PL: City champions 17/18

As United lost against West Bromwich, they can no longer catch City, and City have secured the league title.

Chelsea can still reach top-4 but will need 15 points in last five games together with a collapse from Liverpool or Tottenham. Liverpool only need 6 more points in last four games to theoretically clinch top-4, while 5p will likely suffice. Tottenham need 9 more points in last five matches, while 8p will likely suffice.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	98.9	106-29	100	100
Man United	81.1	73-31	0	99.8
Liverpool	77.6	86-39	0	98.3
Tottenham	78	76-34	0	98.6
Chelsea	70.1	67-38	0	3.32
Arsenal	62.7	71-51	0	0.0005

Man United have clinched CL, if they take 5 (of 15) more points

Man United have more than 95% chance, if they take 4 (of 15) more points

Man United have more than 90% chance, if they take 3 (of 15) more points

Liverpool have clinched CL, if they take 6 (of 12) more points

Liverpool have more than 99% chance, if they take 5 (of 12) more points

Liverpool have more than 50% chance, if they take 2 (of 12) more points

Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 9 (of 15) more points

Tottenham have more than 95% chance, if they take 8 (of 15) more points

Tottenham have more than 90% chance, if they take 7 (of 15) more points

Tottenham have more than 50% chance, if they take 3 (of 15) more points

Chelsea have more than 10% chance, if they take 15 (of 15) more points

Chelsea have more than 1% chance, if they take 12 (of 15) more points

Chelsea have chance, if they take 8 (of 15) more points

Arsenal have chance, if they take 15 (of 15) more points

CL: Final Four

Below are the predictions for the last four teams. Real Madrid are favourites followed by Bayern.

Team	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	68%	34%
Bayern	54%	27%
Liverpool	40%	20%
Roma	38%	19%

CL: Miracle in Rome

Roma managed to turn around a three-goal deficit against favourites Barcelona. That makes Real Madrid (34%) and Bayern (25%) favourites to win the tournament.

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	98%	68%	34%
Bayern	91%	49%	25%
Liverpool	100%	41%	20%
Roma	100%	38%	19%
Sevilla	9%	3%	1%
Juventus	2%	1%	<1%

PL: Man U postponed City's title party

City missed the opportunity to celebrate the league title when local rivalries, Man United, were invited for the party. Chelsea's chance for CL ticket seems more and more theoretical. Man United only need two more wins to secure their top-4. Liverpool and Tottenham only need 3 more wins to be sure to clinch top-4.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	97.2	105-29	100	100
Man United	83.6	76-31	0.008	100
Liverpool	76.9	85-40	0	97.8
Tottenham	79.5	77-33	0	99.6
Chelsea	68.9	66-37	0	2.6
Arsenal	64.5	72-50	0	0.0326

Man United have clinched CL, if they take 6 (of 18) more points

Man United have more than 99.9% chance, if they take 5 (of 18) more points

Man United have more than 95% chance, if they take 3 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have clinched CL, if they take 9 (of 15) more points

Liverpool have more than 99% chance, if they take 8 (of 15) more points

Liverpool have more than 90% chance, if they take 6 (of 15) more points

Liverpool have more than 50% chance, if they take 3 (of 15) more points

Liverpool have more than 10% chance, if they take 1 (of 15) more points

Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 9 (of 18) more points

Tottenham have more than 99% chance, if they take 8 (of 18) more points

Tottenham have more than 95% chance, if they take 7 (of 18) more points

Tottenham have more than 90% chance, if they take 6 (of 18) more points

Tottenham have more than 50% chance, if they take 3 (of 18) more points

Chelsea have more than 10% chance, if they take 18 (of 18) more points

Chelsea have more than 5% chance, if they take 16 (of 18) more points

Chelsea have more than 1% chance, if they take 14 (of 18) more points

Chelsea have chance, if they take 11 (of 18) more points

Arsenal have more than 1% chance, if they take 18 (of 18) more points

Arsenal have chance, if they take 15 (of 18) more points

CL: Quarter-finals - leg 1

All four quarter-finals are more less decided after first leg. Our model predicts Man City have the best chance to come back, giving them 11%.

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	98%	60%	30%
Barcelona	96%	59%	29%
Bayern	91%	42%	21%
Liverpool	89%	30%	15%
Man City	11%	5%	3%
Sevilla	9%	2%	1%
Roma	4%	1%	<1%
Juventus	2%	<1%	<1%

CL: Quarter-finals - match day 1

Juventus lost 0-3 at home against Real Madrid, virtually knocking them out, reducing their chance from 37% to 2% reaching semi-finals.

Sevilla lost 1-2 against Bayern reducing their chance from 26% to 9%.

Team	Semi	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	98%	60%	30%
Barcelona	74%	44%	22%
Bayern	91%	41%	21%
Man City	64%	31%	15%
Liverpool	36%	13%	6%
Roma	26%	9%	5%
Sevilla	9%	2%	1%
Juventus	2%	<1%	<1%

PL: Tottenham won against Chelsea

Tottenham won the important match against Chelsea. Chelsea still have a chance to finish top 4, but they will need almost a perfect finish of the season. The also need that one of the top 4 teams start losing matches. Man United almost certainly finish top 4, if they take 8p in remaining 7 matches. Tottenham almost certainly finish top 4, if they take 11p in remaining 7 matches. Liverpool almost certainly finish top 4, if they take 9p in remaining 6 matches.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	99.1	105-28	100	100
Man United	81.5	74-31	0.0018	99.5
Liverpool	77.6	87-40	0	95.7
Tottenham	78.4	77-33	0	97.1
Chelsea	70.4	68-37	0	7.62
Arsenal	63.7	71-49	0	0.0409

Man United have clinched CL, if they take 10 (of 21) more points

Man United have more than 99% chance, if they take 9 (of 21) more points

Man United have more than 95% chance, if they take 8 (of 21) more points

Man United have more than 90% chance, if they take 7 (of 21) more points

Man United have more than 50% chance, if they take 3 (of 21) more points

Man United have more than 10% chance, if they take 1 (of 21) more points

Liverpool have clinched CL, if they take 12 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have more than 99.9% chance, if they take 11 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have more than 95% chance, if they take 9 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have more than 50% chance, if they take 5 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have more than 10% chance, if they take 2 (of 18) more points

Liverpool have more than 5% chance, if they take 1 (of 18) more points

Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 14 (of 21) more points

Tottenham have more than 99% chance, if they take 13 (of 21) more points

Tottenham have more than 95% chance, if they take 11 (of 21) more points

Tottenham have more than 50% chance, if they take 7 (of 21) more points

Tottenham have more than 10% chance, if they take 3 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have more than 50% chance, if they take 21 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have more than 10% chance, if they take 18 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have more than 5% chance, if they take 17 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have more than 1% chance, if they take 15 (of 21) more points

Chelsea have chance, if they take 11 (of 21) more points

Arsenal have more than 1% chance, if they take 21 (of 21) more points

Arsenal have chance, if they take 17 (of 21) more points