US Open bracket predictions

Projected quarterfinals:

Medvedev vs Auger Aliassime

Tsitsipas vs Fritz

Sinner vs Alcaraz

Rublev vs Nadal

 

Below are the probability for the favorites to reach different rounds and how the probabilities changed after the draw. Of the top players, we notice that 2.3 points lower chance to win now compared with before the draw, much because of potentially playing Coric in the third round. Medvedev has a fairly good draw, despite a potentially playing the Wimbldeon runner-up in the fourth round, but it's compensated by an easy path through the first rounds and an upper half that generally looks easier than the lower half with Alcaraz, Nadal and Sinner.

 

Name	R3	R4	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
C Alcaraz	88% (+0.5)	70% (-6.1)	60% (-0.7)	40% (-5.3)	27% (-3.9)	18% (-2.3)
R Nadal	88% (+3.7)	73% (+2)	60% (+6.6)	41% (+3)	23% (-0.6)	14% (+0.3)
D Medvedev	88% (+4.5)	80% (+10.5)	56% (+4.8)	41% (+5.5)	26% (+4.6)	14% (+1.8)
J Sinner	90% (+7.4)	75% (+6.1)	57% (+12.3)	32% (+2.9)	19% (+1.3)	11% (+1.2)
S Tsitsipas	89% (+9)	74% (+9.6)	53% (+7.5)	32% (+3.2)	18% (+2.1)	9% (+0.8)
C Norrie	80% (+3.4)	62% (+2.6)	39% (-0.8)	20%	9% (-1.4)	4.6% (-0.4)
T Fritz	84% (+8.4)	65% (+7.6)	37% (+5.3)	20% (+3)	10% (+1.7)	4.3% (+0.4)
C Ruud	90% (+13.8)	60% (+2.6)	36% (-1.4)	20% (+1.1)	10% (+0.7)	4.2%
A Rublev	86% (+13.1)	68% (+12.7)	39% (+9.2)	19% (+3.6)	8% (+0.5)	3.7% (+0.5)
N Kyrgios	68% (-7.8)	49% (+4.8)	24% (-2.9)	15% (+0.7)	8% (+0.8)	3.5% (+0.1)
F Auger Aliassime	70% (-1.6)	52% (-0.4)	33% (+1.3)	15% (+0.1)	7% (+0.5)	2.8% (-0.1)
M Berrettini	86% (+17.5)	65% (+17.2)	30% (+7.1)	14% (+3.7)	6% (+1.7)	2.1% (+0.5)
H Hurkacz	58% (-13.5)	46% (-5.9)	21% (-11.5)	9% (-5.9)	3.9% (-2.7)	1.8% (-1)
P Carreno Busta	51% (-16.3)	34% (-13)	19% (-2.9)	8% (-2.5)	3.4% (-0.8)	1.2% (-0.4)
B Coric	61% (-4.7)	18% (-14.3)	12% (-4.5)	4.9% (-2.3)	1.9% (-1)	< 1% (-0.3)
R Bautista Agut	66% (+2.8)	32% (-9.7)	12% (-6.1)	6% (-1.4)	2.4% (-0.4)	< 1% (-0.2)
A De Minaur	52% (-9.6)	29% (+0.2)	15% (+1.3)	5% (-0.3)	2.0%	< 1% (-0.1)
M Cilic	75% (+16.3)	50% (+13.8)	14% (-0.5)	4.8% (-0.6)	1.6% (-0.2)	< 1%
D Schwartzman	64% (+5.5)	40% (+3.4)	13% (-1.8)	5% (-0.4)	1.4% (-0.4)	< 1% (-0.1)
M Kecmanovic	67% (+9.3)	18% (-6.2)	10%	3.9% (+0.1)	1.0% (-0.2)	< 1%
S Korda	51% (+12)	20% (-0.1)	9% (-0.1)	3.4%	1.2%	< 1%
T Paul	45% (-14.6)	18% (-8.1)	8% (-3.7)	3.1% (-1.4)	1.1% (-0.5)	< 1% (-0.2)
J Isner	66% (+32.9)	24% (+8.8)	10% (+3.8)	3.2% (+1.1)	< 1% (+0.2)	< 1% (+0.1)
K Khachanov	56% (+1.7)	22% (+1.3)	11% (+2.1)	3.0% (+0.2)	< 1% (+0.1)	< 1%
F Tiafoe	45% (-11)	26% (+3.3)	8% (-1.6)	2.8% (-0.4)	< 1% (-0.3)	< 1% (-0.1)
G Dimitrov	51% (-4.8)	14% (-8.3)	7% (-2.3)	2.0% (-1.2)	< 1% (-0.4)	< 1% (-0.1)
B Van De Zandschulp	66% (+14.5)	23% (+3.5)	8% (+0.5)	2.5% (+0.2)	< 1% (+0.1)	< 1%
J Brooksby	35% (-0.7)	8% (-9.3)	4.7% (-2.7)	1.6% (-1.1)	< 1% (-0.4)	< 1% (-0.1)
A Murray	55% (+26.5)	22% (+9.7)	7% (+2.4)	2.1% (+0.8)	< 1% (+0.2)	< 1%
D Evans	48% (-2.1)	25% (+6.4)	6% (-1.3)	1.6% (-0.6)	< 1% (-0.2)	< 1%
D Shapovalov	61% (+12.5)	20% (+3.4)	7% (+1)	2.0% (+0.2)	< 1%	< 1%
I Ivashka	29% (-2.2)	18% (+4.6)	5% (-0.2)	1.4% (-0.3)	< 1% (-0.1)	< 1%

Last 32		Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
D Medvedev (88%)
		D Medvedev (80%) B Shelton (7%)
B Shelton (47%) N Basilashvili (43%)
				D Medvedev (56%) N Kyrgios (24%) R Bautista Agut (12%)
N Kyrgios (68%) T Kokkinakis (12%)
		N Kyrgios (49%) R Bautista Agut (32%) T Kokkinakis (5%)
R Bautista Agut (66%) A Tabilo (13%)
						D Medvedev (41%) N Kyrgios (15%) F Auger Aliassime (15%) P Carreno Busta (8%)
P Carreno Busta (51%) A Bublik (30%) D Thiem (17%)
		P Carreno Busta (34%) A De Minaur (29%) A Bublik (14%) D Thiem (8%)
A De Minaur (52%) F Krajinovic (19%) J Lehecka (19%)
				F Auger Aliassime (33%) P Carreno Busta (19%) A De Minaur (15%) K Khachanov (11%)
K Khachanov (56%) A Molcan (31%)
		F Auger Aliassime (52%) K Khachanov (22%) J Draper (9%)
F Auger Aliassime (70%) J Draper (16%)
								D Medvedev (26%) S Tsitsipas (18%) T Fritz (10%) C Ruud (10%)
S Tsitsipas (89%)
		S Tsitsipas (74%) Y Nishioka (9%)
Y Nishioka (35%) M Fucsovics (28%) M Cressy (19%) A Davidovich Fokina (18%)
				S Tsitsipas (53%) M Berrettini (30%) A Murray (7%)
A Murray (55%) J Millman (25%) F Cerundolo (16%)
		M Berrettini (65%) A Murray (22%)
M Berrettini (86%)
						S Tsitsipas (32%) T Fritz (20%) C Ruud (20%) M Berrettini (14%)
T Fritz (84%)
		T Fritz (65%) B Van De Zandschulp (23%)
B Van De Zandschulp (66%) S Wawrinka (29%)
				T Fritz (37%) C Ruud (36%) S Korda (9%)
S Korda (51%) T Paul (45%)
		C Ruud (60%) S Korda (20%) T Paul (18%)
C Ruud (90%)
										C Alcaraz (18%) R Nadal (14%) D Medvedev (14%) J Sinner (11%) S Tsitsipas (9%)
H Hurkacz (58%) I Ivashka (29%)
		H Hurkacz (46%) I Ivashka (18%) A Mannarino (11%)
A Mannarino (38%) D Goffin (31%) L Musetti (28%)
				J Sinner (57%) H Hurkacz (21%) G Dimitrov (7%)
G Dimitrov (51%) B Nakashima (37%)
		J Sinner (75%) G Dimitrov (14%)
J Sinner (90%)
						C Alcaraz (40%) J Sinner (32%) H Hurkacz (9%)
M Cilic (75%) A Ramos (20%)
		M Cilic (50%) D Evans (25%) A Ramos (8%)
D Evans (48%) C Oconnell (21%) J Vesely (20%)
				C Alcaraz (60%) M Cilic (14%) B Coric (12%)
B Coric (61%) J Brooksby (35%)
		C Alcaraz (70%) B Coric (18%)
C Alcaraz (88%)
								C Alcaraz (27%) R Nadal (23%) J Sinner (19%) C Norrie (9%)
C Norrie (80%) M Mcdonald (15%)
		C Norrie (62%) J Isner (24%)
J Isner (66%) H Rune (26%)
				A Rublev (39%) C Norrie (39%) J Isner (10%)
D Shapovalov (61%) J Munar (30%)
		A Rublev (68%) D Shapovalov (20%)
A Rublev (86%)
						R Nadal (41%) C Norrie (20%) A Rublev (19%) D Schwartzman (5%)
D Schwartzman (64%) J Sock (21%)
		D Schwartzman (40%) F Tiafoe (26%) M Ymer (12%) J Sock (8%)
F Tiafoe (45%) M Ymer (27%) M Giron (19%)
				R Nadal (60%) D Schwartzman (13%) M Kecmanovic (10%)
M Kecmanovic (67%) R Gasquet (20%)
		R Nadal (73%) M Kecmanovic (18%)
R Nadal (88%)

 

US Open: Probabilities pre-draw

 Probabilities  prior the draw.

Name	R3	R4	QF	SF	Final	Champion
C Alcaraz	89%	77%	61%	45%	31%	20%
R Nadal	86%	72%	54%	38%	23%	14%
D Medvedev	85%	70%	52%	36%	21%	12%
J Sinner	85%	70%	45%	29%	18%	10%
S Tsitsipas	82%	66%	45%	29%	16%	8%
C Norrie	79%	61%	40%	20%	10%	5%
C Ruud	78%	59%	38%	19%	9%	4%
T Fritz	78%	59%	32%	17%	8%	4%
N Kyrgios	78%	45%	27%	15%	7%	3%
A Rublev	77%	57%	30%	16%	7%	3%
F Auger Aliassime	75%	55%	33%	15%	7%	3%
H Hurkacz	75%	54%	33%	15%	7%	3%
P Carreno Busta	72%	50%	23%	11%	4%	2%
M Berrettini	72%	50%	23%	11%	4%	2%
B Coric	70%	34%	17%	7%	3%	1%
R Bautista Agut	68%	44%	19%	8%	3%	< 1%
A De Minaur	67%	30%	14%	5%	2%	< 1%
M Cilic	64%	39%	15%	6%	2%	< 1%
D Schwartzman	64%	39%	15%	6%	2%	< 1%
T Paul	64%	27%	12%	5%	2%	< 1%
S Korda	40%	20%	9%	3%	1%	< 1%
G Dimitrov	61%	24%	9%	3%	1%	< 1%
F Tiafoe	60%	23%	9%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
R Opelka	60%	23%	9%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
K Khachanov	59%	22%	9%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
M Kecmanovic	37%	18%	7%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
J Brooksby	38%	18%	7%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
B Van De Zandschulp	57%	21%	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
D Evans	56%	20%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
D Shapovalov	54%	18%	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
I Ivashka	32%	14%	5%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
A Murray	31%	13%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

PL: Match week 3

 Hot Teams
Arsenal: 9 points in the last 3 matches, 3.9 more than expected
Brighton: 7 points in the last 3 matches, 3.4 more than expected
Leeds: 7 points in the last 3 matches, 3.1 more than expected

Cold Teams
Liverpool: 2 points in the last 3 matches, 4.5 less than expected
West Ham: 0 points in the last 3 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Everton: 1 point in the last 3 matches, 3.0 less than expected

Simulated points for winner: 81 - 88
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 41

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
7	Man City	82.4	+53	< 1%	99.98%	99.92%	99.74%	99.08%	62%	< 1%	< 1%	99.29%
2	Liverpool	78.3	+48	< 1%	99.85%	99.62%	99.0%	96.9%	31%	< 1%	1.9%	97.7%
4	Chelsea	66.8	+22	< 1%	92%	86%	77%	59%	2.4%	6%	23%	62%
9	Arsenal	66.3	+22	< 1%	91%	85%	74%	56%	2.2%	6%	23%	61%
7	Tottenham	65.8	+21	< 1%	90%	83%	72%	53%	1.9%	7%	26%	56%
3	Man United	56.3	+3	< 1%	48%	35%	21%	11%	< 1%	12%	22%	17%
7	Brighton	54.8	+1	1.3%	40%	28%	16%	8%	< 1%	12%	19%	8%
5	Newcastle	52.1	-1	2.9%	27%	17%	9%	3.9%	< 1%	9%	13%	3.9%
1	Leicester	52.0	-1	3.2%	27%	17%	9%	4.0%	< 1%	10%	14%	4.0%
4	Crystal Palace	51.2	-2	3.8%	23%	15%	7%	3.1%	< 1%	9%	12%	3.1%
0	West Ham	49.9	-3	5%	19%	11%	5%	2.2%	< 1%	7%	26%	2.2%
7	Leeds	47.9	-9	8%	11%	6%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	4.8%	6%	1.0%
3	Aston Villa	47.8	-10	9%	12%	7%	3.0%	1.1%	< 1%	5%	7%	1.1%
4	Brentford	46.4	-8	12%	9%	4.7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%	5%	< 1%
1	Wolves	44.5	-11	18%	6%	2.9%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	4.1%	< 1%
1	Everton	41.3	-16	32%	2.2%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	2.4%	< 1%
1	Southampton	39.9	-22	40%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1.7%	< 1%
5	Fulham	39.4	-24	43%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%
3	Bournemouth	36.9	-31	58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
4	Forest	36.0	-31	63%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Leicester	61%	21%	18%	Southampton
Southampton	34%	24%	42%	Man United
Chelsea	62%	20%	18%	Leicester
Liverpool	86%	9%	4.7%	Bournemouth
Man City	77%	14%	9%	Crystal Palace
Brighton	56%	22%	22%	Leeds
Brentford	51%	23%	26%	Everton
Arsenal	72%	16%	12%	Fulham
Aston Villa	44%	24%	32%	West Ham
Wolves	45%	24%	31%	Newcastle
Forest	23%	22%	55%	Tottenham

PL: Match week 2

 

Simulated points for winner: 82 - 90
Simulated points for fourth: 64 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 37 - 41

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
6	Man City	83.3	+53	< 1%	99.98%	99.95%	99.82%	99.31%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	99.47%
2	Liverpool	80.1	+49	< 1%	99.93%	99.81%	99.45%	98.2%	35%	< 1%	1.2%	98.6%
4	Chelsea	68.5	+25	< 1%	95%	91%	84%	70%	2.9%	4.2%	18%	72%
6	Arsenal	65.1	+19	< 1%	88%	82%	70%	50%	1.2%	7%	26%	56%
4	Tottenham	64.9	+21	< 1%	88%	81%	70%	50%	1.2%	7%	27%	53%
0	Man United	54.2	+2	1.7%	40%	28%	16%	7%	< 1%	11%	20%	14%
4	Brighton	52.8	-1	2.5%	32%	22%	12%	5%	< 1%	10%	16%	5%
1	Leicester	52.0	-1	3.2%	29%	19%	10%	4.3%	< 1%	10%	15%	4.2%
4	Newcastle	51.9	-2	3.2%	28%	18%	10%	4.2%	< 1%	9%	14%	4.1%
0	West Ham	51.7	-1	3.5%	28%	18%	10%	4.0%	< 1%	8%	29%	4.0%
1	Crystal Palace	50.0	-4	5%	20%	13%	6%	2.5%	< 1%	8%	11%	2.5%
3	Aston Villa	48.8	-8	7%	16%	10%	4.6%	1.8%	< 1%	6%	9%	1.7%
4	Brentford	47.8	-7	9%	13%	7%	3.5%	1.3%	< 1%	5%	7%	1.3%
4	Leeds	46.0	-13	14%	8%	4.6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	4.8%	< 1%
1	Wolves	45.2	-11	16%	7%	4.0%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	4.9%	< 1%
0	Everton	42.3	-16	27%	3.4%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	2.9%	< 1%
1	Southampton	39.9	-22	40%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	1.8%	< 1%
3	Bournemouth	37.9	-28	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
2	Fulham	37.8	-25	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
3	Forest	35.8	-32	64%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Tottenham	65%	19%	16%	Wolves
Everton	59%	21%	20%	Forest
Leicester	61%	20%	18%	Southampton
Crystal Palace	51%	23%	26%	Aston Villa
Fulham	40%	24%	35%	Brentford
Bournemouth	26%	23%	51%	Arsenal
Leeds	28%	23%	49%	Chelsea
West Ham	52%	23%	25%	Brighton
Newcastle	22%	22%	57%	Man City
Man United	25%	23%	52%	Liverpool

 

PL: Game Day 1

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
3	Man City	83.0	+52	< 1%	99.97%	99.92%	99.76%	99.16%	53%	< 1%	< 1%	99.35%
1	Liverpool	81.6	+51	< 1%	99.95%	99.86%	99.59%	98.7%	42%	< 1%	< 1%	99.02%
3	Chelsea	69.3	+26	< 1%	95.3%	92%	85%	72%	3.4%	3.9%	17%	74%
3	Tottenham	64.9	+20	< 1%	87%	79%	68%	49%	1.0%	8%	27%	51%
3	Arsenal	64.0	+18	< 1%	84%	76%	63%	43%	< 1%	8%	27%	50%
0	Man United	55.6	+6	1.1%	46%	33%	20%	10%	< 1%	11%	21%	17%
3	Brighton	53.6	-1	2.1%	34%	23%	13%	6%	< 1%	10%	17%	6%
0	West Ham	53.3	+1	2.3%	33%	23%	13%	6%	< 1%	9%	31%	6%
1	Leicester	52.8	+0	2.5%	31%	21%	12%	5%	< 1%	10%	16%	5%
3	Newcastle	52.0	-2	3.2%	27%	18%	10%	4.2%	< 1%	9%	13%	4.2%
0	Crystal Palace	49.4	-6	6%	17%	10%	5%	2.1%	< 1%	7%	9%	2.1%
0	Aston Villa	47.7	-9	9%	12%	7%	3.4%	1.3%	< 1%	5%	7%	1.3%
0	Wolves	46.2	-10	13%	9%	4.9%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	4.2%	5%	< 1%
1	Brentford	46.2	-11	13%	9%	4.8%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%	5%	< 1%
3	Leeds	46.1	-13	13%	8%	4.6%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	4.8%	< 1%
0	Everton	43.2	-15	23%	4.2%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	3.2%	< 1%
0	Southampton	40.5	-22	36%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	1.9%	< 1%
3	Bournemouth	38.2	-26	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
1	Fulham	37.6	-26	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Forest	33.9	-33	72%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Aston Villa	54%	22%	24%	Everton
Arsenal	57%	21%	21%	Leicester
Wolves	59%	21%	20%	Fulham
Man City	85%	10%	4.9%	Bournemouth
Southampton	45%	24%	31%	Leeds
Brighton	49%	23%	27%	Newcastle
Brentford	38%	24%	37%	Man United
Forest	30%	24%	46%	West Ham
Chelsea	53%	23%	25%	Tottenham
Liverpool	77%	14%	9%	Crystal Palace