Euro 2020

We have simulated the tournament 1,000,000 times. The table below shows how often each country reach the different stages.

Country	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Belgium	94%	70%	50%	32%	20%
France	84%	58%	41%	25%	15%
Spain	98%	72%	40%	23%	12%
Italy	95%	64%	36%	19%	9%
Portugal	77%	48%	31%	17%	9%
England	97%	50%	26%	15%	9%
Denmark	94%	57%	32%	15%	6%
Netherlands	96%	60%	29%	13%	5%
Germany	82%	41%	24%	10%	4%
Switzerland	67%	30%	13%	4%	1%
Sweden	71%	33%	11%	3%	1%
Croatia	67%	27%	9%	3%	< 1%
Wales	57%	23%	8%	2%	< 1%
Ukraine	67%	25%	8%	2%	< 1%
Poland	64%	27%	8%	2%	< 1%
Turkey	48%	17%	6%	1%	< 1%
Czechia	52%	17%	4%	1%	< 1%
Austria	53%	16%	4%	1%	< 1%
Russia	49%	15%	4%	< 1%	< 1%
Hungary	29%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Scotland	47%	11%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Finland	24%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Romania	47%	9%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slovakia	28%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group A	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Italy	0	0	-	0	0	4%	9%	22%	65%	95%	64%	36%	19%	9%
Switzerland	0	0	-	0	0	24%	29%	31%	16%	67%	31%	13%	5%	2%
Wales	0	0	-	0	0	32%	31%	26%	11%	58%	24%	9%	3%	< 1%
Turkey	0	0	-	0	0	40%	30%	21%	8%	49%	18%	6%	2%	< 1%

Statistically, the most important matches are Switzerland's matches against Turkey and Wales.

Group B	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Belgium	0	0	-	0	0	3%	12%	36%	49%	95%	70%	50%	32%	20%
Denmark	0	0	-	0	0	4%	12%	40%	44%	94%	57%	33%	16%	7%
Russia	0	0	-	0	0	32%	47%	16%	5%	50%	15%	4%	< 1%	< 1%
Finland	0	0	-	0	0	61%	29%	8%	2%	25%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%

The most important matches are Belgium's matches against Finland and Russia.

Group C	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Netherlands	0	0	-	0	0	2%	7%	20%	71%	97%	60%	29%	13%	6%
Ukraine	0	0	-	0	0	23%	29%	34%	14%	68%	26%	8%	3%	< 1%
Austria	0	0	-	0	0	35%	32%	24%	9%	53%	16%	4%	1%	< 1%
Romania	0	0	-	0	0	40%	32%	22%	6%	47%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%

Ukraine's matches against Romania and Austria are key in this group.
 

Group D	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
England	0	0	-	0	0	2%	6%	19%	72%	97%	51%	26%	15%	9%
Croatia	0	0	-	0	0	23%	29%	34%	14%	67%	28%	9%	3%	< 1%
Czechia	0	0	-	0	0	36%	32%	24%	8%	52%	17%	5%	1%	< 1%
Scotland	0	0	-	0	0	39%	32%	22%	6%	48%	12%	2%	< 1%	< 1%

Croatia is key in this group with their matches against Scotland and Czechia.

Group E	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Spain	0	0	-	0	0	1%	5%	18%	76%	98%	72%	41%	23%	12%
Sweden	0	0	-	0	0	18%	32%	38%	12%	71%	33%	11%	4%	1%
Poland	0	0	-	0	0	23%	36%	32%	9%	64%	27%	8%	3%	< 1%
Slovakia	0	0	-	0	0	58%	27%	12%	2%	29%	7%	1%	< 1%	< 1%

Key matches in this group are Slovakia's matches against Sweden and Poland.

Group F	MP	GD			Pts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
France	0	0	-	0	0	11%	22%	30%	38%	85%	59%	41%	26%	15%
Germany	0	0	-	0	0	12%	27%	31%	31%	82%	41%	25%	11%	4%
Portugal	0	0	-	0	0	16%	28%	29%	27%	78%	48%	31%	18%	9%
Hungary	0	0	-	0	0	61%	24%	10%	5%	30%	8%	3%	< 1%	< 1%

In 75% of the simulations three countries from group reached R16, which is the highest of all groups basically because Hungary has the toughest draw of all countries. Key matches in the group will be the ones involving Hungary.

 

The table below shows which countries are most likely to reach the different parts of the bracket. 

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Belgium (49%) Denmark (44%)
		Belgium (37%) Denmark (27%) Portugal (5%) France (5%)
Poland (12%) Sweden (11%) Portugal (10%) Germany (10%) France (8%)
				Belgium (25%) Italy (25%) Denmark (15%) Netherlands (6%)
Italy (65%) Switzerland (16%)
		Italy (48%) Ukraine (12%) Netherlands (10%)
Ukraine (34%) Austria (24%) Romania (22%) Netherlands (20%)
						France (18%) Belgium (17%) Italy (14%) Portugal (11%) Denmark (7%)
France (38%) Germany (31%) Portugal (27%)
		France (34%) Portugal (25%) Germany (22%) Hungary (3%)
Germany (11%) Portugal (11%) Poland (11%) Sweden (10%) Czechia (9%)
				France (25%) Portugal (17%) Germany (15%) Sweden (8%)
Croatia (34%) Czechia (24%) Scotland (22%) England (19%)
		Sweden (20%) Croatia (17%) Poland (16%) Spain (13%) England (13%)
Sweden (38%) Poland (32%) Spain (18%)
								Belgium (20%) France (15%) Spain (12%) Italy (9%) Portugal (9%)
Spain (76%) Sweden (12%)
		Spain (57%) Sweden (7%) Poland (5%)
Austria (11%) Ukraine (11%) Romania (11%) Russia (10%) Czechia (6%)
				Spain (32%) England (19%) France (13%) Portugal (11%)
England (72%) Croatia (14%)
		England (35%) France (20%) Portugal (18%) Germany (16%)
Germany (31%) France (30%) Portugal (29%)
						Spain (19%) Belgium (15%) England (12%) Netherlands (10%) France (8%)
Netherlands (71%) Ukraine (14%)
		Netherlands (49%) Ukraine (11%) Austria (7%)
Russia (18%) Finland (9%) Austria (9%) Ukraine (9%) Wales (9%)
				Belgium (23%) Netherlands (23%) Denmark (17%) Italy (10%) Switzerland (8%)
Switzerland (31%) Wales (26%) Italy (22%) Turkey (21%)
		Belgium (27%) Denmark (24%) Switzerland (13%) Italy (12%)
Denmark (40%) Belgium (36%) Russia (16%)

The table below shows probabilities for countries finishing third in groups. The 'Probability' column indicates the probability that a 'third team' finishes with the different point and goal difference. Column 'Last 16' probability that one of the four "third teams" finish with the different points and goal difference, and column 'Chance', the chance to qualify for R16 if they finish with the described point and goal difference. Currently, the border for finishing among the best four third teams goes somewhere at 3 points and goal difference 2-5.

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 16	Chance
4	-	30%	30%	99.04%
3	0	7%	6%	92%
3	4-5	2.5%	2.1%	85%
3	3-4	2.2%	1.8%	82%
3	4-6	2.6%	1.9%	73%
3	3-5	2.7%	1.8%	68%
3	2-4	1.6%	1.0%	65%
3	4-7	2.0%	1.1%	57%
3	3-6	2.3%	1.2%	53%
3	2-5	1.5%	< 1%	49%
3	3-7	1.6%	< 1%	40%
3	-5	3.4%	1.0%	31%
3	-6	1.8%	< 1%	26%
2	-1	5%	< 1%	16%
2	-2	3.3%	< 1%	9%

World Cup: North and Central America and Caribbean

Canada, Panama, Haiti, El Salvador, Curaco, and Saint Kitts and Nevis won their groups and will now play a head-to-head Round 2 to determine which three teams join the five top-seeded teams in Round 3.

In the Round 2 we have:

El Salvador (85%) vs Saint Kitts and Nevis (15%)

Haiti (41%) vs Canada (59%)

Panama (67%) vs Curaco (33%)

Country	Group	2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Mexico		< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
United States		< 1%	100%	8%	4%	89%
Costa Rica		< 1%	100%	21%	10%	45%
Honduras		< 1%	100%	21%	10%	37%
Jamaica		< 1%	100%	18%	9%	27%
Canada	B	100%	59%	12%	6%	23%
Panama	D	100%	67%	9%	4%	12%
Haiti	E	100%	41%	6%	3%	10%
El Salvador	A	100%	85%	5%	2%	5%
Curaçao	C	100%	33%	1%	< 1%	1%
Saint Kitts and Nevis	F	100%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

World Cup: Asian qualifications

Interesting matches in groups B and C with a deciding match between Jordan and Kuwait and Iraq play a crucial match against Hong Kong. 

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
Syria	7	21	22.4	(21-24)	< 1%	100%	100%	15%	6%	2%	15%	4%	8%
China	6	13	17	(16-19)	100%	< 1%	96%	12%	5%	2%	12%	3%	7%
Philippines	6	7	11.6	(10-13)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Maldives	6	6	6.98	(6-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Guam	7	0	0.338	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Syria have clinched spot 1 and China are very likely to clinch a spot as one the four best runner-ups.

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
Australia	6	18	23	(22-24)	< 1%	100%	100%	20%	31%	33%	20%	15%	64%
Jordan	6	13	15.4	(14-16)	61%	< 1%	57%	9%	5%	1%	9%	3%	6%
Kuwait	6	10	13.7	(13-14)	39%	< 1%	30%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Nepal	7	6	6.05	(6-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Taiwan	7	0	0.291	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Australia have clinched the group. Jordan and Kuwait play a deciding match on Friday.

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
Iraq	6	14	17.6	(17-18)	47%	47%	92%	24%	24%	15%	24%	14%	39%
Iran	6	12	16.8	(15-18)	46%	53%	97%	15%	28%	46%	15%	12%	74%
Bahrain	7	12	14.5	(15-15)	7%	< 1%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	1%
Hong Kong	6	5	5.65	(5-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cambodia	7	1	1.03	(1-1)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Bahrain have to win against Hong Kong to have any chance to reach the final round.

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
Uzbekistan	5	12	17	(15-18)	42%	58%	86%	20%	13%	5%	20%	8%	18%
Saudi Arabia	5	11	16.4	(15-18)	58%	42%	79%	19%	14%	6%	19%	8%	20%
Palestine	7	7	8.98	(8-10)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Singapore	7	7	7.34	(7-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Yemen	6	5	6.28	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Uzbekistan and Saudi should win the next matches against Yemen and Singapore, respectevily, and the group will most likely be decided in the last match where Saudi and Uzbekistan play.

Group E

Country

MP

Pts

Simulated Pts

2nd

1st

Round 3

3rd

2nd

1st

Round 4

Playoff

Qatar

Qatar

8

22

22

(22-22)

< 1%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

Oman

6

12

17.2

(16-18)

100%

< 1%

94%

16%

8%

2%

16%

5%

11%

India

7

6

7.56

(6-9)

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Afghanistan

6

5

6.66

(5-8)

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Bangladesh

7

2

2.11

(2-2)

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Oman have clinched the 2nd spot, but need another point to be sure for a spot in the final round.

Group F

Country

MP

Pts

Simulated Pts

2nd

1st

Round 3

3rd

2nd

1st

Round 4

Playoff

Qatar

Japan

7

21

23.7

(24-24)

< 1%

100%

100%

16%

29%

46%

16%

13%

76%

Tajikistan

7

10

12

(11-13)

90%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Kyrgyzstan

6

7

9.34

(8-10)

3%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Myanmar

6

6

7.51

(6-9)

7%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Mongolia

8

6

6

(6-6)

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Japan have clinched a spot in the final round and Tajikistan are likely to be runner-up.

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
Vietnam	6	14	17.3	(16-18)	35%	63%	87%	7%	3%	< 1%	7%	1%	3%
United Arab Emirates	6	12	15.8	(15-18)	62%	37%	74%	8%	3%	< 1%	8%	2%	3%
Thailand	7	9	10.9	(10-12)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malaysia	6	9	10.6	(9-12)	3%	< 1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Indonesia	7	1	1.5	(1-2)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Vietnam and UAE play in the last round next week, most likely deciding the group.

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
South Korea	3	7	15.1	(14-16)	10%	90%	90%	14%	28%	40%	14%	11%	68%
Lebanon	3	7	12	(11-13)	87%	10%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Turkmenistan	4	6	7.25	(6-9)	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Sri Lanka	4	0	0.103	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

North Korea have withdrawn from this group. South Korea are likely winning the group. It remains to see how the runner-up will be compared with the other runner-ups.

 

World Cup: South America

 Only five out of 18 rounds played, but Brazil and Argentina are in top as expected.

SOUTH AMERICA

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		Playoff	1st-4th	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Brazil	5	15	43.9	(41-47)	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%
Argentina	5	11	33.1	(30-36)	6%	91%	3%	94%
Uruguay	5	7	29.6	(27-33)	13%	75%	7%	82%
Colombia	5	7	26.9	(24-30)	23%	50%	12%	61%
Ecuador	5	9	26.8	(24-30)	21%	51%	10%	61%
Chile	5	5	22.1	(19-25)	15%	15%	8%	23%
Paraguay	5	7	21.1	(18-24)	12%	11%	6%	17%
Venezuela	5	3	18.6	(16-22)	6%	4%	3%	7%
Peru	5	1	17.2	(14-20)	4%	2%	2%	4%
Bolivia	5	4	11.4	(9-14)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

World Cup: North and Central America

In Round 1 in North and Central America, there are six groups in which each team play the other 4 teams once. The group winner advance to round 2, which is a head-to-head playoff round, and in round three the five top-seeded teams (Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Jamaica) join.

Last matches in Round 1 are played next week.

 

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
El Salvador	2	4	9.22	(8-10)	83%	70%	4%	2%	4%
Antigua and Barbuda	3	7	7.52	(7-8)	16%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Montserrat	3	5	5.51	(5-6)	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Grenada	3	3	5.33	(4-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
US Virgin Islands	3	0	0.0666	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

The group will likely be decided in the last match between El Salvador vs Antigua and Barbuda.

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Canada	2	6	11.1	(10-12)	86%	55%	11%	6%	22%
Suriname	3	9	9.57	(9-10)	14%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bermuda	3	3	5.46	(6-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aruba	3	3	3.08	(3-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cayman Islands	3	0	0.402	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Canada and Suriname play the last match which will decide who wins the group.

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Guatemala	3	9	10.6	(9-12)	44%	21%	2%	< 1%	2%
Curaçao	3	9	10.2	(9-12)	56%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cuba	3	3	4.64	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	3	3	4.12	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
British Virgin Islands	4	0	0	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Guatemala and Curaco play the group final next week.

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Panama	2	6	11.4	(10-12)	90%	56%	7%	4%	10%
Dominican Republic	3	7	7.43	(7-7)	10%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Barbados	3	4	5.68	(4-7)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Dominica	3	3	4.09	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Anguilla	3	0	0.0223	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Panama play Anquilla next week followed by a group final against Dominican Republic.

Group E
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Haiti	2	6	11.1	(10-12)	87%	41%	7%	3%	10%
Nicaragua	2	6	8.42	(7-9)	12%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belize	3	3	4.74	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Saint Lucia	0	0	4.25	(3-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Turks and Caicos Islands	3	0	0.637	(0-1)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Haiti play Nicaragua and deciding match next week. Nicaragua need to win to advance to Round 2.

Group F
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd round	3rd round	Playoff	Playoff Winner	Qatar
Saint Kitts and Nevis	3	9	9.98	(9-12)	100%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Trinidad and Tobago	3	5	6.79	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Guyana	3	3	5.05	(4-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Puerto Rico	3	4	4.75	(4-5)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bahamas	4	1	1	(1-1)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Saint Kitts and Nevis have clinched a spot in Round 2.

World Cup: Asian qualifications

In Asian qualifications, the 8 group winners qualify to the next round and the four best runner-ups. Top-3 in each group qualify for the Asian Cup.

Syria, Japan and Australia have already practically clinched a spot in the next round.

Group A
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
Syria	5	15	22	(21-24)	4%	96%	100%	15%	7%	2%	15%	4%	9%
China	5	10	16.3	(15-17)	86%	4%	83%	11%	5%	1%	11%	3%	6%
Philippines	5	7	12.1	(11-13)	10%	< 1%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Maldives	5	6	7.2	(6-9)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Guam	6	0	0.421	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Syria have practically clinched a spot in next round, while China have good chance to qualify as one of the best runner-ups.

Group B
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
Australia	5	15	22.9	(22-24)	3%	97%	100%	20%	31%	34%	20%	15%	66%
Jordan	4	9	16.9	(15-18)	91%	3%	89%	15%	8%	2%	15%	5%	10%
Kuwait	6	9	12.7	(12-13)	6%	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Nepal	5	6	6.39	(6-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Taiwan	6	0	0.357	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Australia can only miss next round in theory, while Jordan have a good chance to grap a spot as 2nd in the group.

Group C
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
Iraq	5	11	17.5	(17-18)	38%	54%	91%	23%	24%	16%	23%	14%	40%
Iran	5	9	15.8	(15-18)	34%	33%	66%	10%	20%	31%	10%	8%	51%
Bahrain	6	12	15.2	(15-16)	28%	13%	39%	9%	7%	3%	9%	4%	10%
Hong Kong	6	5	5.67	(5-6)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cambodia	6	1	1.09	(1-1)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

I tight race between Iraq, Iran and Bahrain.

Group D
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
Uzbekistan	4	9	16.5	(15-18)	44%	56%	79%	18%	12%	5%	18%	8%	17%
Saudi Arabia	4	8	15.9	(14-18)	54%	44%	73%	18%	13%	6%	18%	8%	20%
Palestine	7	7	8.98	(8-10)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Singapore	6	7	7.72	(7-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Yemen	5	5	6.69	(5-8)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

A two-horse race between Uzbekistan and Saudi.

Group E

Country

MP

Pts

Simulated Pts

2nd

1st

Round 3

3rd

2nd

1st

Round 4

Playoff

Qatar

Qatar

7

19

20.9

(20-22)

18%

82%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

Oman

5

12

18.1

(18-19)

82%

18%

97%

17%

9%

3%

17%

5%

12%

India

6

3

6.97

(6-9)

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Afghanistan

6

5

6.64

(5-8)

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Bangladesh

6

2

2.56

(2-3)

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Qatar will not play next round as they are already qualified as host of the World Cup. If they win the group, the extra spot goes to the 5ft runner-up. Oman have really good chances to qualify, likely as runner-up.

Group F

Country

MP

Pts

Simulated Pts

2nd

1st

Round 3

3rd

2nd

1st

Round 4

Playoff

Qatar

Japan

6

18

23.3

(22-24)

< 1%

100%

100%

15%

30%

48%

15%

12%

77%

Tajikistan

6

10

12.2

(11-13)

65%

< 1%

2%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Kyrgyzstan

5

7

12.1

(11-13)

32%

< 1%

4%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Myanmar

6

6

7.52

(6-9)

3%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Mongolia

7

3

3.2

(3-3)

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan race about the 2nd place, but have little chance of taking enough points to qualify to next round.

Group G
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
Vietnam	5	11	16.6	(15-18)	27%	66%	78%	7%	2%	< 1%	7%	1%	3%
United Arab Emirates	5	9	14.4	(13-16)	43%	27%	49%	5%	2%	< 1%	5%	1%	3%
Thailand	6	9	12	(10-13)	23%	6%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malaysia	6	9	10.7	(9-12)	7%	< 1%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Indonesia	6	1	2.08	(1-3)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Vietnam in head position, challenged by UAE and Thailand.

Group H
Country	MP	Pts	Simulated Pts		2nd	1st	Round 3	3rd	2nd	1st	Round 4	Playoff	Qatar
South Korea	4	8	18.5	(17-20)	9%	89%	97%	14%	29%	46%	14%	11%	75%
Lebanon	5	8	13.1	(12-14)	28%	5%	11%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
North Korea	5	8	13	(12-14)	44%	5%	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Turkmenistan	5	9	11.3	(10-12)	18%	< 1%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Sri Lanka	5	0	0.183	(0-0)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

South Korea nearly have qualified for the next round.