PL: Aston Villa joins the title race

After a slow start, Aston Villa have now taken 12 points in the last five matches (4 points more than expected), bringing them up to a 1% chance in the title race, and if they win at home against the front runner, Arsenal, their chances double to 2%.

 

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.0 more than expected
Everton: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Forest: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected
West Ham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.2 more than expected

Cold Teams
Bournemouth: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 6.0 less than expected
Burnley: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Tottenham: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 less than expected
Liverpool: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
33	Arsenal	82.9	+48	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.95%	99.83%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%
28	Man City	72.6	+35	< 1%	99.0%	97.9%	95.8%	92%	11%	< 1%	3.5%	95.4%
27	Aston Villa	64.7	+13	< 1%	85%	77%	66%	51%	1.1%	4.0%	14%	74%
22	Liverpool	64.1	+14	< 1%	83%	75%	64%	49%	< 1%	5%	21%	62%
24	Chelsea	64.1	+21	< 1%	84%	77%	65%	50%	< 1%	7%	21%	64%
23	Crystal Palace	58.2	+9	< 1%	51%	39%	27%	16%	< 1%	7%	13%	58%
22	Brighton	57.5	+8	< 1%	46%	34%	23%	13%	< 1%	11%	24%	22%
19	Newcastle	56.0	+7	< 1%	38%	27%	17%	9%	< 1%	16%	23%	16%
22	Man United	55.7	+1	< 1%	34%	24%	15%	8%	< 1%	10%	19%	14%
19	Brentford	52.9	+1	< 1%	20%	13%	7%	3.4%	< 1%	10%	14%	7%
21	Everton	52.8	-4	1.0%	18%	11%	6%	3.1%	< 1%	8%	13%	6%
19	Tottenham	52.2	+5	1.2%	18%	11%	6%	3.1%	< 1%	8%	13%	6%
19	Bournemouth	51.9	-4	1.4%	15%	10%	5%	2.5%	< 1%	7%	12%	5%
17	Fulham	47.4	-8	7%	4.6%	2.5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	4.5%	1.1%
15	Forest	45.0	-13	13%	2.0%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	2.8%	8%
23	Sunderland	43.2	-19	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
14	Leeds	39.3	-24	44%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	West Ham	38.9	-23	46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
10	Burnley	35.6	-26	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	23.7	-42	99.02%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	86%	29%	39%	24%
Man City	11%	14%	23%	9%
Aston Villa	1.1%	6%		28%
Liverpool	< 1%	10%		4.4%
Chelsea	< 1%	9%	20%	4.9%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	4.0%	3.4%	43%
Brighton	< 1%	3.9%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.8%	10%	1.4%
Man United	< 1%	2.7%
Brentford	< 1%	2.7%	2.7%
Everton	< 1%	2.4%
Tottenham	< 1%	2.6%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	2.9%
Fulham	< 1%	1.5%	2.0%
Forest	< 1%	1.7%		8%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Aston Villa vs Arsenal (2%)	Home Win (32%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (44%)
Arsenal	81%	85%	90%
Man City	14%	12%	8%
Aston Villa	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%