European Competetions - Last 24 Draw

Below are the updated probabilities as well as the bracket after the the playoff draw.

Champions League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	24	Arsenal	24	23-4	100%	83%	59%	43%	27%
2	21	Bayern	21	22-8	100%	76%	47%	30%	16%
3	18	Liverpool	18	20-8	100%	71%	40%	17%	8%
4	17	Tottenham	17	17-7	100%	52%	18%	4.5%	1.5%
5	16	Barcelona	16	22-14	100%	59%	36%	16%	8%
6	16	Chelsea	16	17-10	100%	51%	27%	9%	3.7%
7	16	Sporting	16	17-11	100%	42%	11%	4.2%	1.4%
8	16	Man City	16	15-9	100%	68%	35%	23%	13%
9	15	Real Madrid	15	21-12	68%	33%	12%	6%	2.7%
10	15	Inter	15	15-7	87%	44%	17%	9%	4.2%
11	14	Paris SG	14	21-11	86%	49%	33%	16%	8%
12	14	Newcastle	14	17-7	91%	37%	18%	6%	2.1%
13	13	Juventus	13	14-10	66%	25%	8%	2.0%	< 1%
14	13	Atletico	13	17-15	75%	36%	17%	6%	2.2%
15	13	Atalanta	13	10-10	40%	7%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
16	12	Leverkusen	12	13-14	78%	19%	7%	3.3%	1.2%
17	11	Dortmund	11	19-17	60%	15%	6%	2.6%	< 1%
18	11	Olympiakos	11	10-14	22%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	10	Brugge	10	15-17	25%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Galatasaray	10	9-11	34%	9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Monaco	10	8-14	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Karabakh Agdam	10	13-21	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	9	Bodoe Glimt	9	14-15	13%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Benfica	9	10-12	32%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (86%)
		Paris SG (49%) Barcelona (26%) Chelsea (22%)
Chelsea (50%) Barcelona (50%)
				Paris SG (33%) Liverpool (20%) Barcelona (16%) Chelsea (12%)
Juventus (66%) Galatasaray (34%)
		Liverpool (38%) Tottenham (28%) Juventus (25%)
Tottenham (50%) Liverpool (50%)
						Arsenal (21%) Paris SG (16%) Bayern (15%) Man City (11%) Liverpool (9%)
Real Madrid (68%) Benfica (32%)
		Man City (35%) Real Madrid (33%) Sporting (22%)
Sporting (50%) Man City (50%)
				Arsenal (30%) Bayern (24%) Man City (18%) Real Madrid (12%)
Dortmund (60%) Atalanta (40%)
		Arsenal (41%) Bayern (38%) Dortmund (15%)
Arsenal (50%) Bayern (50%)
								Arsenal (27%) Bayern (16%) Man City (13%) Liverpool (8%)
Newcastle (91%)
		Newcastle (37%) Barcelona (33%) Chelsea (29%)
Barcelona (50%) Chelsea (50%)
				Barcelona (20%) Liverpool (20%) Newcastle (18%) Atletico (17%) Chelsea (15%)
Atletico (75%) Brugge (25%)
		Atletico (36%) Liverpool (34%) Tottenham (24%)
Liverpool (50%) Tottenham (50%)
						Arsenal (22%) Bayern (16%) Man City (11%) Inter (9%) Barcelona (9%)
Inter (87%)
		Inter (44%) Man City (34%) Sporting (20%)
Man City (50%) Sporting (50%)
				Arsenal (29%) Bayern (23%) Inter (17%) Man City (17%)
Leverkusen (78%) Olympiakos (22%)
		Arsenal (41%) Bayern (38%) Leverkusen (19%)
Bayern (50%) Arsenal (50%)

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Lyon	21	18-5	100%	59%	30%	16%	6%
2	21	Aston Villa	21	14-6	100%	83%	64%	50%	35%
3	19	Midtjylland	19	18-8	100%	56%	26%	8%	2.8%
4	17	Betis	17	13-7	100%	68%	40%	17%	8%
5	17	Porto	17	13-7	100%	74%	44%	20%	9%
6	17	Braga	17	11-5	100%	62%	28%	9%	3.0%
7	17	Freiburg	17	10-4	100%	64%	24%	12%	4.8%
8	16	Roma	16	13-6	100%	75%	37%	24%	12%
9	16	Genk	16	11-7	59%	13%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
10	15	Bologna	15	14-7	83%	39%	15%	8%	3.5%
11	15	Stuttgart	15	15-9	79%	41%	21%	8%	3.5%
12	15	Ferencvaros	15	12-11	64%	13%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
13	14	Forest	14	15-7	61%	34%	19%	8%	3.8%
14	14	Viktoria Plzen	14	8-3	56%	14%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%
15	14	Crvena Zvezda	14	7-6	22%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	13	Dinamo Zagreb	13	15-13	41%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	12	PAOK	12	17-14	35%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	12	Lille	12	12-9	78%	30%	15%	8%	3.7%
19	12	Fenerbahce	12	10-7	39%	18%	8%	2.8%	1.1%
20	12	Panathinaikos	12	11-9	44%	10%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
21	11	Celtic	11	13-15	21%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Celta	10	12-14	65%	19%	8%	4.0%	1.4%
23	10	Razgrad	10	12-15	36%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Brann	9	9-11	17%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Ferencvaros (64%) Razgrad (36%)
		Porto (43%) Braga (38%) Ferencvaros (13%)
Braga (50%) Porto (50%)
				Porto (27%) Betis (25%) Braga (19%) Midtjylland (17%)
Viktoria Plzen (56%) Panathinaikos (44%)
		Betis (41%) Midtjylland (35%) Viktoria Plzen (14%)
Midtjylland (50%) Betis (50%)
						Aston Villa (27%) Roma (14%) Porto (12%) Betis (11%)
Genk (59%) Dinamo Zagreb (41%)
		Roma (43%) Freiburg (38%) Genk (13%)
Roma (50%) Freiburg (50%)
				Aston Villa (34%) Roma (21%) Lyon (17%) Freiburg (14%)
Celta (65%) PAOK (35%)
		Aston Villa (43%) Lyon (32%) Celta (19%)
Lyon (50%) Aston Villa (50%)
								Aston Villa (35%) Roma (12%) Porto (9%) Betis (8%)
Stuttgart (79%) Celtic (21%)
		Stuttgart (41%) Porto (31%) Braga (23%)
Porto (50%) Braga (50%)
				Stuttgart (21%) Forest (19%) Porto (17%) Betis (15%) Braga (9%)
Forest (61%) Fenerbahce (39%)
		Forest (34%) Betis (27%) Midtjylland (20%) Fenerbahce (18%)
Betis (50%) Midtjylland (50%)
						Aston Villa (23%) Roma (10%) Lille (8%) Forest (8%)
Bologna (83%) Brann (17%)
		Bologna (39%) Roma (33%) Freiburg (26%)
Freiburg (50%) Roma (50%)
				Aston Villa (30%) Roma (16%) Lille (15%) Bologna (15%)
Lille (78%) Crvena Zvezda (22%)
		Aston Villa (40%) Lille (30%) Lyon (27%)
Aston Villa (50%) Lyon (50%)

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Strasbourg	16	11-5	100%	75%	44%	31%	17%
2	14	Rakow	14	9-2	100%	54%	21%	10%	3.3%
3	13	AEK	13	14-7	100%	71%	41%	17%	7%
4	13	Sparta Praha	13	10-3	100%	67%	36%	13%	4.8%
5	13	Rayo Vallecano	13	13-7	100%	79%	48%	21%	10%
6	13	Shakhtar	13	10-5	100%	67%	31%	10%	3.3%
7	13	Mainz	13	7-3	100%	56%	32%	20%	9%
8	12	Larnaca	12	7-1	100%	39%	14%	5%	1.5%
9	11	Lausanne	11	6-3	60%	16%	4.1%	1.2%	< 1%
10	10	Crystal Palace	10	11-6	98.1%	80%	60%	50%	36%
11	10	Lech	10	12-8	80%	29%	11%	1.9%	< 1%
12	10	Samsunspor	10	10-6	80%	22%	7%	1.8%	< 1%
13	10	Celje	10	8-7	79%	20%	7%	1.7%	< 1%
14	10	Alkmaar	10	7-7	86%	38%	19%	4.5%	2.0%
15	9	Fiorentina	9	8-5	73%	38%	12%	8%	4.0%
16	9	Rijeka	9	5-2	37%	7%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Jagiellonia	9	5-4	27%	9%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
18	8	Omonia	8	5-4	63%	18%	7%	2.8%	< 1%
19	8	Noah	8	6-7	14%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	8	Drita	8	4-8	21%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	7	Kuopio	7	6-5	20%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Shkendija	7	4-5	20%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Zrinjski Mostar	7	8-10	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Sigma Olomouc	7	7-9	40%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Lech (80%) Kuopio (20%)
		Rayo Vallecano (38%) Shakhtar (31%) Lech (29%)
Shakhtar (50%) Rayo Vallecano (50%)
				Rayo Vallecano (22%) Alkmaar (19%) AEK (18%) Sparta Praha (15%) Shakhtar (14%)
Alkmaar (86%)
		Alkmaar (38%) AEK (31%) Sparta Praha (29%)
AEK (50%) Sparta Praha (50%)
						Crystal Palace (50%) Strasbourg (9%) Fiorentina (8%)
Crystal Palace (98%)
		Crystal Palace (80%) Mainz (14%)
Mainz (50%) Larnaca (50%)
				Crystal Palace (60%) Strasbourg (13%) Fiorentina (12%)
Fiorentina (73%) Jagiellonia (27%)
		Fiorentina (38%) Strasbourg (33%) Rakow (21%)
Strasbourg (50%) Rakow (50%)
								Crystal Palace (36%) Strasbourg (17%) Rayo Vallecano (10%) Mainz (9%)
Samsunspor (80%) Shkendija (20%)
		Rayo Vallecano (41%) Shakhtar (36%) Samsunspor (22%)
Rayo Vallecano (50%) Shakhtar (50%)
				Rayo Vallecano (25%) AEK (23%) Sparta Praha (20%) Shakhtar (17%)
Celje (79%) Drita (21%)
		AEK (40%) Sparta Praha (38%) Celje (20%)
Sparta Praha (50%) AEK (50%)
						Strasbourg (22%) Mainz (16%) Rayo Vallecano (14%) AEK (12%) Sparta Praha (9%)
Lausanne (60%) Sigma Olomouc (40%)
		Mainz (42%) Larnaca (33%) Lausanne (16%)
Larnaca (50%) Mainz (50%)
				Strasbourg (31%) Mainz (25%) Rakow (17%) Larnaca (12%)
Omonia (63%) Rijeka (37%)
		Strasbourg (42%) Rakow (33%) Omonia (18%)
Rakow (50%) Strasbourg (50%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.37%	20.2	14.11	25.5
GER	29%	15.28	10	22.07
ITA	25%	15.13	9.86	23.79
POR	21%	14.95	11.3	23.1
POL	19%	14.96	12	22.25
ESP	6%	13.66	8.75	20.06
GRE	< 1%	12.04	9.2	19.7
CYP	< 1%	11.43	9.63	16.63
FRA	< 1%	11.68	8.69	16.19
TUR	< 1%	8.74	6.2	16.4
CZE	< 1%	9.75	7.3	15.8

Number of semifinalists from GER; 218 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	41%	31%	10%	1.3%
Chance if	2.2%	14%	43%	78%	97%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 207 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.2%	21%	39%	28%	9%	1.3%
Chance if	< 1%	1.9%	13%	41%	74%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 203 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	3.9%	27%	46%	23%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	1.0%	17%	57%	91%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 184 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	9%	32%	39%	18%	2.0%
Chance if	< 1%	9%	32%	64%	87%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 178 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	34%	48%	16%	1.5%
Chance if	3.2%	19%	60%	95%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	28%	53%	18%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	15%	54%	91%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 163 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	33%	45%	18%	3.2%
Chance if	6%	22%	56%	88%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 152 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	2.1%	13%	33%	38%	14%
Chance if	< 1%	1.7%	11%	33%	63%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 146 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	69%	29%	2.6%
Chance if	7%	40%	88%

Number of finalists from GER; 135 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	41%	43%	14%	1.9%
Chance if	11%	31%	63%	91%