Europa and Conference League

Seven teams have practically clinched top24 and a place in the knockout stage and of those Lazio and Bilbao have practically (>99.9%) clinched Top8 and a place in the round of 16.

Europa League

Clinching Scenarios

• Frankfurt clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Ferencvaros (89%)
• Lazio clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Sociedad (82%)
• Bilbao clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Besiktas (80%)
• Galatasaray clinch Top16 if they win against Dynamo Kyiv (72%)
• Man United clinch Top16 if they win against Rangers (67%)
• Porto clinch Top24 if they win against Olympiakos (65%)
• Lyon clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Fenerbahce (54%)
• Bodoe Glimt clinch Top24 if they win against M Tel Aviv (53%)
• Tottenham clinch Top16 if they win against Hoffenheim (49%)
• St Gillis clinch Top24 if they win against Braga (48%)
• Viktoria Plzen clinch Top24 if they win against Anderlecht (46%)
• Ajax clinch Top16 if they win against RFS and Lazio win against Sociedad (45%)
• Roma clinch Top24 if they win against Alkmaar (45%)
• Sociedad clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Lazio (39%)
• Fenerbahce clinch Top24 if they win against Lyon and Slavia Praha draw (or win) against PAOK (31%)
• Alkmaar clinch Top24 if they win against Roma and Frankfurt and Ferencvaros do not draw  (26%)
• Anderlecht clinch Top8 if they win against Viktoria Plzen and Man United draw (or win) against Rangers (26%)
• Olympiakos clinch Top24 if they win against Porto (16%)
• Rangers clinch Top16 if they win against Man United (15%)
• Steaua clinch Top16 if they win against Karabakh Agdam and Lazio win against Sociedad (13%)
• Ferencvaros clinch Top24 if they win against Frankfurt (11%)
• Lyon clinch Top8 if they win against Fenerbahce and Hoffenheim draw against Tottenham (7%)
• Sociedad clinch Top16 if they win against Lazio and Fenerbahce draw against Lyon (4%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Lazio	20	17-5	100%	100%	99.95%	>99.99%	75%	50%	32%	16%
2	16	Bilbao	20	14-3	100%	100%	99.97%	>99.99%	65%	36%	18%	9%
3	14	Anderlecht	17	14-9	100%	100%	82%	93%	44%	16%	6%	2.8%
4	13	Lyon	16	20-10	100%	>99.99%	88%	96.1%	57%	28%	13%	6%
5	12	Man United	16	18-12	100%	99.31%	81%	95.2%	64%	37%	21%	10%
6	13	Frankfurt	16	15-9	100%	99.92%	83%	95.0%	59%	31%	15%	8%
7	11	Tottenham	15	15-8	100%	98.5%	67%	94%	68%	46%	29%	15%
8	12	Galatasaray	15	20-14	100%	99.14%	66%	89%	49%	23%	10%	5.0%
9	10	Ajax	14	16-6	>99.99%	94%	44%	79%	38%	16%	7%	3.3%
10	11	Rangers	14	15-11	100%	85%	22%	61%	21%	7%	2.0%	< 1%
11	10	Sociedad	13	14-10	99.96%	81%	14%	71%	35%	17%	8%	3.8%
12	10	Bodoe Glimt	13	13-13	99.68%	68%	9%	47%	12%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
13	8	Porto	12	14-10	96.3%	67%	6%	73%	41%	24%	14%	7%
14	9	Roma	12	13-9	98.9%	72%	16%	74%	39%	21%	10%	5%
15	9	Olympiakos	12	6-4	97.9%	59%	5%	52%	18%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
16	11	Steaua	12	13-13	>99.99%	58%	8%	31%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Viktoria Plzen	12	12-13	96.4%	47%	4.1%	49%	16%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
18	9	Ferencvaros	11	14-13	94%	40%	3.1%	32%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
19	8	St Gillis	11	7-7	85%	32%	< 1%	42%	14%	4.8%	1.5%	< 1%
20	8	Alkmaar	11	10-11	81%	28%	< 1%	34%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
21	8	Fenerbahce	11	9-10	85%	33%	< 1%	50%	21%	9%	3.8%	1.9%
22	7	Midtjylland	10	7-10	61%	12%	< 1%	22%	5%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	Braga	9	11-14	53%	9%	< 1%	25%	9%	3.1%	1.0%	< 1%
24	7	PAOK	8	12-11	53%	8%	< 1%	19%	4.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Slavia Praha	8	9-10	39%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	11%	5%	2.3%	1.2%
26	6	Hoffenheim	8	7-10	37%	4.0%	< 1%	17%	6%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
27	7	Elfsborg	8	9-15	32%	1.7%	< 1%	7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	4	Twente	7	11-11	31%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
29	6	M Tel Aviv	7	10-17	27%	3.8%	< 1%	9%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	6	Besiktas	7	8-17	18%	1.1%	< 1%	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	2	Nice	6	9-16	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Karabakh Agdam	6	5-15	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Razgrad	6	4-14	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	4	Malmoe	5	9-16	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	2	RFS	2	8-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	8-8	13	14-12	16	19-7
5%	10	7-9	12	14-7	16	14-7
25%	9	9-10	12	8-6	15	15-7
50%	9	6-9	12	12-12	15	11-6
75%	9	8-18	11	15-12	14	19-9
95%	8	11-15	11	12-13	14	15-11
99%	8	10-16	11	7-10	14	8-6

Europa Conference League

Clinching Scenarios

• Betis clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against HJK Helsinki (96%)
• Panathinaikos clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Dinamo Minsk (93%)
• Gent clinch Top16 if they win against Larne (84%)
• APOEL clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against FK Astana (79%)
• Cercle Brugge clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Bueyueksehir (78%)
• Jagiellonia clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Olimpija Ljubljana (78%)
• Fiorentina clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Guimaraes (73%)
• Hearts clinch Top24 if they win against Petrocub (70%)
• Heidenheim clinch Top16 if they win against StGallen (69%)
• Legia clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Djurgarden (64%)
• Rapid Wien clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against FC Kobenhavn (63%)
• Djurgarden clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Legia (60%)
• Guimaraes clinch Top8 if Chelsea draw (or win) against Shamrock and FC Kobenhavn draw (or win) against Rapid Wien (60%)
• Celje clinch Top24 if they win against The New Saints and Cercle Brugge draw (or win) against Bueyueksehir (58%)
• Cercle Brugge clinch Top8 if they win against Bueyueksehir (56%)
• Lugano clinch Top8 if they win against Paphos (52%)
• Borac Banja Luka clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Omonia (52%)
• Omonia clinch Top24 if they win against Borac Banja Luka (48%)
• FC Kobenhavn clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Rapid Wien and Rapid Wien and FC Kobenhavn do not draw  (37%)
• Vikingur clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against LASK (32%)
• Jagiellonia clinch Top8 if they win against Olimpija Ljubljana and Paphos draw (or win) against Lugano (27%)
• Paphos clinch Top16 if they win against Lugano (25%)
• Olimpija Ljubljana clinch Top16 if they win against Jagiellonia (22%)
• Bueyueksehir clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Cercle Brugge and Cercle Brugge and Bueyueksehir do not draw  (22%)
• Mlada Boleslav clinch Top24 if they win against Molde (22%)
• Shamrock clinch Top8 if they win against Chelsea (2%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	15	Chelsea	18	26-6	100%	100%	100%	100%	92%	80%	67%	33%
2	12	Fiorentina	15	18-6	100%	100%	98.3%	99.87%	87%	69%	49%	25%
3	12	Lugano	15	10-5	100%	100%	80%	92%	42%	13%	3.0%	1.5%
4	12	Legia	13	13-3	100%	100%	90%	96.9%	56%	23%	7%	3.7%
5	10	Cercle Brugge	13	14-6	100%	>99.99%	58%	85%	40%	14%	3.8%	1.9%
6	13	Guimaraes	13	15-9	100%	100%	99.80%	99.95%	64%	31%	12%	6%
7	10	Jagiellonia	13	11-5	100%	99.85%	58%	85%	41%	15%	4.2%	2.1%
8	10	APOEL	13	8-4	100%	99.06%	57%	79%	27%	7%	1.1%	< 1%
9	9	Gent	12	11-8	100%	95%	38%	85%	49%	24%	9%	4.7%
10	9	Heidenheim	12	9-8	100%	83%	16%	81%	46%	24%	10%	5%
11	11	Shamrock	11	11-7	100%	100%	6%	34%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	10	Djurgarden	11	9-7	100%	95.2%	36%	70%	23%	6%	1.2%	< 1%
13	10	Rapid Wien	11	8-6	100%	88%	36%	75%	33%	12%	3.1%	1.5%
14	7	Betis	10	8-5	99.84%	85%	< 1%	82%	49%	29%	14%	7%
15	7	Panathinaikos	10	9-8	99.60%	75%	< 1%	66%	28%	11%	3.5%	1.8%
16	9	Paphos	9	11-8	100%	65%	19%	59%	20%	6%	1.2%	< 1%
17	8	FC Kobenhavn	9	9-7	100%	42%	< 1%	69%	35%	17%	6%	3.2%
18	9	Olimpija Ljubljana	9	8-8	100%	43%	8%	52%	17%	5%	1.1%	< 1%
19	6	Hearts	9	7-9	85%	2.0%	< 1%	29%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
20	7	Borac Banja Luka	8	4-7	75%	11%	< 1%	13%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Celje	7	12-11	75%	< 1%	< 1%	25%	6%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
22	6	Omonia	7	9-9	79%	9%	< 1%	32%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
23	4	Molde	7	7-8	56%	< 1%	< 1%	28%	11%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
24	7	Vikingur	7	6-8	87%	9%	< 1%	17%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Backa Topola	7	7-10	45%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	6	Mlada Boleslav	6	5-8	43%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
27	5	Bueyueksehir	5	9-13	24%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	2	LASK	5	6-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	FK Astana	4	4-9	15%	< 1%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	HJK Helsinki	4	5-13	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	4	StGallen	4	9-18	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	4	Noah	4	5-15	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	The New Saints	3	4-10	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	3	Dinamo Minsk	3	4-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	7	9-8	10	9-5	13	10-4
5%	7	8-8	10	9-7	13	11-7
25%	7	5-7	10	8-7	12	17-7
50%	7	4-7	10	8-8	12	13-8
75%	7	7-13	9	11-8	12	10-7
95%	6	9-12	9	8-7	11	14-7
99%	6	6-11	9	7-8	11	11-7

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	95%	19.87	12.07	27.29
ITA	43%	16.45	10.44	23.75
POR	25%	15.55	9.3	26.9
ESP	17%	15.19	9.29	22.86
BEL	14%	15.07	9.8	24.1
CYP	2.7%	13.28	9.33	22.67
GER	2.6%	13.39	7.75	22.36
GRE	< 1%	10.9	7.13	19.88
FRA	< 1%	11.08	6.93	18.57
NED	< 1%	10.34	6.33	19.08
TUR	< 1%	10.59	7.1	18.4
CZE	< 1%	10.05	7.5	18
SWE	< 1%	9.82	8	17.25
NOR	< 1%	8.2	6.13	15.88
DEN	< 1%	8.24	5.75	15.88

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 250 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	12%	37%	36%	14%	1.9%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	31%	72%	96%

Number of semifinalists from ITA; 244 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	3.6%	19%	36%	29%	11%	1.6%
Chance if	1.8%	9%	31%	63%	89%	98.8%

Number of quarterfinalists from ITA; 239 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.9%	11%	29%	34%	19%	4.6%
Chance if	< 1%	4.2%	21%	50%	77%	93%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 210 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	42%	42%	14%	1.9%
Chance if	5%	27%	69%	97%

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 204 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	38%	31%	12%	2.2%
Chance if	< 1%	4.1%	21%	58%	90%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 197 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.6%	11%	28%	34%	19%	5%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	14%	41%	72%	93%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from POR; 166 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	3.8%	23%	43%	26%	4.6%
Chance if	< 1%	3.0%	20%	48%	76%

Number of quarterfinalists from BEL; 145 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	13%	38%	36%	12%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	2.8%	17%	46%	81%

Number of semifinalists from BEL; 127 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	50%	40%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	3.0%	17%	53%	88%

Number of semifinalists from ENG; 105 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.0%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	< 1%
Chance if	32%	69%	93%	99.5%	99.99%	100%	100%

 

Clinching Scenarios in Europa and Conference League

 

Europa League

Clinching Scenarios

• Tottenham clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Rangers (74%)
• Lyon clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Frankfurt (71%)
• Lazio clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Ajax (66%)
• Bilbao clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Fenerbahce (58%)
• Galatasaray clinch Top16 if they win against Malmoe (50%)
• Rangers clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Tottenham (49%)
• Man United clinch Top24 if they win against Viktoria Plzen (44%)
• Anderlecht clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Slavia Praha (43%)
• Viktoria Plzen clinch Top24 if they win against Man United (32%)
• Frankfurt clinch Top16 if they win against Lyon (29%)
• Ajax clinch Top16 if they win against Lazio and Rangers and Tottenham do not draw  (26%)
• Olympiakos clinch Top24 if they win against Twente and Malmoe draw (or win) against Galatasaray (25%)
• Ferencvaros clinch Top24 if they win against PAOK (24%)
• Steaua clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Hoffenheim and Razgrad draw (or win) against Alkmaar (21%)
• Fenerbahce clinch Top24 if they win against Bilbao and Man United win against Viktoria Plzen (18%)
• Anderlecht clinch Top16 if they win against Slavia Praha and PAOK draw (or win) against Ferencvaros (16%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	13	Lazio	19	16-8	100%	99.98%	94%	98.8%	73%	49%	32%	16%
2	13	Bilbao	19	12-4	100%	99.96%	94%	98.3%	63%	35%	18%	9%
3	13	Frankfurt	17	15-9	100%	99.83%	89%	96.5%	60%	31%	16%	8%
4	11	Galatasaray	17	19-16	100%	97.8%	74%	91%	51%	24%	10%	5%
5	10	Ajax	16	17-7	>99.99%	96.8%	68%	87%	45%	19%	8%	3.9%
6	10	Tottenham	16	17-9	>99.99%	98.0%	75%	95%	70%	47%	30%	15%
7	10	Lyon	15	19-8	>99.99%	95.6%	63%	88%	50%	25%	11%	6%
8	9	Man United	15	15-9	99.76%	92%	57%	88%	57%	34%	19%	9%
9	11	Anderlecht	15	14-12	>99.99%	89%	46%	75%	33%	12%	4.3%	2.1%
10	10	Rangers	13	16-11	99.90%	78%	27%	62%	22%	7%	2.1%	1.0%
11	7	Sociedad	13	11-9	95.5%	65%	11%	65%	32%	16%	7%	3.5%
12	9	Ferencvaros	12	18-15	96.5%	60%	13%	40%	9%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
13	8	Olympiakos	12	10-7	94%	62%	13%	54%	20%	7%	2.2%	1.1%
14	9	Viktoria Plzen	12	14-12	96.3%	63%	18%	56%	20%	7%	2.0%	1.0%
15	8	Fenerbahce	12	10-8	93%	61%	17%	62%	29%	13%	5%	2.7%
16	6	Roma	12	7-6	87%	49%	9%	61%	33%	18%	9%	4.4%
17	10	Steaua	12	10-10	98.3%	50%	10%	30%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	5	Porto	11	21-14	89%	53%	6%	66%	38%	23%	13%	6%
19	7	Bodoe Glimt	11	12-10	89%	47%	6%	38%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
20	7	Alkmaar	11	12-14	78%	32%	4.1%	34%	10%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
21	4	Slavia Praha	10	9-7	71%	23%	< 1%	44%	20%	10%	4.5%	2.3%
22	7	Braga	10	9-11	65%	19%	1.7%	32%	12%	4.2%	1.4%	< 1%
23	7	Midtjylland	10	7-9	66%	19%	1.4%	24%	6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
24	5	St Gillis	9	11-12	58%	17%	< 1%	28%	10%	3.4%	1.1%	< 1%
25	5	Hoffenheim	9	10-13	52%	12%	< 1%	25%	8%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
26	4	PAOK	8	9-16	28%	3.6%	< 1%	10%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	6	Besiktas	8	10-18	28%	5%	< 1%	7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Twente	7	11-13	33%	5.0%	< 1%	14%	4.6%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%
29	2	Nice	7	9-14	18%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	3.8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	M Tel Aviv	7	8-14	21%	2.9%	< 1%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	4	Elfsborg	7	9-16	15%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Karabakh Agdam	7	8-18	15%	1.9%	< 1%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Malmoe	6	8-17	8%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	2	Razgrad	5	10-15	6%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	0	Dynamo Kyiv	3	6-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	2	RFS	3	6-18	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	12-11	13	14-10	16	20-8
5%	10	9-10	13	11-9	16	17-10
25%	10	15-24	12	16-13	15	17-9
50%	9	14-16	12	9-8	15	14-10
75%	9	12-17	11	13-9	14	16-8
95%	8	12-15	11	10-10	14	14-11
99%	8	9-14	11	10-13	13	17-8

Europa Conference League

Clinching Scenarios

• Chelsea clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against FK Astana (93%)
• Fiorentina clinch Top16 if they win against LASK (83%)
• Gent clinch Top24 if they win against Backa Topola (78%)
• Shamrock clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Borac Banja Luka (75%)
• Guimaraes clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against StGallen (68%)
• Jagiellonia clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Mlada Boleslav (59%)
• Rapid Wien clinch Top16 if they draw (or win) against Omonia (59%)
• Legia clinch Top8 if they win against Lugano (57%)
• Paphos clinch Top24 if they win against Celje (57%)
• Shamrock clinch Top16 if they win against Borac Banja Luka (52%)
• Heidenheim clinch Top16 if they win against Bueyueksehir (46%)
• Djurgarden clinch Top24 if they win against Vikingur (46%)
• Olimpija Ljubljana clinch Top16 if they win against Cercle Brugge (43%)
• APOEL clinch Top24 if they win against Noah (41%)
• Cercle Brugge clinch Top24 if they win against Olimpija Ljubljana (32%)
• Vikingur clinch Top24 if they win against Djurgarden (30%)
• Borac Banja Luka clinch Top24 if they win against Shamrock (25%)
• Lugano clinch Top16 if they win against Legia (21%)
• FC Kobenhavn clinch Top24 if they win against Hearts and HJK Helsinki win against Molde (15%)
• Hearts clinch Top24 if they win against FC Kobenhavn (12%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	12	Chelsea	18	25-5	100%	100%	99.99%	>99.99%	92%	80%	67%	33%
2	12	Legia	15	14-1	100%	100%	98.6%	99.60%	59%	25%	8%	3.9%
3	9	Fiorentina	13	15-8	100%	99.25%	87%	99.01%	86%	68%	49%	24%
4	10	Jagiellonia	13	13-6	100%	99.89%	80%	93%	48%	18%	4.9%	2.4%
5	10	Rapid Wien	13	7-3	100%	98.3%	65%	87%	42%	15%	3.8%	1.9%
6	10	Guimaraes	13	11-8	100%	98.9%	64%	91%	55%	27%	10%	5%
7	9	Heidenheim	13	9-6	100%	96.1%	72%	94%	62%	33%	14%	7%
8	9	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	8-5	100%	87%	44%	75%	29%	8%	1.7%	< 1%
9	9	Lugano	12	12-10	100%	87%	47%	78%	33%	10%	2.4%	1.2%
10	6	Gent	12	10-8	99.16%	87%	39%	84%	49%	24%	9%	4.6%
11	8	Shamrock	11	12-14	99.97%	62%	7%	31%	4.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
12	7	Cercle Brugge	10	11-6	99.68%	74%	24%	70%	30%	11%	2.8%	1.4%
13	4	Betis	10	9-6	97.1%	68%	< 1%	79%	47%	28%	14%	7%
14	7	APOEL	10	8-5	98.1%	75%	24%	60%	18%	4.5%	< 1%	< 1%
15	7	Djurgarden	10	9-8	98.2%	66%	18%	58%	18%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%
16	4	Panathinaikos	10	8-8	93%	55%	< 1%	61%	26%	10%	3.2%	1.6%
17	6	Paphos	9	10-8	92%	49%	11%	52%	17%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%
18	7	Borac Banja Luka	9	6-6	92%	42%	7%	25%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
19	6	Hearts	9	7-8	89%	30%	3.5%	37%	9%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
20	5	FC Kobenhavn	8	14-9	89%	38%	4.8%	64%	32%	16%	6%	3.0%
21	7	Vikingur	8	7-8	91%	35%	4.1%	24%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	4	Celje	7	14-12	81%	18%	< 1%	31%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
23	3	Molde	7	8-9	61%	12%	< 1%	34%	13%	4.6%	1.3%	< 1%
24	4	Backa Topola	7	9-13	51%	4.3%	< 1%	13%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
25	4	Noah	7	3-12	33%	6%	< 1%	8%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	3	Omonia	6	7-8	44%	7%	< 1%	19%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	Mlada Boleslav	6	5-10	23%	1.9%	< 1%	10%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	2	LASK	5	5-9	5%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	StGallen	5	10-16	26%	3.0%	< 1%	11%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	4	FK Astana	5	3-9	19%	1.3%	< 1%	6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	2	Bueyueksehir	4	6-11	7%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	The New Saints	3	4-8	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	HJK Helsinki	3	5-12	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	0	Dinamo Minsk	3	5-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	1	Petrocub	1	2-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	0	Larne	0	4-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	7-10	10	10-6	13	14-9
5%	7	12-11	10	9-7	13	10-6
25%	7	8-10	10	8-8	12	13-7
50%	7	7-11	9	13-9	12	9-5
75%	7	7-15	9	9-8	12	9-8
95%	6	6-9	9	6-9	11	9-6
99%	5	13-13	8	9-8	11	16-16

 

CL: Liverpool 15% favorites

Liverpool are the favorites and win CL in 15% of the simulations, followed by Inter and Arsenal.

At least 10 points will likely be required to reach the playoff. To avoid the playoff and advance directly to the Round of 16, it will likely require 16-17 points.

Clinching Scenarios

• Arsenal clinch Top16 if they win against Dinamo Zagreb (86%)
• Liverpool clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Lille (86%)
• Real Madrid clinch Top24 if they win against Salzburg (84%)
• Celtic clinch Top24 if they win against Young Boys and Arsenal draw (or win) against Dinamo Zagreb (68%)
• Juventus clinch Top24 if they draw (or win) against Brugge (67%)
• Inter clinch Top16 if they win against Sparta Praha (64%)
• Monaco clinch Top24 if they win against Aston Villa (48%)
• Bayern clinch Top16 if they win against Feyenoord (44%)
• Brest clinch Top16 if they win against Shakhtar (40%)
• Milan clinch Top16 if they win against Girona and Shakhtar draw (or win) against Brest (37%)
• Dortmund clinch Top16 if they win against Bologna (37%)
• Benfica clinch Top24 if they win against Barcelona (36%)
• Sporting clinch Top24 if they win against RB Leipzig (36%)
• Leverkusen clinch Top16 if they win against Atletico (34%)
• Brugge clinch Top24 if they win against Juventus (33%)
• Man City clinch Top24 if they win against Paris SG and Arsenal win against Dinamo Zagreb (32%)
• Feyenoord clinch Top24 if they win against Bayern (32%)
• Aston Villa clinch Top16 if they win against Monaco (29%)
• Barcelona clinch Top8 if they win against Benfica and Monaco draw (or win) against Aston Villa (28%)
• Atletico clinch Top16 if they win against Leverkusen and RB Leipzig draw (or win) against Sporting (27%)
• Lille clinch Top16 if they win against Liverpool (14%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	18	Liverpool	22	16-3	100%	100%	99.99%	>99.99%	71%	46%	29%	15%
2	15	Barcelona	18	24-9	100%	>99.99%	89%	96.5%	58%	31%	15%	8%
3	13	Arsenal	17	18-4	100%	99.80%	90%	97.5%	67%	42%	25%	12%
4	13	Inter	17	13-4	100%	98.8%	81%	95.2%	66%	42%	25%	13%
5	12	Bayern	16	23-11	100%	98.6%	63%	88%	52%	27%	13%	7%
6	13	Leverkusen	16	19-8	100%	98.7%	70%	89%	50%	25%	11%	6%
7	12	Dortmund	16	20-10	100%	95.8%	50%	78%	35%	14%	5.0%	2.5%
8	13	Aston Villa	16	16-10	100%	94%	53%	76%	30%	10%	3.1%	1.6%
9	12	Milan	16	15-10	>99.99%	92%	46%	76%	34%	13%	4.8%	2.4%
10	13	Brest	16	14-12	100%	84%	30%	52%	12%	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
11	13	Lille	16	12-10	100%	84%	27%	63%	25%	9%	2.8%	1.4%
12	12	Atletico	15	19-13	100%	88%	36%	71%	31%	12%	4.3%	2.2%
13	11	Atalanta	14	18-6	>99.99%	89%	23%	74%	40%	21%	10%	5%
14	11	Juventus	14	14-8	99.97%	78%	23%	67%	31%	13%	5%	2.6%
15	9	Real Madrid	13	18-13	99.09%	62%	< 1%	68%	38%	21%	11%	6%
16	10	Sporting	13	15-11	99.33%	59%	9%	61%	28%	13%	5%	2.7%
17	10	Monaco	13	13-13	97.5%	30%	2.9%	42%	14%	4.4%	1.3%	< 1%
18	10	Benfica	13	15-16	98.0%	34%	4.0%	46%	16%	5%	1.7%	< 1%
19	8	Man City	12	16-11	93%	30%	< 1%	69%	44%	28%	18%	9%
20	9	Celtic	12	12-11	94%	21%	< 1%	28%	6%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Feyenoord	12	17-18	94%	22%	2.4%	36%	11%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%
22	8	PSV	11	13-11	81%	16%	< 1%	38%	14%	5%	1.9%	< 1%
23	10	Brugge	11	10-14	85%	11%	< 1%	25%	5%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Paris SG	10	9-9	63%	8%	< 1%	36%	17%	9%	3.9%	1.9%
25	7	Stuttgart	10	13-14	68%	6%	< 1%	24%	7%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
26	8	Dinamo Zagreb	8	14-21	24%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	Crvena Zvezda	6	13-24	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	4	Shakhtar	5	7-16	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	Sparta Praha	5	8-24	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	2	Bologna	4	5-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	Girona	4	5-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	3	Sturm Graz	4	9-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Salzburg	4	4-24	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	15-14	14	17-7	18	17-10
5%	11	13-15	14	15-10	17	16-7
25%	10	10-10	14	11-10	16	23-11
50%	10	11-14	13	18-15	16	17-10
75%	10	6-13	13	13-11	16	15-10
95%	9	12-17	13	9-12	15	21-10
99%	8	8-9	12	12-9	15	14-8