PL: Title race is on.

 City won the league final at Etihad and the title race is now very tight. Advantage City with form and momentum, but advantage Arsenal with slightly easier schedule with only five matches left. Tough match already on Saturday though when the Magpies visit the Emirates. The two title runners are favorites in all their remaining matches, but we note that they win the remaining 11 matches only in 1 of 300 simulations, so there will most likely be more slips. The question is from whom.

The CL race is almost done with Arsenal, City, United, Villa, and Pool playing CL next season in 87% of the simulations. In 17% of the simulations they are joined by Forest.

In the relegation race, Tottenham almost got a win against Brighton. Next weekend, they travel to Wolves for a crucial chance for some much needed points. If they win they have 60% chance to avoid relegation, 38% with a draw, and 28% with a loss. At the same time, West Ham host Everton in an almost equally important battle.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
70	Arsenal	81.2	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	79%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
67	Man City	78.0	+40	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Man United	66.0	+15	< 1%	99.97%	99.77%	98.4%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%	98.4%
58	Aston Villa	65.7	+7	< 1%	99.98%	99.78%	98.2%	74%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.07%
55	Liverpool	63.2	+13	< 1%	99.15%	97.3%	90%	44%	< 1%	< 1%	8%	90%
48	Chelsea	55.5	+12	< 1%	50%	30%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	55%	4.9%
48	Bournemouth	55.4	+1	< 1%	40%	21%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	32%	2.3%
47	Brighton	54.9	+8	< 1%	41%	22%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	32%	2.6%
48	Brentford	54.2	+4	< 1%	27%	12%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	21%	1.8%
47	Everton	54.2	+1	< 1%	26%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	20%	< 1%
46	Sunderland	51.8	-6	< 1%	7%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	5%	< 1%
45	Fulham	51.4	-4	< 1%	5%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	4.1%	< 1%
42	Crystal Palace	49.8	-5	< 1%	3.9%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	54%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	48.5	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Leeds	45.7	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	< 1%
36	Forest	42.1	-10	4.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%
32	West Ham	38.4	-20	37%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	Tottenham	36.7	-13	59%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	24.5	-38	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	23.3	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Burnley vs Man City (6.6%)	Home Win (20%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (59%)
Arsenal	91%	86%	72%
Man City	9%	14%	28%
Arsenal vs Newcastle (6.6%)	Home Win (72%)	Draw (16%)	Away Win (12%)
Arsenal	84%	69%	59%
Man City	16%	31%	41%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	15%	15%	99.0%	2.1%	2.1%	92%
84	15%	< 1%	-	2.1%	< 1%	-
83	34%	19%	95.2%	8%	6%	75%
82	51%	17%	89%	14%	7%	57%
81	60%	10%	83%	20%	6%	45%
80	77%	16%	73%	34%	14%	32%
79	86%	9%	61%	45%	11%	19%
78	91%	6%	50%	56%	11%	12%
77	96.2%	4.8%	37%	69%	13%	6%
76	98.2%	2.0%	25%	78%	9%	2.9%
75	99.22%	1.0%	17%	86%	8%	1.4%
74	99.76%	< 1%	10%	92%	6%	< 1%
73	99.93%	< 1%	5%	95.7%	3.5%	< 1%
72	99.98%	< 1%	3%	97.8%	2.2%	< 1%
71	>99.99%	< 1%	2%	99.17%	1.3%	< 1%
70	100%	< 1%	-	99.68%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace (5.8%)	Home Win (61%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (19%)
Liverpool	95.4%	86%	79%
Chelsea	3.1%	7%	9%
Brighton	1.7%	3.4%	4.9%
Bournemouth	1.5%	3.0%	4.3%
Brentford	1.1%	2.3%	3.3%
Brighton vs Chelsea (4.4%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Chelsea	1.7%	3.9%	11%
Brighton	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	91%	92%	88%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brighton vs Chelsea (15.6%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (28%)
Brighton	52%	26%	14%
Chelsea	48%	61%	80%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Tottenham (10.6%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Tottenham	28%	38%	60%
West Ham	74%	66%	48%
Forest	97.8%	96.6%	93%
West Ham vs Everton (9.7%)	Home Win (40%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (36%)
West Ham	78%	60%	49%
Tottenham	28%	44%	53%
Crystal Palace vs West Ham (7.1%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
West Ham	55%	65%	82%
Tottenham	48%	39%	25%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	6%	1.7%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	13%	7%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.9%	1.9%	100%	21%	8%	100%
44	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%	6%	2.7%	99.9%	29%	8%	>99.99%
43	2.6%	1.7%	99.3%	9%	3.1%	99.2%	45%	16%	99.92%
42	3.8%	1.2%	97%	16%	8%	98.2%	58%	13%	99.7%
41	9%	6%	91%	25%	8%	94%	68%	11%	98.6%
40	17%	7%	84%	34%	9%	87%	82%	14%	96.2%
39	23%	7%	73%	48%	15%	79%	90%	8%	92%
38	38%	15%	56%	61%	12%	64%	95%	4.4%	82%
37	52%	14%	42%	71%	11%	49%	98.6%	3.9%	69%
36	63%	11%	30%	84%	12%	38%	100%	1.4%	55%
35	78%	15%	16%	91%	8%	22%	100%	< 1%	-
34	88%	10%	9%	95.3%	4.2%	12%	100%	< 1%	-
33	93%	5%	4.6%	98.8%	3.5%	7%	100%	< 1%	-
32	98.1%	5%	1.2%	100%	1.2%	2%	100%	< 1%	-
31	100%	1.9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points