PL: Wolves, Burnley and West Ham likely relegated

Wolves, Burnley, and West Ham are relegated in 61% of simulations. Wolves and West Ham play on Saturday in a crucial match, especially for West Ham.

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs West Ham (2.7%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
West Ham	23%	28%	39%
Forest	79%	77%	72%
Leeds	92%	91%	89%

 

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.2 more than expected
Fulham: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Man City: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 more than expected
Sunderland: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 1.8 more than expected
Leeds: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 1.7 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brighton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 less than expected
Burnley: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.2 less than expected
West Ham: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 3.1 less than expected
Forest: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
45	Arsenal	85.1	+48	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	80%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
41	Man City	77.7	+43	< 1%	99.99%	99.96%	99.83%	99.22%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	99.83%
39	Aston Villa	72.7	+19	< 1%	99.64%	99.15%	97.8%	93%	2.7%	< 1%	1.2%	98.5%
33	Liverpool	66.5	+16	< 1%	95.5%	92%	84%	68%	< 1%	2.0%	11%	85%
30	Chelsea	59.5	+16	< 1%	72%	60%	42%	17%	< 1%	11%	29%	43%
30	Man United	56.2	+4	< 1%	45%	32%	18%	6%	< 1%	12%	26%	18%
26	Newcastle	55.1	+6	< 1%	39%	27%	14%	4.4%	< 1%	16%	25%	15%
28	Everton	54.1	-0	< 1%	30%	20%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	11%	20%	10%
27	Brentford	53.3	+3	< 1%	26%	17%	8%	2.2%	< 1%	10%	19%	8%
26	Tottenham	52.7	+5	< 1%	24%	15%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	10%	16%	8%
25	Brighton	52.2	+2	< 1%	21%	13%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	9%	15%	6%
27	Fulham	51.9	-4	< 1%	18%	11%	5.0%	1.3%	< 1%	8%	13%	4.9%
27	Crystal Palace	51.9	-2	< 1%	18%	11%	5.0%	1.2%	< 1%	4.9%	44%	4.8%
23	Bournemouth	47.6	-9	2.4%	5%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	4.3%	< 1%
29	Sunderland	47.1	-12	2.4%	3.6%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	2.7%	< 1%
21	Leeds	43.6	-13	9%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%
18	Forest	40.3	-19	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	6%
14	West Ham	34.8	-26	71%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Burnley	30.6	-30	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3	Wolves	19.8	-45	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	80%	30%	47%	26%
Man City	17%	21%	34%	14%
Aston Villa	2.7%	5%		36%
Liverpool	< 1%	13%		7%
Chelsea	< 1%	6%	10%	2.5%
Man United	< 1%	2.3%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.0%	10%	1.5%
Everton	< 1%	2.4%
Brentford	< 1%	3.0%
Tottenham		1.6%		< 1%
Brighton		1.4%
Fulham		2.1%
Crystal Palace		2.5%		37%
Bournemouth		< 1%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		< 1%
Forest		1.1%		6%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

61%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
17%	Burnley, Forest, Wolves
6%	Burnley, Leeds, Wolves
6%	Forest, West Ham, Wolves
2.0%	Leeds, West Ham, Wolves
1.8%	Bournemouth, Burnley, Wolves
1.7%	Burnley, Sunderland, Wolves