PL: crowded CL race.

Looking more and more like a three-horse race for the title, while the half the league are fighting over a spot in CL.

Coming weekend two important matches for the CL race, when Newcastle host Chelsea and Tottenham host Liverpool.

Important matches for CL race
Newcastle vs Chelsea (3.4%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Chelsea	60%	67%	77%
Newcastle	16%	9%	7%
Tottenham vs Liverpool (3%)	Home Win (37%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (39%)
Liverpool	56%	63%	73%
Tottenham	8%	4.4%	2.8%

 

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 7.1 more than expected
Sunderland: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Everton: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 more than expected
Forest: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Burnley: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Brentford: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.6 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
36	Arsenal	81.7	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.93%	99.72%	77%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%
34	Man City	74.6	+39	< 1%	99.68%	99.23%	98.1%	95.1%	19%	< 1%	1.7%	97.9%
33	Aston Villa	68.0	+15	< 1%	95%	90%	83%	69%	2.5%	1.9%	9%	87%
28	Chelsea	64.7	+22	< 1%	88%	81%	69%	50%	< 1%	6%	21%	68%
26	Liverpool	64.4	+15	< 1%	86%	78%	65%	46%	< 1%	4.7%	23%	64%
26	Crystal Palace	58.6	+8	< 1%	54%	41%	26%	14%	< 1%	7%	16%	57%
26	Man United	56.4	+4	< 1%	39%	27%	16%	8%	< 1%	12%	24%	15%
23	Brighton	55.6	+5	< 1%	35%	23%	13%	6%	< 1%	11%	22%	12%
22	Newcastle	55.1	+5	< 1%	32%	21%	12%	5%	< 1%	17%	23%	11%
24	Everton	53.3	-3	< 1%	20%	12%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	9%	15%	6%
22	Tottenham	52.3	+4	< 1%	18%	11%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	8%	14%	5%
21	Bournemouth	51.4	-3	1.3%	13%	7%	3.5%	1.3%	< 1%	7%	10%	3.4%
20	Brentford	50.8	-2	1.5%	12%	6%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	9%	11%	2.8%
20	Fulham	47.7	-8	4.9%	4.4%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5%	5%	< 1%
18	Forest	45.4	-13	10%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	3.0%	8%
26	Sunderland	44.9	-18	11%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.0%	< 1%
16	Leeds	39.5	-22	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	West Ham	38.0	-22	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
10	Burnley	33.4	-27	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	22.2	-43	99.52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	77%	30%	39%	25%
Man City	19%	17%	23%	10%
Aston Villa	2.5%	3.6%		28%
Chelsea	< 1%	10%	20%	4.2%
Liverpool	< 1%	12%		5%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	4.7%	3.4%	43%
Man United	< 1%	2.1%
Brighton	< 1%	2.1%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.1%	10%	1.4%
Everton	< 1%	2.5%
Tottenham	< 1%	2.0%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	1.3%
Brentford	< 1%	2.9%	2.7%
Fulham		1.7%	2.0%
Forest		1.7%		8%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%