PL: Chelsea vs Brentford in CL race

All top teams drew and Arsenal are now 88% favorites.  Next weekend Chelsea host Brentford in a key match in the CL race.

Hot Teams
Brentford: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 more than expected
Fulham: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.2 more than expected
Arsenal: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 2.8 more than expected
Aston Villa: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 5 matches, 1.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
West Ham: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 5.1 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Chelsea: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.8 less than expected
Everton: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 less than expected
Forest: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
49	Arsenal	85.2	+48	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
43	Man City	75.5	+41	< 1%	99.97%	99.92%	99.70%	98.7%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	99.72%
43	Aston Villa	73.1	+20	< 1%	99.81%	99.51%	98.6%	95.5%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	99.03%
35	Liverpool	66.2	+16	< 1%	95.8%	92%	85%	69%	< 1%	1.9%	10%	86%
31	Chelsea	58.4	+16	< 1%	66%	53%	35%	13%	< 1%	13%	31%	36%
32	Newcastle	57.2	+7	< 1%	54%	40%	24%	8%	< 1%	15%	29%	24%
33	Brentford	56.0	+7	< 1%	45%	32%	18%	5%	< 1%	13%	27%	17%
32	Man United	55.4	+4	< 1%	39%	27%	14%	4.3%	< 1%	12%	24%	14%
29	Brighton	53.5	+5	< 1%	28%	17%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	11%	18%	8%
31	Fulham	53.3	-3	< 1%	24%	14%	7%	1.7%	< 1%	10%	17%	7%
29	Everton	51.3	-4	< 1%	14%	8%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	12%	3.3%
28	Crystal Palace	50.7	-3	< 1%	12%	7%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	4.0%	42%	2.7%
27	Tottenham	50.5	+3	< 1%	13%	7%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	10%	3.6%
26	Bournemouth	48.1	-9	< 1%	5%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	4.3%	< 1%
30	Sunderland	46.8	-13	1.3%	2.6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	2.0%	< 1%
22	Leeds	42.4	-13	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
21	Forest	41.4	-18	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	6%
14	West Ham	31.9	-31	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	Burnley	29.7	-31	93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
7	Wolves	21.7	-41	99.72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	88%	30%	47%	26%
Man City	9%	21%	34%	14%
Aston Villa	3.0%	5%		36%
Liverpool	< 1%	13%		7%
Chelsea	< 1%	6%	10%	2.5%
Newcastle	< 1%	4.0%	10%	1.5%
Brentford	< 1%	3.0%
Man United	< 1%	2.3%
Brighton		1.4%
Fulham		2.1%
Everton		2.4%
Crystal Palace		2.5%		37%
Tottenham		1.6%		< 1%
Bournemouth		< 1%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		< 1%
Forest		1.1%		6%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for CL race
Chelsea vs Brentford (4.9%)	Home Win (56%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (22%)
Chelsea	43%	30%	23%
Brentford	12%	18%	29%
Wolves vs Newcastle (2.1%)	Home Win (26%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (51%)
Newcastle	16%	20%	30%
Chelsea	38%	37%	34%

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Tottenham vs West Ham (2%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
West Ham	11%	14%	23%
Forest	90%	89%	86%
Leeds	93%	92%	90%
Tottenham	99.93%	99.7%	99.2%

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

79%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
7%	Burnley, Forest, Wolves
4.8%	Burnley, Leeds, Wolves
3.9%	Forest, West Ham, Wolves
2.4%	Leeds, West Ham, Wolves