PL: Villa vs Pool - who will clinch the CL ticket?

City put pressure on Arsenal with a 3-0 win giving them advantage with respect to gold difference. If they finish on same points, City are very likely the champions, Arsenal road to the title goes by staying ahead in points.

Tomorrow Aston Villa host Liverpool, where the winner secure a place in CL. This affect mostly other teams, like Bournemouth and Brighton though, as Premier League get an extra spot if Aston Villa win EL and don't finish top-four. This would affect also qualification to EL and Conference league for teams like  Brentford and Everton, as detailed in tables below.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
79	Arsenal	83.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
77	Man City	80.4	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
65	Man United	68.1	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Liverpool	62.2	+13	< 1%	100%	99.85%	96.6%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	96.7%
59	Aston Villa	61.3	+3	< 1%	100%	99.23%	90%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	96.8%
55	Bournemouth	57.5	+4	< 1%	91%	63%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	54%	34%
53	Brighton	55.8	+10	< 1%	75%	33%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	55%	17%
51	Brentford	53.6	+4	< 1%	17%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	31%	24%	1.3%
49	Chelsea	52.4	+7	< 1%	11%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	48%	< 1%
49	Everton	52.3	+1	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	9%	< 1%
48	Fulham	51.1	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
48	Sunderland	50.0	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
46	Newcastle	49.1	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Leeds	46.7	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Crystal Palace	45.8	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Forest	45.5	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Tottenham	40.4	-10	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	38.4	-21	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Burnley	22.9	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	20.4	-42	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	85%			61%
Man City	15%	65%	100%
Aston Villa				69%
Chelsea		35%
Crystal Palace				64%

Important matches for CL race
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (15%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bournemouth	20%	41%	48%
Liverpool	93%	99.4%	100%
Aston Villa	100%	97.3%	92%
Brighton	11%	20%	24%
Brentford	< 1%	1.6%	2.6%

	Aston Villa			Liverpool			Bournemouth			Brighton			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
65	8%	8%	100%	19%	19%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	8%	< 1%	-	19%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	22%	14%	100%	40%	21%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	54%	32%	100%	72%	32%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	59%	5%	97.1%	77%	5%	99.98%	11%	11%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	80%	21%	96.5%	91%	14%	92%	11%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	100%	20%	88%	100%	9%	75%	27%	16%	46%	15%	15%	55%	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	56%	29%	40%	15%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	62%	6%	29%	33%	19%	21%	11%	11%	10%
56	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	82%	20%	16%	63%	29%	17%	11%	< 1%	-
55	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	18%	7%	69%	6%	7%	27%	16%	1.5%
54	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	86%	18%	< 1%	63%	36%	< 1%
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	14%	< 1%	68%	4.7%	< 1%
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	86%	18%	< 1%
51	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	14%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (4.4%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Brentford	18%	29%	31%
Brighton	67%	76%	78%
Bournemouth	85%	90%	92%
Everton	7%	11%	11%
Chelsea	46%	51%	52%

	Bournemouth			Brighton			Crystal Palace			Chelsea			Brentford			Everton			Fulham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
61	11%	11%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	11%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	27%	16%	97.7%	15%	15%	98.5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	56%	29%	97.3%	15%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	62%	6%	90%	33%	19%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	11%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
56	82%	20%	84%	63%	29%	84%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
55	100%	18%	63%	69%	6%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	24%	78%	27%	16%	40%	20%	20%	39%	< 1%	< 1%	-
54	100%	< 1%	-	86%	18%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	< 1%	-	63%	36%	27%	20%	< 1%	-	19%	19%	11%
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	14%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	-	47%	23%	45%	68%	4.7%	7%	42%	22%	5.0%	19%	< 1%	-
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	75%	28%	39%	86%	18%	2.6%	75%	33%	< 1%	40%	21%	< 1%
51	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	80%	5%	35%	100%	14%	< 1%	80%	4.8%	< 1%	68%	28%	< 1%
50	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	5%	5%	64%	93%	12%	35%	100%	< 1%	-	92%	13%	< 1%	74%	6%	< 1%
49	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	5%	< 1%	-	100%	7%	35%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	8%	< 1%	89%	16%	< 1%
48	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	16%	10%	64%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	11%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Aston Villa vs Liverpool (3.7%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Brentford	49%	60%	62%
Everton	20%	28%	29%
Brighton	88%	92%	94%
Chelsea	60%	66%	68%
Fulham	6%	10%	10%
Bournemouth	96.8%	98.1%	98.7%

	Bournemouth			Brighton			Crystal Palace			Chelsea			Brentford			Everton			Fulham			Sunderland			Newcastle
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
59	27%	16%	100%	15%	15%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	56%	29%	100%	15%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	62%	6%	99.2%	33%	19%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	11%	95.7%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
56	82%	20%	98.4%	63%	29%	98.4%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	11%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
55	100%	18%	89%	69%	6%	97.5%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	24%	97.4%	27%	16%	81%	20%	20%	75%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
54	100%	< 1%	-	86%	18%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	-	24%	< 1%	-	63%	36%	70%	20%	< 1%	-	19%	19%	41%	6%	6%	48%	< 1%	< 1%	-
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	14%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	-	47%	23%	69%	68%	4.7%	39%	42%	22%	28%	19%	< 1%	-	6%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	75%	28%	56%	86%	18%	25%	75%	33%	11%	40%	21%	4.1%	17%	11%	7%	18%	18%	10%
51	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	80%	5%	39%	100%	14%	6%	80%	4.8%	1.4%	68%	28%	< 1%	45%	28%	< 1%	18%	< 1%	-
50	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	5%	5%	64%	93%	12%	35%	100%	< 1%	-	92%	13%	< 1%	74%	6%	< 1%	50%	4.8%	< 1%	38%	20%	< 1%
49	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	5%	< 1%	-	100%	7%	35%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	8%	< 1%	89%	16%	< 1%	73%	24%	< 1%	71%	33%	< 1%
48	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	16%	10%	64%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	11%	< 1%	100%	27%	< 1%	76%	5%	< 1%
47	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	41%	25%	64%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	91%	15%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points


Most likely combo of teams in CL

46%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
30%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
15%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.4%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Man City, Man United
1.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Man City, Man United

 

 

PL: City must win when Palace visit

City chances drop below 2% if they fail to win against a visiting Palace. In our simulations, City win 48% of the simulations when they win the three remaining matches.

Spurs chances to survive reduced from 85% to 81% with a draw against Leeds.

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Crystal Palace (7.3%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Man City	14%	1.8%	1.0%
Arsenal	86%	98.2%	99.0%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	47%	47%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
84	47%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
83	71%	24%	88%	16%	16%	48%
82	93%	22%	84%	16%	< 1%	-
81	95.5%	2.2%	65%	35%	20%	7%
80	98.9%	3.3%	43%	59%	23%	4.2%
79	100%	1.1%	34%	66%	8%	1.1%
78	100%	< 1%	-	83%	17%	< 1%
77	100%	< 1%	-	93%	10%	< 1%
76	100%	< 1%	-	96.0%	3.0%	< 1%
75	100%	< 1%	-	99.01%	3.0%	< 1%
74	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
79	Arsenal	83.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
74	Man City	79.6	+42	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
65	Man United	68.1	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Liverpool	62.2	+13	< 1%	100%	99.85%	96.6%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	96.7%
59	Aston Villa	61.3	+3	< 1%	100%	99.22%	90%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	96.8%
55	Bournemouth	57.5	+4	< 1%	91%	63%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	54%	34%
53	Brighton	55.8	+10	< 1%	75%	32%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	55%	17%
51	Brentford	53.6	+4	< 1%	17%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	31%	24%	1.3%
49	Chelsea	52.4	+7	< 1%	11%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	48%	< 1%
49	Everton	52.3	+1	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	9%	< 1%
48	Fulham	51.1	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.1%	< 1%
48	Sunderland	50.0	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
46	Newcastle	49.1	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Leeds	46.7	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Crystal Palace	46.4	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Forest	45.5	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Tottenham	40.4	-10	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	38.4	-21	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Burnley	22.9	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	20.4	-42	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Most likely combo of teams in CL

46%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
30%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
15%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.4%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Man City, Man United
1.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

81%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
19%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves

 

 

 

 

PL: Spurs host Leeds in key match

A win for Spurs would that they are likely (>95%) surviving the relegation scare. With a draw the probability is down to 81% and with a loss they have 71%. Leeds are mathematically safe after West Ham's loss against Arsenal.

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Tottenham vs Leeds (14.8%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
West Ham	3.6%	19%	29%
Tottenham	96.4%	81%	71%

	West Ham			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.2%	4.2%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.2%	< 1%	-
44	< 1%	< 1%	-	13%	9%	100%
43	< 1%	< 1%	-	30%	17%	100%
42	9%	9%	64%	36%	6%	100%
41	9%	< 1%	-	58%	21%	91%
40	24%	14%	23%	77%	19%	91%
39	56%	32%	17%	84%	6%	76%
38	61%	5%	6%	94%	11%	44%
37	82%	21%	< 1%	100%	6%	39%
36	100%	18%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
35	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
79	Arsenal	83.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
74	Man City	79.6	+42	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
65	Man United	68.1	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Liverpool	62.2	+13	< 1%	100%	99.85%	96.6%	69%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	96.7%
59	Aston Villa	61.3	+3	< 1%	100%	99.24%	90%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	96.8%
55	Bournemouth	57.5	+4	< 1%	91%	63%	10%	< 1%	< 1%	9%	54%	34%
53	Brighton	55.8	+10	< 1%	75%	33%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	55%	17%
51	Brentford	53.6	+4	< 1%	17%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	31%	24%	1.3%
49	Chelsea	52.4	+7	< 1%	11%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	48%	< 1%
49	Everton	52.3	+1	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	9%	< 1%
48	Fulham	51.1	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.2%	< 1%
48	Sunderland	50.0	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
46	Newcastle	49.1	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Leeds	46.9	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Crystal Palace	46.5	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Forest	45.5	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
37	Tottenham	41.0	-9	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	38.4	-21	85%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Burnley	22.9	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	20.4	-42	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Most likely combo of teams in CL

46%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
30%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
15%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.4%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Man City, Man United
1.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

85%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
15%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves

 

 

PL: The Hammers versus the Gunners

A crucial match both for the top and bottom today. Arsenal need to win to keep their advantage, while West Ham need points in their chase for a new contract.

Aston Villa have the chance to practically secure a top-5 and thereby a place in CL next season. Everton are chasing points against a Palace in their chase for a place in Europe, while Newcastle have to beat Forest to keep their European dreams alive. 

Important matches for title race
West Ham vs Arsenal (14.5%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
Arsenal	60%	73%	91%
Man City	40%	27%	9%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Arsenal (13.7%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
West Ham	50%	22%	15%
Tottenham	51%	78%	85%

 

 

Important matches for CL race
Burnley vs Aston Villa (5.4%)	Home Win (26%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (51%)
Bournemouth	40%	34%	21%
Aston Villa	93%	96.8%	99.3%
Brighton	19%	17%	10%

 

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Crystal Palace vs Everton (8.5%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Everton	2.8%	8%	26%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Crystal Palace vs Everton (13.6%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Everton	12%	23%	51%
Brentford	57%	52%	43%
Brighton	91%	90%	85%
Forest vs Newcastle (4%)	Home Win (48%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (28%)
Newcastle	< 1%	1.5%	10%

La Liga clinches extra CL spot

We have the following finals

Champions League: Arsenal - PSG

Europa League: Aston Villa - Freiburg

Conference League: Crystal Palace - Rayo Vallecano

 

Premier League and La Liga have secured an extra spot in next season's Champions League.

Which league gets the extra CL spot

Premier League get one of the extra CL spots. The other one goes to Portugal, Spain or Germany and it's an extremely race. Portugal and Spain need to have a team in the finals to have a chance, which means that Portugal need that Braga win their tie against Freiburg, while Spain need that Rayo Vallecano win advance past Strasbourg. Germany's chances are slim but not zero if Freiburg are knocked out tonight against Braga.

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	20.01	19.78	20.06
POR	34%	15.49	15.2	15.8
ESP	34%	15.63	15.5	15.81
GER	32%	15.58	15.36	15.79

Number of finalists from GER; 431 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	61%	39%
Chance if	4.1%	75%

Number of finalists from ESP; 369 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	43%	57%
Chance if	< 1%	60%

Number of finalists from POR; 328 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	39%	61%
Chance if	< 1%	56%

 

PL: City slip at Everton

City came back after 1-3 deficit and scored in the last minute to save an important point in title race. City now win 13% of the simulations; they win 60% if they win remaining matches, 22% if they take 10 points in the last four matches.

Forest won against Chelsea and are thus practically secure from relegation. Mathematically they need four more points to clinch a new contract.

Everton lost two points in the race to Europe and now have 23% chance to reach EL or Conference League. They likely need to take 6 or 7 points to reach that ticket to Europe.

 

Important matches for title race
West Ham vs Arsenal (10.7%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
Man City	29%	18%	6%
Arsenal	71%	82%	94%
Man City vs Brentford (7%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Arsenal	82%	95%	97.3%
Man City	18%	5%	2.7%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	28%	28%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
84	28%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
83	52%	24%	95.1%	10%	10%	60%
82	75%	22%	90%	10%	< 1%	-
81	81%	6%	82%	26%	16%	22%
80	92%	11%	66%	43%	17%	14%
79	97.8%	5%	51%	52%	9%	6%
78	98.9%	1.1%	37%	70%	19%	1.8%
77	99.78%	< 1%	22%	82%	12%	< 1%
76	100%	< 1%	13%	88%	6%	< 1%
75	100%	< 1%	-	95.2%	7%	< 1%
74	100%	< 1%	-	98.1%	2.9%	< 1%
73	100%	< 1%	-	99.13%	1.1%	< 1%
72	100%	< 1%	-	99.82%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Tottenham vs Leeds (15.5%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Tottenham	91%	71%	61%
West Ham	10%	29%	39%
West Ham vs Arsenal (13.7%)	Home Win (19%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (60%)
West Ham	50%	22%	15%
Tottenham	51%	78%	85%

	West Ham			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	4.2%	4.2%	100%
45	1.8%	1.8%	98.9%	4.2%	< 1%	-
44	1.8%	< 1%	-	13%	9%	99.4%
43	7%	4.8%	73%	30%	17%	98.8%
42	18%	12%	64%	36%	6%	94%
41	22%	4.0%	42%	58%	22%	82%
40	42%	19%	23%	77%	19%	77%
39	66%	24%	16%	84%	7%	58%
38	73%	7%	6%	94%	11%	34%
37	89%	16%	< 1%	100%	6%	27%
36	100%	11%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
35	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Fulham vs Bournemouth (6.6%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bournemouth	4.4%	8%	20%
Fulham	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	98.3%	97.5%	93%
Brighton	10%	10%	6%
Burnley vs Aston Villa (4.4%)	Home Win (26%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (51%)
Aston Villa	91%	96.2%	99.52%
Bournemouth	16%	11%	8%
Brighton	12%	9%	6%
Brentford	6%	4.5%	3.2%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Fulham vs Bournemouth (23.2%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bournemouth	37%	55%	84%
Fulham	26%	7%	< 1%
Man City vs Brentford (11.3%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Brentford	26%	44%	72%
Bournemouth	60%	55%	46%
Brighton	57%	52%	43%
Brighton vs Wolves (11.1%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Brighton	65%	36%	21%
Brentford	34%	42%	47%
Bournemouth	53%	62%	65%
Crystal Palace vs Everton (8.8%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Everton	2.5%	9%	27%

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Fulham vs Bournemouth (26.1%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Bournemouth	57%	77%	96.4%
Fulham	44%	16%	5%
Crystal Palace vs Everton (13.3%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Everton	9%	21%	49%
Brighton vs Wolves (11.6%)	Home Win (68%)	Draw (18%)	Away Win (14%)
Brighton	84%	58%	40%
Brentford	58%	64%	69%
Man City vs Brentford (9.8%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Brentford	50%	68%	91%
Brighton	76%	72%	67%
Liverpool vs Chelsea (5.7%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Chelsea	49%	57%	78%
Brentford	63%	60%	53%
Everton	25%	23%	18%
Brighton	76%	73%	69%

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
76	Arsenal	82.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	87%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
71	Man City	78.7	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	13%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
64	Man United	68.8	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	99.88%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Liverpool	63.2	+14	< 1%	>99.99%	99.84%	98.3%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	98.3%
58	Aston Villa	62.1	+4	< 1%	99.99%	99.60%	95%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	96.5%
52	Bournemouth	55.7	+2	< 1%	61%	36%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	46%	10%
50	Brighton	55.0	+8	< 1%	58%	32%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	45%	9%
51	Brentford	54.3	+6	< 1%	40%	18%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	33%	4.2%
48	Fulham	52.6	-4	< 1%	13%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	12%	1.1%
48	Everton	52.4	+0	< 1%	11%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	11%	< 1%
48	Chelsea	52.3	+6	< 1%	15%	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	10%	46%	< 1%
47	Sunderland	50.0	-11	< 1%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	1.4%	< 1%
45	Newcastle	49.2	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	47.1	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	62%	< 1%
43	Leeds	46.9	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
42	Forest	46.2	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	35%
37	Tottenham	41.0	-9	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	39.2	-21	77%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	22.9	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	21.0	-40	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Most likely combo of teams in CL

41%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
33%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
8%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.0%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

77%	Burnley, West Ham, Wolves
23%	Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves