EL: Before the last match day

19 teams have already clinched knockout stage with 11 teams fighting over the remaining 5 places. 10 points is likely enough to advance to the knockout stage and 9 points will possible suffice. 

Lyon and Aston Villa have already clinched a top-8 spot with 18 points. 16 points will likely be enough but in some simulations 17 points are needed.

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	18	Lyon	21	16-4	100%	100%	100%	100%	61%	33%	16%	6%
2	18	Aston Villa	21	14-4	100%	100%	100%	100%	84%	67%	52%	36%
3	16	Midtjylland	19	18-9	100%	100%	97.6%	99.25%	52%	21%	7%	2.6%
4	16	Braga	19	12-5	100%	100%	92%	97.4%	50%	20%	7%	2.4%
5	15	Roma	18	13-5	100%	100%	79%	96.0%	67%	41%	23%	12%
6	14	Betis	17	13-7	100%	99.76%	65%	91%	57%	31%	15%	7%
7	17	Freiburg	17	12-6	100%	100%	99.16%	99.80%	59%	28%	12%	4.6%
8	14	Porto	17	12-6	100%	99.75%	76%	94%	61%	33%	17%	8%
9	13	Genk	16	11-7	100%	96.4%	35%	66%	20%	4.5%	1.1%	< 1%
10	12	Stuttgart	15	14-7	100%	94%	11%	76%	42%	20%	9%	4.1%
11	12	Bologna	15	13-8	100%	82%	4.4%	73%	39%	20%	9%	4.1%
12	15	Ferencvaros	15	14-11	100%	100%	20%	53%	13%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
13	11	Forest	14	13-7	100%	80%	< 1%	73%	39%	22%	11%	4.8%
14	11	Fenerbahce	14	10-6	100%	55%	< 1%	63%	27%	13%	4.9%	1.8%
15	13	Crvena Zvezda	14	7-6	100%	86%	9%	46%	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
16	13	Dinamo Zagreb	13	15-12	100%	87%	11%	40%	9%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
17	12	PAOK	12	16-12	100%	49%	1.5%	48%	13%	4.0%	1.1%	< 1%
18	11	Viktoria Plzen	12	8-4	100%	38%	< 1%	40%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
19	9	Lille	12	12-9	99.36%	11%	< 1%	67%	33%	19%	9%	4.1%
20	11	Panathinaikos	11	11-10	100%	21%	< 1%	34%	7%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
21	8	Celtic	11	10-13	72%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
22	9	Brann	10	10-11	92%	< 1%	< 1%	28%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Celta	10	12-14	92%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	24%	10%	3.7%	1.4%
24	9	Young Boys	9	9-16	47%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	7	Razgrad	8	12-16	34%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	6	Basel	7	11-14	36%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	6	Feyenoord	6	10-14	13%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	6	Salzburg	6	10-17	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	6	Steaua	6	10-18	8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	6	Go Ahead Eagles	6	7-17	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	11-12	14	13-8	17	14-6
5%	10	13-16	14	12-8	17	13-7
25%	9	12-14	13	12-8	16	17-10
50%	9	12-16	13	8-8	16	13-8
75%	9	9-15	12	15-11	16	10-6
95%	9	10-21	12	12-9	15	14-8
99%	8	11-17	12	11-9	15	12-7

Important for Top-8
Betis vs Feyenoord (106.4%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Betis	99.68%	3.9%	< 1%
Genk	26%	54%	53%
Porto vs Rangers (87.6%)	Home Win (76%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (9%)
Porto	99.1%	2.0%	< 1%
Stuttgart	6%	24%	25%
Panathinaikos vs Roma (69.1%)	Home Win (22%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (57%)
Roma	11%	94%	100%
Stuttgart	25%	7%	7%
Genk	55%	31%	29%
Forest vs Ferencvaros (64.9%)	Home Win (73%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (11%)
Ferencvaros	< 1%	53%	100%
Freiburg	100%	100%	92%
Midtjylland vs Dinamo Zagreb (52.1%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (15%)
Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	< 1%	70%
Midtjylland	100%	99.99%	84%
Genk vs Malmoe (45.2%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Genk	56%	< 1%	< 1%
Stuttgart	4.9%	21%	21%
Crvena Zvezda	4.5%	16%	16%
Bologna	1.7%	9%	9%
Go Ahead Eagles vs Braga (20.5%)	Home Win (25%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Braga	67%	99.3%	100%
Genk	47%	32%	32%
Crvena Zvezda vs Celta (19.3%)	Home Win (35%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (41%)
Crvena Zvezda	25%	< 1%	< 1%
Stuttgart	3.0%	15%	15%
Bologna	1.0%	6%	6%
Stuttgart vs Young Boys (6.3%)	Home Win (77%)	Draw (14%)	Away Win (9%)
Stuttgart	14%	< 1%	< 1%
Bologna	3.3%	8%	8%
PAOK	1.3%	2.4%	2.5%

Important for Knockout Stage
Razgrad vs Nice (98.5%)	Home Win (33%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (43%)
Razgrad	98.8%	6%	< 1%
Young Boys	27%	57%	56%
Basel vs Viktoria Plzen (84.7%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Basel	84%	< 1%	< 1%
Young Boys	30%	60%	60%
Celtic vs Utrecht (67.4%)	Home Win (53%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Celtic	100%	69%	11%
Young Boys	39%	40%	71%
Betis vs Feyenoord (52.6%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Feyenoord	< 1%	< 1%	81%
Stuttgart vs Young Boys (36.3%)	Home Win (77%)	Draw (14%)	Away Win (9%)
Young Boys	32%	95%	100%
Brann	95.2%	83%	83%
Celta	95.1%	84%	83%
Steaua vs Fenerbahce (23.5%)	Home Win (24%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (54%)
Steaua	35%	< 1%	< 1%
Young Boys	29%	52%	52%
Aston Villa vs Salzburg (14.8%)	Home Win (87%)	Draw (9%)	Away Win (4%)
Salzburg	< 1%	< 1%	60%
Crvena Zvezda vs Celta (13.9%)	Home Win (35%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (41%)
Celta	79%	99.7%	100%
Brann	95.4%	91%	91%
Sturm Graz vs Brann (12.6%)	Home Win (41%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (35%)
Brann	81%	99.92%	100%
Go Ahead Eagles vs Braga (8.5%)	Home Win (25%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (53%)
Go Ahead Eagles	14%	< 1%	< 1%
Young Boys	41%	49%	49%