EL: Aston Villa big favorites

 

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Lyon	21	18-5	100%	62%	31%	16%	6%
2	21	Aston Villa	21	14-6	100%	85%	64%	51%	36%
3	19	Midtjylland	19	18-8	100%	50%	22%	7%	2.5%
4	17	Betis	17	13-7	100%	63%	36%	16%	7%
5	17	Porto	17	13-7	100%	67%	40%	18%	9%
6	17	Braga	17	11-5	100%	53%	23%	7%	2.6%
7	17	Freiburg	17	10-4	100%	63%	24%	12%	4.7%
8	16	Roma	16	13-6	100%	74%	37%	23%	12%
9	16	Genk	16	11-7	63%	14%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
10	15	Bologna	15	14-7	85%	41%	17%	9%	4.0%
11	15	Stuttgart	15	15-9	67%	36%	20%	8%	3.5%
12	15	Ferencvaros	15	12-11	35%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
13	14	Forest	14	15-7	71%	41%	24%	10%	4.8%
14	14	Viktoria Plzen	14	8-3	41%	11%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
15	14	Crvena Zvezda	14	7-6	31%	5.0%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
16	13	Dinamo Zagreb	13	15-13	26%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	12	PAOK	12	17-14	61%	12%	3.6%	1.1%	< 1%
18	12	Lille	12	12-9	82%	33%	17%	10%	4.2%
19	12	Fenerbahce	12	10-7	56%	27%	13%	4.6%	1.8%
20	12	Panathinaikos	12	11-9	32%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
21	11	Celtic	11	13-15	39%	10%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
22	10	Celta	10	12-14	59%	27%	12%	4.1%	1.5%
23	10	Razgrad	10	12-15	21%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	9	Brann	9	9-11	30%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.32%	20.23	13.83	25.78
ITA	29%	15.25	9.71	23.43
POL	26%	15.31	12	22.25
GER	21%	14.94	10	21.5
POR	18%	14.71	11.3	22.7
ESP	6%	13.72	8.88	20.19
GRE	< 1%	12.25	9.2	20
FRA	< 1%	11.89	7.94	17.75
CYP	< 1%	11.14	9.63	16.88
TUR	< 1%	8.94	6.2	16.7
CZE	< 1%	9.33	7.3	16

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 236 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.2%	20%	39%	29%	10%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	2.1%	16%	46%	79%	95%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 202 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	18%	41%	30%	9%	1.2%
Chance if	< 1%	7%	31%	70%	95%

Number of quarterfinalists from POL; 192 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	24%	54%	21%	< 1%
Chance if	1.0%	22%	62%	92%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 190 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	30%	45%	21%	4.3%
Chance if	6%	24%	59%	89%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 190 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	7%	32%	42%	18%
Chance if	< 1%	1.3%	18%	56%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 176 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	67%	30%	3.1%
Chance if	11%	52%	94%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from ITA; 169 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	2.3%	13%	32%	37%	16%
Chance if	< 1%	2.1%	13%	37%	66%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	< 1%	11%	34%	38%	15%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	4.9%	23%	56%	82%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 168 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	40%	45%	14%	1.3%
Chance if	2.6%	18%	57%	93%

Number of finalists from GER; 126 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	43%	42%	14%	1.6%
Chance if	6%	21%	53%	87%