PL: Will Aston Villa keep winning?

If Villa keep their streak going and beat Arsenal, they double their chances in the title race. If they lose, on the other hand, they half their chances. 

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 8.2 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 5.4 more than expected
Leeds: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Sunderland: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 5.3 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 less than expected
Newcastle: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
42	Arsenal	83.6	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.99%	99.91%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
40	Man City	76.6	+40	< 1%	99.94%	99.84%	99.45%	97.8%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	99.38%
39	Aston Villa	71.1	+17	< 1%	98.9%	97.6%	94%	85%	3.2%	< 1%	3.4%	95.6%
32	Liverpool	66.6	+15	< 1%	94%	90%	81%	62%	< 1%	2.5%	14%	80%
29	Chelsea	62.6	+21	< 1%	85%	75%	60%	33%	< 1%	7%	26%	59%
29	Man United	57.0	+4	< 1%	47%	33%	18%	7%	< 1%	12%	28%	18%
26	Crystal Palace	55.3	+3	< 1%	36%	23%	12%	4.1%	< 1%	7%	14%	47%
24	Brighton	53.8	+4	< 1%	27%	17%	8%	2.6%	< 1%	11%	20%	8%
26	Brentford	53.6	+3	< 1%	25%	15%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	11%	19%	7%
23	Newcastle	53.4	+4	< 1%	25%	15%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	18%	21%	7%
25	Tottenham	53.0	+4	< 1%	23%	14%	6%	1.9%	< 1%	10%	18%	6%
25	Everton	51.9	-3	< 1%	16%	9%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%	8%	14%	3.7%
26	Fulham	50.8	-6	1.1%	12%	6%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	10%	2.6%
22	Bournemouth	49.3	-7	2.0%	8%	4.0%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	5.0%	7%	1.5%
28	Sunderland	44.8	-17	8%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	1.0%	< 1%
18	Forest	43.2	-14	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	8%
20	Leeds	41.0	-19	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	West Ham	35.9	-25	66%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
12	Burnley	33.3	-26	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	20.6	-44	99.81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	78%	30%	45%	24%
Man City	19%	17%	29%	10%
Aston Villa	3.2%	3.6%		28%
Liverpool	< 1%	12%		5%
Chelsea	< 1%	10%	14%	4.1%
Man United	< 1%	2.1%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	4.7%		40%
Brighton	< 1%	2.1%
Brentford	< 1%	2.9%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.1%	11%	1.4%
Tottenham	< 1%	2.0%		< 1%
Everton	< 1%	2.5%
Fulham	< 1%	1.7%
Bournemouth		1.3%
Sunderland		< 1%
Forest		1.7%		8%
Leeds		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Aston Villa (3.1%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Arsenal	82%	73%	66%
Aston Villa	1.8%	3.9%	8%
Man City	16%	22%	25%

Important matches for CL race
Chelsea vs Bournemouth (2.7%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Chelsea	65%	52%	46%
Bournemouth	< 1%	1.5%	3.5%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brentford vs Tottenham (3.4%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Brentford	32%	23%	18%
Tottenham	18%	24%	34%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Brentford vs Tottenham (4.2%)	Home Win (49%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (27%)
Brentford	45%	33%	26%
Tottenham	27%	34%	46%