PL: West Ham and Forest in relegation battle

West Ham play Forest in a potentially season defining match on Wednesday. Chelsea play Fulham in a match important for the tight CL race, and on Thursday the Champions travel to Emirates to play the league leaders.  

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
48	Arsenal	86.2	+49	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
42	Man City	76.7	+42	< 1%	99.98%	99.94%	99.80%	99.04%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	99.80%
42	Aston Villa	73.5	+20	< 1%	99.81%	99.49%	98.6%	95.3%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	99.00%
34	Liverpool	65.9	+15	< 1%	95.1%	91%	83%	65%	< 1%	2.2%	12%	83%
31	Chelsea	59.8	+17	< 1%	74%	62%	44%	19%	< 1%	10%	29%	45%
29	Newcastle	56.3	+8	< 1%	47%	33%	19%	6%	< 1%	16%	28%	19%
31	Man United	55.9	+4	< 1%	43%	30%	16%	5%	< 1%	12%	26%	16%
30	Brentford	55.2	+5	< 1%	39%	26%	13%	4.1%	< 1%	12%	25%	13%
28	Brighton	53.1	+3	< 1%	25%	16%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	10%	17%	7%
28	Everton	52.5	-3	< 1%	20%	12%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	9%	15%	5%
28	Fulham	51.7	-3	< 1%	17%	10%	4.2%	1.0%	< 1%	8%	13%	4.1%
27	Tottenham	51.6	+3	< 1%	18%	10%	4.6%	1.2%	< 1%	8%	13%	5%
27	Crystal Palace	51.0	-4	< 1%	14%	8%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	43%	3.1%
30	Sunderland	47.4	-11	1.3%	3.7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	2.8%	< 1%
23	Bournemouth	46.7	-9	2.2%	3.5%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	3.3%	< 1%
22	Leeds	43.2	-13	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%
18	Forest	39.6	-20	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	6%
14	West Ham	33.5	-29	76%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	Burnley	29.9	-31	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
6	Wolves	21.4	-42	99.68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	87%	30%	47%	26%
Man City	10%	21%	34%	14%
Aston Villa	2.7%	5%		36%
Liverpool	< 1%	13%		7%
Chelsea	< 1%	6%	10%	2.5%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.0%	10%	1.5%
Man United	< 1%	2.3%
Brentford		3.0%
Brighton		1.4%
Everton		2.4%
Fulham		2.1%
Tottenham		1.6%		< 1%
Crystal Palace		2.5%		37%
Sunderland		< 1%
Bournemouth		< 1%
Leeds		< 1%
Forest		1.1%		6%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Liverpool (2.1%)	Home Win (61%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (18%)
Arsenal	90%	84%	80%
Man City	8%	13%	15%
Aston Villa	2.0%	3.5%	4.4%

Important matches for CL race
Fulham vs Chelsea (3.6%)	Home Win (39%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (37%)
Chelsea	36%	43%	55%
Fulham	7%	3.2%	1.8%

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Forest (6.9%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
West Ham	34%	21%	13%
Forest	69%	80%	89%