Arsenal top at Christmas

Both Man City and Aston Villa are in a winning streak, with 15 points in the last five games. 

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 6.8 more than expected
Sunderland: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Man City: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Leeds: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.5 more than expected
Fulham: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Bournemouth: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Wolves: 0 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Burnley: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.0 less than expected
Brighton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected
Tottenham: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 3.0 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
39	Arsenal	82.9	+46	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	99.86%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%
37	Man City	75.2	+40	< 1%	99.85%	99.59%	98.8%	96.1%	17%	< 1%	1.1%	98.7%
36	Aston Villa	69.0	+15	< 1%	97.3%	94%	88%	75%	2.4%	1.2%	7%	91%
29	Liverpool	66.0	+16	< 1%	93%	87%	77%	57%	< 1%	3.0%	17%	76%
29	Chelsea	64.5	+22	< 1%	90%	83%	70%	47%	< 1%	5%	21%	69%
26	Crystal Palace	57.1	+4	< 1%	47%	33%	18%	8%	< 1%	8%	17%	51%
26	Man United	55.6	+4	< 1%	37%	25%	13%	5%	< 1%	12%	25%	12%
23	Newcastle	54.6	+5	< 1%	32%	20%	10%	3.8%	< 1%	19%	25%	10%
24	Brighton	54.3	+4	< 1%	30%	19%	9%	3.4%	< 1%	12%	21%	9%
24	Everton	52.3	-3	< 1%	18%	10%	4.4%	1.5%	< 1%	9%	15%	4.3%
23	Brentford	52.2	+0	< 1%	19%	11%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%	9%	16%	4.4%
22	Tottenham	50.9	+3	1.4%	14%	8%	3.3%	1.1%	< 1%	8%	13%	3.2%
22	Bournemouth	50.4	-4	1.8%	11%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	10%	2.3%
23	Fulham	49.0	-7	3.2%	7%	3.7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	7%	1.4%
27	Sunderland	45.3	-17	10%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	1.4%	< 1%
18	Forest	44.3	-14	14%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	2.7%	8%
19	Leeds	41.2	-19	29%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	West Ham	37.5	-24	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
11	Burnley	33.7	-26	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Wolves	21.0	-45	99.81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	79%	30%	37%	24%
Man City	17%	17%	31%	10%
Aston Villa	2.4%	3.6%		28%
Liverpool	< 1%	12%		5%
Chelsea	< 1%	10%	17%	4.1%
Crystal Palace	< 1%	4.7%	2.9%	40%
Man United	< 1%	2.1%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.1%	12%	1.4%
Brighton	< 1%	2.1%
Everton	< 1%	2.5%
Brentford	< 1%	2.9%
Tottenham	< 1%	2.0%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	1.3%
Fulham		1.7%
Sunderland		< 1%
Forest		1.7%		8%
Leeds		< 1%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%