PL: Goalless draw in London derby

West Ham traveled to Selhurst Park in south London and missed the chance to create a gap down to Spurs. It's gonna be a tight race. The team that finishes 4th from the bottom takes more than 40 points in less than 25% of simulations and similarly they take less than 37 points in less than 25% of simulations, so somewhere around 37-40 points will be needed to win the new contract.

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Tottenham (11.4%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Tottenham	26%	36%	59%
West Ham	76%	68%	49%
Forest	97.7%	96.4%	93%
West Ham vs Everton (10.5%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (36%)
West Ham	81%	61%	50%
Tottenham	26%	43%	52%
Forest	94%	96.5%	97.6%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	13%	7%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.4%	1.6%	99.99%	21%	8%	100%
44	< 1%	< 1%	99.9%	3.5%	1.1%	99.9%	29%	8%	>99.99%
43	2.7%	1.8%	99.6%	9%	5%	99.3%	45%	16%	99.94%
42	3.8%	1.2%	98%	16%	7%	98.2%	58%	13%	99.8%
41	9%	6%	92%	22%	6%	94%	68%	10%	98.7%
40	17%	7%	86%	36%	14%	87%	82%	14%	96.5%
39	23%	6%	71%	50%	14%	79%	90%	8%	91%
38	38%	15%	55%	60%	11%	64%	95%	4.3%	81%
37	52%	14%	42%	76%	16%	49%	98.6%	3.9%	69%
36	63%	11%	25%	87%	11%	37%	100%	1.4%	51%
35	78%	15%	13%	92%	5%	22%	100%	< 1%	-
34	88%	10%	8%	97.9%	6%	12%	100%	< 1%	-
33	93%	5%	2.2%	100%	2.1%	7%	100%	< 1%	-
32	98.1%	5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points