Thursday, January 22, 2026

CL: PSG vs Newcastle in decided and other conditions for the last matchday

Sixteen teams have qualified for the knockout stage and 16 teams fighting over the remaining eight slots. Conditions are listed below with Brugge vs Marseille being the most important - statistically speaking.

Two teams have qualified for the top-8 (avoiding the playoff round) and 15 teams are fighting over the remaining six spots. Below are the conditions listed with PSG vs Newcastle being listed as the most important, as basically the winner clinch top-8, while the loser is out of chance. 


PosPtsTeamPtsGDTop 24Top 16Top 8R16QFSemiFinalChamp



121Arsenal2425-3100%100%100%100%80%59%41%26%
218Bayern1922-9100%100%100%100%73%47%29%15%
315Liverpool1818-10100%100%95.1%99.0%65%35%17%8%
413Paris SG1622-11100%100%64%94%63%37%19%9%
515Real Madrid1620-9100%100%80%95%56%26%11%4.8%
613Barcelona1621-14100%100%81%96.5%61%32%16%7%
713Man City1615-9100%>99.99%66%95%67%39%24%13%
813Atletico1618-13100%>99.99%55%88%43%16%6%2.5%
914Tottenham1516-8100%100%45%80%33%10%2.9%< 1%
1013Chelsea1415-9100%>99.99%33%81%39%17%7%2.7%
1113Sporting1415-10100%>99.99%34%77%30%10%3.1%1.1%
1213Atalanta1411-10100%99.94%15%64%20%5%1.5%< 1%
1313Newcastle1317-8100%100%20%77%34%14%4.9%1.8%
1412Inter1314-8100%95.4%6%77%35%17%8%3.7%
1512Juventus1315-11100%95%4.6%61%18%6%1.8%< 1%
1611Dortmund1221-17100%69%1.3%65%23%9%3.4%1.3%
179Leverkusen1212-1593%12%< 1%48%15%6%2.3%< 1%
189Marseille1012-1293%13%< 1%36%9%2.6%< 1%< 1%
1910Galatasaray1010-1299.84%9%< 1%29%5%1.2%< 1%< 1%
2010Karabakh Agdam1013-1799.45%4.6%< 1%10%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
219Monaco109-1576%3.2%< 1%22%3.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%
228PSV915-1457%< 1%< 1%24%7%2.2%< 1%< 1%
238Bilbao98-1254%< 1%< 1%15%2.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%
248Olympiakos99-1449%< 1%< 1%11%1.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%
258Napoli98-1355%< 1%< 1%24%8%2.6%< 1%< 1%
267Brugge813-1842%< 1%< 1%12%2.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%
278FC Kobenhavn811-1910%< 1%< 1%1.3%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
286Benfica77-1128%< 1%< 1%11%4.0%1.1%< 1%< 1%
296Paphos75-1117%< 1%< 1%1.8%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
306St Gillis78-188%< 1%< 1%1.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
316Ajax78-2010%< 1%< 1%1.4%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%
326Bodoe Glimt614-1810%< 1%< 1%1.9%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%

Expected Requirement

Top 24Top 16Top 8

PtsGDPtsGDPtsGD
1%1013-161313-121623-15
5%1011-171317-181622-15
25%911-131221-171619-13
50%911-161215-121615-10
75%910-171214-131517-7
95%816-16129-141420-10
99%813-181119-171415-9



Important for Top-8
Paris SG vs Newcastle (153.1%)Home Win (61%)Draw (21%)Away Win (19%)
Paris SG100%18%< 1%
Newcastle< 1%4.7%>99.99%
Napoli vs Chelsea (87.9%)Home Win (42%)Draw (24%)Away Win (34%)
Chelsea< 1%2.4%94%
Bilbao vs Sporting (78.7%)Home Win (36%)Draw (24%)Away Win (40%)
Sporting< 1%< 1%84%
Frankfurt vs Tottenham (78.7%)Home Win (39%)Draw (24%)Away Win (36%)
Tottenham5%26%100%
Barcelona vs FC Kobenhavn (65.7%)Home Win (82%)Draw (11%)Away Win (6%)
Barcelona97.9%2.4%< 1%
Man City vs Galatasaray (60.7%)Home Win (77%)Draw (14%)Away Win (9%)
Man City86%< 1%< 1%
Atletico vs Bodoe Glimt (55.7%)Home Win (73%)Draw (16%)Away Win (11%)
Atletico76%< 1%< 1%
Benfica vs Real Madrid (40.3%)Home Win (37%)Draw (24%)Away Win (39%)
Real Madrid47%100%100%
Atletico66%49%49%
St Gillis vs Atalanta (30%)Home Win (39%)Draw (24%)Away Win (37%)
Atalanta< 1%< 1%41%
Real Madrid84%85%73%
Liverpool vs Karabakh Agdam (20.9%)Home Win (85%)Draw (10%)Away Win (5%)
Liverpool100%88%24%
Dortmund vs Inter (12.7%)Home Win (42%)Draw (24%)Away Win (34%)
Inter< 1%< 1%17%
Dortmund3.1%< 1%< 1%
Juventus6%6%2.1%
Monaco vs Juventus (7.8%)Home Win (38%)Draw (24%)Away Win (38%)
Juventus< 1%< 1%12%
Dortmund1.9%1.9%< 1%

Important for Knockout Stage
Brugge vs Marseille (112.2%)Home Win (41%)Draw (24%)Away Win (34%)
Brugge99.88%2.5%< 1%
Marseille82%99.98%100%
Ajax vs Olympiakos (98.2%)Home Win (40%)Draw (24%)Away Win (35%)
Olympiakos< 1%58%>99.99%
Ajax24%< 1%< 1%
Bilbao vs Sporting (86.1%)Home Win (36%)Draw (24%)Away Win (40%)
Bilbao>99.99%72%1.6%
Napoli vs Chelsea (85.6%)Home Win (42%)Draw (24%)Away Win (34%)
Napoli>99.99%55%< 1%
PSV vs Bayern (81.8%)Home Win (29%)Draw (24%)Away Win (48%)
PSV100%96.4%11%
Benfica vs Real Madrid (64.4%)Home Win (37%)Draw (24%)Away Win (39%)
Benfica76%< 1%< 1%
Monaco vs Juventus (47.6%)Home Win (38%)Draw (24%)Away Win (38%)
Monaco100%98.5%37%
Atletico vs Bodoe Glimt (43.7%)Home Win (73%)Draw (16%)Away Win (11%)
Bodoe Glimt< 1%< 1%87%
Barcelona vs FC Kobenhavn (40.2%)Home Win (82%)Draw (11%)Away Win (6%)
FC Kobenhavn< 1%32%99.9%
Paphos vs Slavia Praha (37.5%)Home Win (34%)Draw (24%)Away Win (42%)
Paphos49%< 1%< 1%
Leverkusen vs Villarreal (20.2%)Home Win (59%)Draw (21%)Away Win (20%)
Leverkusen100%99.6%65%
St Gillis vs Atalanta (14.2%)Home Win (39%)Draw (24%)Away Win (37%)
St Gillis21%< 1%< 1%
Ajax5%12%12%


 

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