
Everton	< 1%	2.5%
Tottenham	< 1%	2.0%		< 1%
Brentford	< 1%	2.9%	2.7%
Bournemouth	< 1%	1.3%
Fulham	< 1%	1.7%	2.0%
Forest		1.7%		8%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%