Conference League Last 24

Below are the probabilities for the knockout phase of Conference League. 

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Strasbourg	16	11-5	100%	73%	41%	29%	16%
2	14	Rakow	14	9-2	100%	47%	15%	6%	1.9%
3	13	AEK	13	14-7	100%	60%	30%	9%	3.1%
4	13	Sparta Praha	13	10-3	100%	64%	34%	11%	4.2%
5	13	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-7	100%	78%	50%	21%	9%
6	13	Shakhtar	13	10-5	100%	65%	32%	10%	3.2%
7	13	Mainz	13	7-3	100%	55%	31%	20%	9%
8	12	Larnaca	12	7-1	100%	37%	11%	4.3%	1.1%
9	11	Lausanne	11	6-3	59%	16%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
10	10	Crystal Palace	10	11-6	96.6%	82%	65%	55%	40%
11	10	Lech	10	12-8	83%	27%	11%	2.3%	< 1%
12	10	Samsunspor	10	10-6	82%	26%	10%	2.1%	< 1%
13	10	Celje	10	8-7	78%	26%	9%	1.8%	< 1%
14	10	Alkmaar	10	7-7	89%	47%	24%	8%	3.0%
15	9	Fiorentina	9	8-5	76%	44%	22%	15%	7%
16	9	Rijeka	9	5-2	29%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Jagiellonia	9	5-4	50%	17%	5%	2.1%	< 1%
18	8	Omonia	8	5-4	46%	14%	3.7%	1.3%	< 1%
19	8	Noah	8	6-7	18%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-8	15%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Kuopio	7	6-5	21%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Shkendija	7	4-5	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	15%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Sigma Olomouc	7	7-9	29%	8%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95.9%	19.4	12.56	25.83
ITA	38%	15.92	9	24.64
GER	36%	15.85	9.71	24.21
POL	17%	15.2	12	22.5
POR	7%	13.67	8.4	23
ESP	4.2%	13.61	8.56	20.88
FRA	1.3%	12.68	7.44	20.36
GRE	< 1%	10.88	7.6	19.7
CYP	< 1%	10.95	9.13	19.13
CZE	< 1%	9.59	6.7	17.8
DEN	< 1%	9.91	7.63	17
TUR	< 1%	9.33	5.8	17.3
NED	< 1%	8.89	5.58	16.17
BEL	< 1%	7.07	4.5	16

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 254 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.3%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4.3%
Chance if	< 1%	3.5%	18%	47%	76%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 230 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.2%	10%	28%	35%	21%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	1.9%	12%	37%	67%	89%	98%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 229 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	15%	38%	32%	12%	2.1%
Chance if	3.7%	18%	49%	81%	97%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 226 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	20%	41%	28%	9%	1.4%
Chance if	7%	26%	59%	88%	98.9%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 167 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	< 1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	6%
Chance if	< 1%	2.4%	13%	35%	62%	83%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	28%	54%	18%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	15%	48%	83%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 140 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	72%	26%	2.3%
Chance if	7%	39%	88%

Number of finalists from GER; 135 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	41%	42%	15%	2.1%
Chance if	16%	40%	71%	93%

Number of finalists from ITA; 133 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	45%	41%	12%	1.4%
Chance if	19%	46%	78%	96%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from GER; 114 mbit

n	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	2.2%	17%	44%	35%	1.9%
Chance if	1.8%	10%	29%	56%	82%