Group C

Favourites Colombia won against Greece climbing up from 71% to 92%. In the key match between Ivory Coast and Japan, Ivory Coast came from behind and won 2-1. It gives Ivory Coast 68% to qualify and Japan are struggling with 16% (compared with 37% prior game).

Group D

Group D is wide open after Costa Rica upsetting Uruguay and Italy winning the rumble in the jungle against England. Italy is now the favourite in the group with 81% to go through. Costa Rica increased their chances from 20% to 53% while Uruguay fell from 60% to 23%. Uruguay and England up next where both are forced to win or they need to rely on results in other matches.

 

Group B

The possibly toughest group has started - and what a start. The big re-match between last cup's finalists ended with world champions floored, but remember that this is the first round, and not the knock-out round. They still have a 48% to survive the group compared with the 84% they entered the tournament with. A win against Chile in next game is more or less a necessity. The Dutch improved their chances from 62% to 93%. Likewise, Chile jumped up from 44% to 57% after their win against Australia. An interesting scenario is that Australia fly home pointless and that three contenders beat each other and finish on 6 points, in which case goal difference decide. And then having a 5-1 win in your trunk is not a disadvantage.       

The figure below shows the estimated chances for the team in Group A to survive the group stage. The estimations are based on 1,000,000 monte carlo simulations (see below for model) given the standing at each minute. As the results in Group A were quite expected, the favourites won, not very much changed. Brazil reached above 95.5% and it seems the key game will be between Croatia and Mexico in last round.

Model

The games are simulated using a simplistic model. The probability of scoring only depends on which teams are playing. As estimate of teams' strength we use Elo ratings, which can be translated to a probability of of winning against a given opponent. Only correction is that Brazil is given 82 bonus Elo points to reflect their home ground advantage. Having the winning probability, we select scoring rates (goals per hour) that yield this probability with the condition that the geometric mean of the two rates equals unity. That mean a typical game will have three goals or slightly more if the sides are uneven. This boils down to modeling the match as two Poisson processes.    

World Cup After Finals Draw

My apologies. I did not predict that FIFA would change the rules and not put France in a special pot as Serbia and Montenegro was 2006. I did not take into account that someone would France would be that influential.

For which countries was the draw good or bad? By simulating the World Cup first simulating the draw as well, and then using the actual draw, we can infer if the draw did change the chances for any countries.

The draw was good for:

Country	Pre	Post	Ratio
South Korea	19.0	32.5	1.7
Algeria	9.7	14.4	1.5
Russia	51.9	74.1	1.4
Mexico	10.6	41.1	1.3

and the draw was not as good for

Country	Pre	Post	Ratio
Australia	24.0	8.31	0.34
Ghana	26.8	15.6	0.58
Chile	55.9	34.5	0.62
Costa Rica	27.3	17.3	0.63

We can then look at each group. If we sum up the teams' chances to pass on to the knock-out stage, it's obviously 200% for the Post probabilities. If we instead calculate the sum of the pre-probabilities, it gives us an idea of how difficult the group is. If, for example, four teams that had 99% probability to survive group stage before the draw are drawn together in one group, the sum will be 396%, well above the 200% you'd expect on an average draw.

Doing this we'll see that the toughest group is Group B with a sum of 254%. Group B contains both finalists from last World Cup, Spain and Netherlands, plus Chile a strong contender from South America. The next toughest group is then Group D with sum 241%, which contains England, Uruguay, Italy, Costa Rica.



Group A

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Brazil	96.8	2.4	21.8	-1.8
Croatia	51.9	6.6	0.34	-0.02
Mexico	41.1	10.6	0.17	0.03
Cameroon	10.2	0.2	0.0020	-0.0010

Pre-probability Sum: 180%

Group B

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Spain	87.8	-5.9	22.4	-0.7
Netherlands	69.4	-11.4	6.67	-1.03
Chile	34.5	-21.4	0.98	-0.51
Australia	8.31	-15.69	0.024	-0.036

Pre-probability Sum: 254%


Group C

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Colombia	72.6	-0.8	1.98	-0.33
Greece	49.4	0.3	0.43	-0.07
Ivory Coast	48.5	7.6	0.41	0.01
Japan	29.6	2.3	0.085	-0.015

Pre-probability Sum: 191%

Group D

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
England	68.3	-5.0	3.77	-0.28
Uruguay	58.3	-16.3	2.09	-0.52
Italy	56.1	-9.5	1.83	-0.31
Costa Rica	17.3	-10.0	0.066	-0.034

Pre-probability Sum: 241%

Group E

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
France	66.5	6.7	1.61	0.29
Switzerland	60.1	-0.9	1.07	0.12
Ecuador	54.7	9.7	0.77	0.20
Honduras	18.6	-0.1	0.027	0.007

Pre-probability Sum: 185%

Group F

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Argentina	91.6	5.0	10.1	1.7
B&H	47.8	5.8	0.34	0.09
Nigeria	32.3	6.9	0.10	0.03
Iran	28.4	6.2	0.066	0.026

 Pre-probability Sum: 176%

Group G

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Germany	88.1	-2.6	17.4	2.2
Portugal	50.1	-12.0	1.66	0.08
United States	46.2	-4.8	1.36	0.23
Ghana	15.6	-11.2	0.076	-0.004

Pre-probability Sum: 231%

Group H

	2nd Rnd	Change	Champ	Change
Belgium	78.9	16.7	1.36	0.32
Russia	74.1	22.2	0.94	0.27
South Korea	32.5	13.5	0.043	0.019
Algeria	14.4	4.7	0.0047	0.0017

Pre-probability Sum: 143%

Champions League After Match Day 5

If two (or more) teams end up with equally many points the following tie-breakers apply:

1. More points in matches involving the tied teams
2. Higher goal difference in matches involving the tied teams
3. More scored goals in matches involving the tied teams
4. More goals scored on the road in matches involving the tied teams
5. If more than 2 teams were tied and two teams are still tied after applying 1-4, re-apply 1-4 on the two tied teams
6. Higher goal difference in all group matches
7. More scored goals in all group matches
8. More goals scored on the road in all group matches

Group A
11 Man United
8 Shakhtar
7 Leverkusen
1 Sociedad

Man United - Shakhtar
Sociedad - Leverkusen

• Man United has clinched qualification
• Shakhtar clinch qualification if they take equally many points against Man United as Leverkusen take against Sociedad.
• Leverkusen clinch qualification if they take more points against Sociedad than Shakhtar take against Man United.
• Sociedad cannot qualify

If Shakhtar and Leverkusen end up on equally many points, Leverkusen will qualify as they won at home against Shakhtar with 4-0 and drew 0-0 away.

Group B
13 Real Madrid
6 Juventus
4 Galatasaray
4 Copenhagen

Galatasaray - Juventus
Copenhagen - Real Madrid

• Real Madrid has clinched qualification
• Juventus clinch qualification if they draw (or win) against Galatasaray
• Galatasaray clinch qualification if they win against Juventus
• Copenhagen cannot qualify

Group C
13 Paris
7 Olympiakos
7 Benfica
1 Anderlecht

Benfica - Paris
Olympiakos - Anderlecht

• Paris has clinched qualification
• Olympiakos clinch qualification if they take at least equally many points against Anderlecht as Benfica take against Paris.
• Benfica clinch qualification if they take more points against Paris than Olympiakos take against Anderlecht.
• Anderlecht cannot qualify

Olympiakos won 1-0 at home against Benfica and drew 0-0 away and will therefore qualify if Olympiakos and Benfica end up with equally many points. 

Group D
15 Munich
12 Man City
3 Moscow
0 Plzen

Munich - Man City
Plzen - Moscow

• Munich has clinched qualification
• Man City has clinched qualification
• Moscow cannot qualify
• Plzen cannot qualify

Group E
9 Chelsea
8 Basel
7 Schalke
3 Bucharest

Chelsea - Bucharest
Schalke - Basel

• Chelsea has clinched qualification
• Basel clinch qualification if they draw (or win) against Schalke
• Schalke clinch qualification if they win against Basel
• Bucharest cannot qualify

Group F
12 Arsenal
9 Dortmund
9 Napoli
0 Marseille

Marseille - Dortmund
Napoli - Arsenal

• Arsenal clinch qualification if they do not lose with 3 (or more) goals against Napoli
• Arsenal clinch qualification if Dortmund fail to win against Marseille
• Dortmund clinch qualification if Arsenal win against Napoli
• Dortmund clinch qualification if they win against Marseille
• Dortmund clinch qualification if they draw against Marseille and Napoli and Arsenal draw
• Napoli clinch qualification if they win against Arsenal with at least 3 goals
• Napoli clinch qualification if they win against Arsenal and Dortmund fail to win against Marseille
• Napoli clinch qualification if they draw against Arsenal and Marseille win against Dortmund
• Marseille cannot qualify

If Dortmund and Napoli win their matches they will end up on 12 points just like Arsenal. The table excluding the Marseille matches then looks like


1. Arsenal      6  4-2
2. Dortmund  6  6-5
3. Napoli        6  3-6
 
where we can see that Napoli need to win with three goals against Arsenal to get a goal difference better than Arsenal.

Group G
13 Atletico Madrid
6 Zenit
5 Porto
2 Austria

Atletico Madrid - Porto
Austria - Zenit

• Atletico Madrid has clinched qualification
• Zenit clinch qualification if Porto fail to win against Atletico Madrid
• Zenit clinch qualification if they win against Austria
• Porto clinch qualification if they win against Atletico Madrid and Zenit fail to win against Austria
• Austria cannot qualify

Group H
10 Barcelona
8 Milan
7 Ajax
3 Celtic

Milan - Ajax
Barcelona - Celtic

• Barcelona has clinched qualification
• Milan clinch qualification if they draw (or win) against Ajax
• Ajax clinch qualification if they win against Milan
• Celtic cannot qualify

Congratulations Algeria, Croatia, France, Ghana, Greece, Mexico, Portugal,  and Uruguay.

Going back to the predictions of the qualification back in July 2012, we can conclude that the greatest [positive] surprises were:

1. Algeria (15%)
2. Cameroon (23%)
3. Belgium (39%)
4. Costa Rica (39%)
5. Bosnia and Herzegovina (3242%)

where the percentage indicates the chance the team was estimated to have back in July 2012. Likewise the greatest disappointments were:

1. Egypt (63%)
2. Sweden (61%)
3. Panama (49%)
4. Tunisia (44%)
5. Uzbekistan (39%)

We have 32 countries, which will be drawn into eight groups on 6th of December. The countries will most likely be divided into five pots as:

• Pot A (seeded): Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, and Uruguay
• Pot B (North America & Asia): Australia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and United States 
• Pot C (Europe): Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, England, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Russia
• Pot D (South America & Africa): Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Ecuador, Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Nigeria.
• Special Pot: France

France (special pot) will be drawn together with a non-European team from Pot 1, a team from Pot 2, and a team from Pot 3. This is to ensure that there is no group with three Europeans teams. Then each South American team in Pot D is drawn with a European team from Pot A, a team from Pot B, and a team from Pot C. Then the remaining five groups are drawn by picking one team from each of the four pots.

Country	Qual	2013-Oct	2012-Jul	Champ	2013-Oct	2012-Jul
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	33.9	-0.4	+17.1
Spain	100	+0.0	+0.4	20.5	-0.1	-13.7
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.5	7.5	-0.2	-1.4
Germany	100	+0.0	+2.9	13.7	+0.1	-0.6
England	100	+0.0	+3.8	3.43	+0.0	-1.9
South Korea	100	+0.0	+5.2	0.01	-0.0	-0.3
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+5.7	6.6	-0.1	+1.5
Japan	100	+0.0	+6.9	0.037	-0.0	-0.3
Colombia	100	+0.0	+11.3	2.17	-0.1	+0.7
Australia	100	+0.0	+15.2	0.024	-0.0	-0.1
Italy	100	+0.0	+16.0	1.82	-0.3	+0.1
Ecuador	100	+0.0	+18.4	0.33	+0.0	-0.3
United States	100	+0.0	+18.9	0.58	-0.1	+0.5
Russia	100	+0.0	+19.2	0.55	-0.0	-0.6
Switzerland	100	+0.0	+21.1	0.92	+0.4	+0.7
Iran	100	+0.0	+29.3	0.017	-0.0	+0.0
Chile	100	+0.0	+36.9	0.9	+0.0	+0.7
Honduras	100	+0.0	+53.3	0.008	-0.0	+0.0
Bosnia and Herzegov	100	+0.0	+57.8	0.23	+0.0	+0.2
Costa Rica	100	+0.0	+61.2	0.035	-0.0	+0.0
Belgium	100	+0.0	+61.5	1.02	-0.0	+0.9
Ghana	100	+0.1	+55.2	0.04	-0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	100	+2.5	+42.2	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Ivory Coast	100	+3.3	+18.2	0.25	+0.0	-0.4
Uruguay	100	+9.3	+16.2	2.41	+0.2	+1.9
Croatia	100	+14.4	+18.3	0.31	+0.0	-0.6
Mexico	100	+27.3	+1.4	0.06	+0.0	-2.5
Cameroon	100	+28.0	+77.4	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Greece	100	+32.9	+24.1	0.44	+0.2	+0.2
France	100	+39.5	+40.5	0.76	+0.1	+0.3
Portugal	100	+44.3	+11.6	1.35	+0.6	-1.3
Algeria	100	+70.6	+85.3	0.001	+0.0	+0.0