CL: Arenal stunned by Man United at Emirates

Man United stun Arsenal at Emirates and are now contenders in the CL race (39%) after beating both Man City and Arsenal. Arsenal chances on the title down to 81% and if they would lose to Leeds next week they are down to 72%. Next week we also have Newcastle traveling to Anfield for an important match in the CL race. 

Hot Teams
Bournemouth: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.5 more than expected
Man United: 9 points in the last 5 matches, 2.3 more than expected
Wolves: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Forest: 7 points in the last 5 matches, 2.0 more than expected
Fulham: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 1.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.9 less than expected
Tottenham: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 4.7 less than expected
Man City: 6 points in the last 5 matches, 4.6 less than expected
Liverpool: 4 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 less than expected
Arsenal: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 2.4 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
50	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.98%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
46	Man City	74.3	+38	< 1%	99.97%	99.90%	99.62%	98.4%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	99.65%
46	Aston Villa	72.8	+20	< 1%	99.90%	99.67%	98.8%	95.9%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	99.22%
36	Liverpool	63.2	+13	< 1%	91%	83%	69%	46%	< 1%	3.9%	20%	71%
37	Chelsea	61.2	+19	< 1%	86%	75%	57%	31%	< 1%	7%	28%	57%
38	Man United	59.7	+9	< 1%	74%	60%	39%	19%	< 1%	10%	33%	39%
33	Newcastle	54.9	+5	< 1%	37%	23%	11%	3.6%	< 1%	14%	26%	12%
32	Everton	53.5	-2	< 1%	25%	15%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	12%	17%	7%
34	Fulham	53.5	-3	< 1%	24%	13%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	12%	19%	6%
33	Brentford	53.3	+3	< 1%	25%	14%	6%	1.8%	< 1%	12%	21%	6%
30	Brighton	51.5	+3	< 1%	16%	9%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	13%	3.5%
30	Bournemouth	49.9	-7	< 1%	8%	3.9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	7%	1.3%
28	Tottenham	48.0	+1	1.3%	5%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	4.0%	1.7%
28	Crystal Palace	47.8	-7	1.8%	3.7%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	38%	< 1%
33	Sunderland	47.6	-13	1.6%	2.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	2.7%	< 1%
25	Leeds	43.9	-12	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%
25	Forest	43.7	-14	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%
20	West Ham	35.3	-27	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%
15	Burnley	29.9	-29	96.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	Wolves	21.4	-40	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	81%	36%	52%	26%
Man City	13%	24%	44%	13%
Aston Villa	6%	8%		36%
Liverpool	< 1%	11%		8%
Chelsea	< 1%	7%	3.1%	2.7%
Man United	< 1%
Newcastle	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	1.8%
Everton	< 1%
Fulham	< 1%	2.2%
Brentford	< 1%	3.9%
Brighton		1.3%
Tottenham				< 1%
Crystal Palace				37%
Sunderland		< 1%
Leeds		1.2%
Forest				4.8%
West Ham		< 1%
Burnley		< 1%
Wolves		< 1%

Important matches for title race
Leeds vs Arsenal (2.9%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (61%)
Arsenal	72%	77%	85%
Man City	19%	16%	10%
Aston Villa	9%	7%	4.3%

 

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Newcastle (4.2%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Liverpool	78%	66%	58%
Newcastle	9%	13%	22%
Chelsea vs West Ham (2.6%)	Home Win (67%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (15%)
Chelsea	63%	49%	42%
Man United	38%	42%	44%
Liverpool	70%	73%	75%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brighton vs Everton (4.3%)	Home Win (51%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (26%)
Everton	18%	24%	36%
Brighton	22%	13%	9%
Liverpool vs Newcastle (3.7%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Newcastle	32%	39%	54%
Liverpool	95%	90%	85%