The African playoff was drawn yesterday giving the following matches:

Ivory Coast vs Senegal
Ethiopia vs Nigeria
Tunisia vs Cameroon
Ghana vs Egypt
Burkina Faso vs Algeria

The table below reflects the chances after the African draw. In addition the FIFA ranking has been updated, which determines the seeding of the playoff in Europe.

Country	Qual	Sep-1	Apr-1	Champ	Sep-1	Apr-1
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	34.6	+9.0	+9.0
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.08	-0.3	-0.3
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.013	-0.2	-0.2
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.028	-0.1	-0.1
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.022	+0.0	+0.0
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.0	9.6	+1.6	+1.6
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+0.0	4.4	-0.4	-0.4
United States	100	+0.7	+15.6	0.46	+0.4	+0.4
Italy	100	+2.0	+4.6	3.22	+1.4	+1.4
Costa Rica	100	+11.6	+52.4	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Colombia	>99.9999	+0.4	+0.5	2.11	+0.7	+0.7
Spain	99.88	+0.3	+0.3	21.5	-8.5	-8.6
Switzerland	99.88	+1.9	+5.1	0.66	+0.4	+0.4
Germany	99.87	+0.0	+0.6	11.1	-2.0	-1.9
Belgium	99.27	+28.6	+48.7	1.02	+0.9	+0.9
Chile	98.91	+5.4	+22.5	0.67	+0.4	+0.4
Uruguay	94	+50.9	+64.3	2.41	+2.2	+2.3
Ecuador	93.2	-4.2	-5.6	0.28	-0.3	-0.3
Russia	93	+1.5	-6.0	0.69	-0.5	-0.6
Nigeria	91.5	+29.1	+39.7	0.04	+0.0	+0.0
England	90.4	-3.2	-2.8	2.79	-1.7	-1.7
Honduras	89.1	+40.3	+32.3	0.006	+0.0	-0.0
Bosnia and Herzegov	88.4	+12.9	+18.3	0.18	+0.1	+0.1
Ivory Coast	85.5	-4.3	-2.8	0.2	-0.5	-0.5
Portugal	77.5	-3.9	+3.9	1.41	-0.8	-0.6
Greece	66.8	-0.9	-0.9	0.29	+0.1	+0.1
Croatia	66	-10.7	-22.7	0.66	-0.1	-0.2
Cameroon	58.2	+32.9	+35.3	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Sweden	57	+7.0	-8.5	0.65	+0.1	-0.0
Ukraine	56.8	+28.4	+45.5	0.2	+0.2	+0.2
Algeria	54.2	+19.8	+37.6	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
France	53.9	-14.4	-14.6	0.49	+0.0	+0.0
Egypt	50.8	-27.2	-23.7	0.017	-0.0	-0.0
Ghana	49.2	-11.0	+10.5	0.015	+0.0	+0.0
Mexico	48	-48.8	-48.9	0.04	-2.2	-2.3
Burkina Faso	45.8	+33.2	+40.9	0.0003	+0.0	+0.0
Tunisia	41.8	-22.9	-14.8	0.0002	-0.0	-0.0
New Zealand	31.8	-4.2	-4.6	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Panama	31	+3.2	-24.9	0.012	+0.0	+0.0
Romania	16.4	-8.5	-8.0	0.008	-0.0	-0.0
Senegal	14.5	-6.6	-2.8	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Jordan	13	+2.9	-5.0	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Ethiopia	8.5	-3.2	+4.8	0	+0.0	+0.0
Bulgaria	7.9	-0.6	+2.8	0.002	+0.0	+0.0
Hungary	4.8	-1.8	-1.6	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Iceland	4.5	+3.6	+2.2	0	+0.0	+0.0
Denmark	4.14	+3.3	-7.7	0.005	+0.0	-0.0
Montenegro	3.22	-2.2	-14.7	0.0002	+0.0	-0.0
Norway	2.82	-10.2	-16.6	0.001	-0.0	-0.0
Austria	2.77	+1.0	+2.4	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Turkey	2.75	+2.1	+2.1	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Slovenia	1.33	+0.6	+1.1	0.0003	+0.0	+0.0
Venezuela	0.88	-25.3	-54.2	0.0004	-0.0	-0.0
Czechia	0.33	-17.8	-13.2	0.0004	-0.0	-0.0
Poland	0.28	-2.8	-5.2	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0
Albania	0.05	-1.0	-1.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Jamaica	0.04	-2.7	-22.0	0	+0.0	-0.0
Israel	0.024	-1.8	-1.8	0	-0.0	+0.0
Armenia	0.012	-0.0	+0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Ireland	0.0001	-7.1	-3.6	0	-0.0	-0.0

Italy, Netherlands, Costa Rica, United States, Argentina, and Colombia all qualified yesterday. Congratulations! [Correction: Colombia is theoretically not qualified. They may miss it if: 1) Colombia lose remaining two matches AND 2) Ecuador and Uruguay draw AND 3) Uruguay beat Argentina AND 4) Ecuador beat Chile. In addition Colombia have to lose the goal difference advantage they've got against Uruguay (13) and Uruguay (9).]

In Asia, Uzbekistan and Jordan played 1-1, same result as in Jordan last Friday. After extra time and penalties Jordan managed to win and thereby qualified for the intercontinental playoff against 5th team in South America, likely Uruguay or Ecuador.

I've updated the ELO ratings that are used to determine teams strength (thanks Niclas for the feedback).

Country	Qual	Sep-01	Apr-01	Champ	Sep-01	Apr-01
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	33.8	+8.2	+8.2
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.07	-0.3	-0.3
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.013	-0.2	-0.2
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.028	-0.1	-0.1
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.02	+0.0	+0.0
Argentina	100	+0.0	+0.0	8.2	+0.2	+0.2
Netherlands	100	+0.0	+0.0	6.2	+1.4	+1.4
Colombia	100	+0.4	+0.5	3.13	+1.7	+1.7
United States	100	+0.7	+15.6	0.33	+0.2	+0.2
Italy	100	+2.0	+4.6	3.02	+1.2	+1.2
Costa Rica	100	+11.6	+52.4	0.05	+0.0	+0.0
Spain	99.89	+0.3	+0.3	22.7	-7.3	-7.4
Switzerland	99.89	+1.9	+5.1	0.39	+0.2	+0.1
Germany	99.87	+0.0	+0.6	11.1	-2.0	-1.9
Belgium	98.89	+28.2	+48.3	0.77	+0.7	+0.7
Chile	98.86	+5.4	+22.5	0.63	+0.3	+0.4
Ecuador	94.5	-2.9	-4.3	0.36	-0.2	-0.2
Uruguay	93.1	+50.0	+63.4	0.9	+0.7	+0.8
Russia	92.8	+1.3	-6.2	0.6	-0.6	-0.7
England	90.7	-2.9	-2.5	3.47	-1.0	-1.0
Honduras	88.8	+40.0	+32.0	0.007	+0.0	-0.0
Ivory Coast	84.1	-5.7	-4.2	0.21	-0.5	-0.5
Bosnia and Herzegov	83.1	+7.6	+13.0	0.12	+0.1	+0.1
Portugal	79.3	-2.1	+5.7	1.6	-0.6	-0.4
Nigeria	75.3	+12.9	+23.5	0.034	+0.0	+0.0
Ghana	74.3	+14.1	+35.6	0.023	+0.0	+0.0
Egypt	72.2	-5.8	-2.3	0.02	-0.0	-0.0
Greece	70.3	+2.6	+2.6	0.28	+0.1	+0.1
Croatia	66.7	-10.0	-22.0	0.58	-0.1	-0.3
France	63	-5.3	-5.5	0.42	-0.1	-0.1
Burkina Faso	56.5	+43.9	+51.6	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Ukraine	52	+23.6	+40.7	0.18	+0.2	+0.2
Mexico	50.7	-46.1	-46.2	0.06	-2.2	-2.2
Sweden	50	+0.0	-15.5	0.54	+0.0	-0.1
Algeria	32.3	-2.1	+15.7	0.0004	+0.0	+0.0
Cameroon	32.1	+6.8	+9.2	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Senegal	31.8	+10.7	+14.5	0.0002	+0.0	+0.0
New Zealand	30.9	-5.1	-5.5	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Panama	29.6	+1.8	-26.3	0.01	+0.0	+0.0
Tunisia	26.8	-37.9	-29.8	0	-0.0	-0.0
Romania	21.9	-3.0	-2.5	0.027	-0.0	+0.0
Ethiopia	14.5	+2.8	+10.8	0	+0.0	+0.0
Jordan	12.7	+2.6	-5.3	0	+0.0	-0.0
Bulgaria	7.3	-1.2	+2.2	0.002	+0.0	+0.0
Norway	4.5	-8.5	-14.9	0.003	-0.0	-0.0
Hungary	4.05	-2.5	-2.4	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Denmark	3.86	+3.0	-7.9	0.003	+0.0	-0.0
Iceland	3.35	+2.5	+1.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Montenegro	3.08	-2.3	-14.8	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Austria	2.23	+0.5	+1.8	0.0003	+0.0	+0.0
Turkey	1.39	+0.8	+0.8	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0
Slovenia	1.07	+0.3	+0.8	0	+0.0	+0.0
Venezuela	0.87	-25.3	-54.2	0.0002	-0.0	-0.0
Czechia	0.42	-17.7	-13.1	0.001	-0.0	-0.0
Poland	0.27	-2.8	-5.2	0	-0.0	-0.0
Albania	0.08	-0.9	-1.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Jamaica	0.038	-2.7	-22.0	0	+0.0	-0.0
Israel	0.02	-1.8	-1.8	0	-0.0	+0.0
Armenia	0.018	-0.0	+0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Ireland	0.0001	-7.1	-3.6	0	-0.0	-0.0

 Table shows probability that a team will qualify for the playoff if they come second in their group.  Last column shows probability that team come second. The 9th runner up is not playing the playoff, and it seems likely that the 9th runner up will be a team from either group E or B.

Group	Country	Playoff	Second
E	Switzerland	100	0.20
C	Germany	100	1.01
I	Spain	100	1.36
A	Belgium	100	2.44
F	Russia	100	20.32
G	Bosnia and Herzegovina	100	25.95
G	Greece	100	74.04
I	France	100	98.63
F	Portugal	99.995	79.58
C	Sweden	99.90	86.60
H	England	99.85	18.09
H	Poland	99.45	0.773
H	Ukraine	99.38	74.95
H	Montenegro	98.72	6.17
E	Iceland	98.45	40.24
A	Croatia	98.25	97.55
C	Austria	97.97	12.37
F	Israel	97.79	0.090
D	Romania	95.71	70.02
D	Turkey	93.87	7.26
D	Hungary	80.91	22.70
B	Armenia	72.54	0.225
C	Ireland	66.66	0.0003
B	Bulgaria	54.71	59.46
E	Norway	42.73	38.71
B	Denmark	42.17	31.33
E	Slovenia	32.75	18.01
E	Albania	27.89	2.81
B	Czechia	15.66	8.97

Table shows probability that a team will be seeded in the playoff if they qualify for the playoff. Last column shows probability that team qualify for playoff.

Rank	Group	Country	Seeded	Playoff
1	I	Spain	100	1.36
2	C	Germany	100	1.01
6	H	England	100	18.06
7	F	Portugal	100	79.57
9	F	Russia	100	20.32
10	A	Croatia	99.997	95.85
11	G	Greece	99.59	74.04
13	E	Switzerland	85.6	0.20
17	I	France	86.4	98.63
19	C	Sweden	23.9	86.52
20	A	Belgium	29.4	2.44
23	B	Denmark	3.62	13.21
24	E	Norway	2.86	16.54
26	G	Bosnia and Herzegovina	8.17	25.95
29	B	Czechia	0.014	1.40
31	H	Montenegro	0.127	6.100
32	D	Hungary	0.066	18.37
33	D	Romania	0.128	67.02
40	D	Turkey	0.108	6.817
41	C	Ireland	0	0.0002
44	H	Ukraine	0	74.494
47	E	Slovenia	0	5.902
50	B	Bulgaria	0	32.540
56	H	Poland	0	0.769
63	E	Albania	0	0.784
68	C	Austria	0	12.126
75	B	Armenia	0	0.163
76	F	Israel	0	0.088
89	E	Iceland	0	39.624

In Africa the last round in the group stage was played last weekend and the 10 group winners will next play play-off to decide which five countries that get tickets to Brazil. In group A, Ethiopia won the group after coming back from 0-1 in half time against CAR and winning finally with 2-1. In group B, Cape Verde won against Tunisia with 2-0 (goal by Platini!) and thereby also the group. In group D Ghana won against Zambia and thus also the group. In group E Burkina Faso won against Gabon and since Congo only drew against Niger, Burkina Faso will play in play-off. In group F Nigeria won against Malawi and thus also the group. In group I Cameroon won against Libya and thus also the group. In group J Senegal won against Uganda and thus also the group.

In Asia Jordan and Uzbekistan played 1-1 in Jordan, which means 0-0 at home is sufficient for Uzbekistan in order to advance to the next round (playoff against 5th South American country).

In North (and Central) America both favourites, Mexico and USA, lost against Honduras and Costa Rica, respectively. Mexico now falling down to fourth place behind Honduras.

In South America, Chile and Uruguay won their very important games. Chile very close to cash in tickets while Uruguay still struggling on 5th place but got some air down to Venezuela and Peru which lost these two important games.

In Europe, Belgium almost qualified as Serbia managed to draw against Croatia and Belgium is now 5pts ahead with two matches left. Greece got some hope in group G when Slovakia beat the group leader Bosnia and Herzegovina, which allowed Greece to climb up to the same points as Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Please see below for a more detailed analysis of the European groups and especially the question of which teams are risking to become the 9th runner-up and thereby missing the playoff.

As usual this table is based on 1,000,000 simulations and it shows the estimated probabilities that a team will qualify for the World Cup and the that they will win the World Cup. Columns 3,4,6, and 7 show how the chances have changed since Sep 1st and Apr 1st.

Country	Qual	Sep-01	Apr-01	Champ	Sep-01	Apr-01
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	25.6	+0.0	+0.0
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.38	+0.0	+0.0
South Korea	100	+0.0	+1.8	0.26	+0.0	+0.0
Australia	100	+0.0	+21.4	0.13	-0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+0.0	+58.5	0.017	-0.0	+0.0
Argentina	99.9999	+0.0	+0.0	8	+0.0	+0.0
Colombia	99.998	+0.4	+0.5	1.45	+0.0	+0.0
Netherlands	99.992	+0.0	+0.0	4.7	-0.1	-0.1
Spain	99.97	+0.4	+0.4	30.2	+0.2	+0.1
Germany	99.89	+0.0	+0.6	13.1	+0.0	+0.1
Italy	99.76	+1.7	+4.4	1.87	+0.0	+0.0
Chile	98.81	+5.3	+22.4	0.29	+0.0	+0.1
Belgium	97.9	+27.2	+47.3	0.14	+0.0	+0.1
United States	97.62	-1.7	+13.2	0.08	-0.0	+0.0
Ecuador	97.15	-0.2	-1.6	0.59	-0.0	-0.0
Costa Rica	95.93	+7.5	+48.3	0.009	+0.0	+0.0
Switzerland	95.2	-2.8	+0.4	0.24	+0.0	-0.0
England	94.5	+0.9	+1.3	4.5	+0.0	+0.0
Russia	91.5	+0.0	-7.5	1.14	-0.0	-0.2
Ivory Coast	89.6	-0.2	+1.3	0.66	-0.0	-0.0
Mexico	87.8	-9.0	-9.1	2.02	-0.3	-0.3
Portugal	83.4	+2.0	+9.8	2.21	+0.0	+0.2
Greece	82.7	+15.0	+15.0	0.18	+0.0	+0.0
Honduras	78.8	+30.0	+22.0	0.009	+0.0	+0.0
Egypt	77.7	-0.3	+3.2	0.021	-0.0	-0.0
Ghana	73.7	+13.5	+35.0	0.01	+0.0	+0.0
Uruguay	71.9	+28.8	+42.2	0.36	+0.1	+0.2
Croatia	70.3	-6.4	-18.4	0.64	-0.1	-0.2
Nigeria	68.2	+5.8	+16.4	0.002	-0.0	-0.0
France	66.5	-1.8	-2.0	0.47	-0.0	-0.0
Tunisia	64.4	-0.3	+7.8	0.002	+0.0	+0.0
Sweden	57.4	+7.4	-8.1	0.56	+0.1	-0.1
Bosnia and Herzegov	55.7	-19.8	-14.4	0.024	-0.0	-0.0
Cameroon	35.8	+10.5	+12.9	0.0002	+0.0	-0.0
Ukraine	35	+6.6	+23.7	0.018	+0.0	+0.0
Algeria	32.9	-1.5	+16.3	0.0002	+0.0	+0.0
Romania	30.1	+5.2	+5.7	0.031	+0.0	+0.0
Senegal	27.7	+6.6	+10.4	0	+0.0	+0.0
New Zealand	27.6	-8.4	-8.8	0.0003	+0.0	-0.0
Burkina Faso	18.4	+5.8	+13.5	0	+0.0	+0.0
Norway	17.4	+4.4	-2.0	0.007	+0.0	-0.0
Panama	11.8	-16.0	-44.1	0.002	-0.0	-0.0
Uzbekistan	11.6	-2.2	-63.0	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0
Ethiopia	11.5	-0.2	+7.8	0	+0.0	+0.0
Venezuela	9.5	-16.7	-45.6	0.005	-0.0	-0.0
Jordan	8.4	-1.7	-9.6	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Bulgaria	4.8	-3.7	-0.3	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0
Denmark	4.6	+3.7	-7.2	0.006	+0.0	-0.0
Montenegro	3.38	-2.0	-14.5	0.0004	+0.0	-0.0
Peru	2.54	-13.7	-6.3	0.001	-0.0	-0.0
Czechia	2.23	-15.9	-11.3	0.003	-0.0	-0.0
Iceland	1.65	+0.8	-0.6	0	+0.0	+0.0
Slovenia	1.12	+0.4	+0.9	0	+0.0	+0.0
Austria	0.97	-0.8	+0.6	0	+0.0	+0.0
Hungary	0.92	-5.7	-5.5	0.0003	-0.0	-0.0
Turkey	0.78	+0.2	+0.2	0.0004	+0.0	-0.0
Albania	0.63	-0.4	-0.5	0	+0.0	+0.0
Jamaica	0.5	-2.3	-21.5	0	+0.0	-0.0
Ireland	0.49	-6.6	-3.1	0.0002	-0.0	-0.0
Poland	0.39	-2.7	-5.1	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0
Israel	0.35	-1.5	-1.5	0	-0.0	+0.0
Slovakia	0.31	+0.1	-0.7	0	+0.0	-0.0
Armenia	0.17	+0.2	+0.2	0	+0.0	+0.0
Finland	0.08	-0.2	-0.2	0	+0.0	+0.0
Paraguay	0.07	+0.0	-0.6	0	-0.0	-0.0
Cyprus	0.0002	-0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Estonia	0.0002	-0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0

In Europe the nine group winners qualify directly and eight best runner-ups will play against each other to decide the last 4 countries. The last runner-up will, in other words, not get this chance in the playoff. To rank the runner-ups they are ranked with respect to their points, goal difference, etc. As some groups have 6 teams and one has 5 teams, the matches against 6th team in the group is ignored for teams playing in a group with six teams. The table below shows two interesting probabilities for all teams. Column 4 shows the probability that the team will get 2nd in the group. Column 3 shows the probability they will get to the playoff if they get 2nd in the group.

Group	Country	Playoff	2nd
D	Netherlands	100	0.025
I	Spain	100	0.530
C	Germany	100	0.957
A	Belgium	100	4.054
G	Bosnia and Herzegovina	99.998	60.495
F	Portugal	99.997	70.276
G	Slovakia	99.991	1.111
G	Greece	99.979	38.393
F	Russia	99.968	29.236
I	France	99.717	98.972
H	England	99.694	14.264
C	Sweden	99.024	90.987
A	Croatia	98.904	95.945
D	Romania	98.517	91.694
H	Ukraine	98.451	69.612
H	Poland	97.548	1.460
E	Switzerland	97.299	7.868
F	Israel	93.927	0.487
E	Iceland	93.208	17.189
I	Finland	92.439	0.497
C	Austria	92.004	6.161
D	Turkey	90.130	3.113
H	Montenegro	90.129	14.662
C	Ireland	83.505	1.893
D	Hungary	82.286	5.163
B	Armenia	74.413	2.297
B	Italy	70.597	0.331
E	Norway	58.186	60.457
I	Georgia	50.000	0.0002
E	Albania	48.626	6.121
B	Bulgaria	47.477	48.964
B	Denmark	41.911	28.440
E	Slovenia	39.191	8.346
B	Czechia	30.451	19.966
E	Cyprus	29.518	0.016
D	Estonia	27.500	0.004

The playoff in Europe will be seeded in such a way that the four best teams will play against the four not as good teams. This seeding is decided by the FIFA ranking and whether a country is seeded (as one of the better team) thus depends on which other teams that are qualified for playoff. The table below shows two probabilities. Column 5 shows the probabilities that a team will qualify for playoff and column 4 shows the probability that they will be seeded if they qualify for playoff.

Rank	Group	Country	Seeded	Playoff
1	I	Spain	100	0.5302
2	C	Germany	100	0.9570
4	B	Italy	100	0.2341
6	H	England	100	14.2209
7	F	Portugal	100	70.2746
8	D	Netherlands	100	0.0250
9	F	Russia	100	29.2272
10	A	Croatia	99.9994	94.8940
11	G	Greece	99.7572	38.3857
13	E	Switzerland	94.3283	7.6555
17	I	France	91.3758	98.6931
19	C	Sweden	51.4524	90.0999
20	A	Belgium	52.9867	4.0546
23	B	Denmark	7.2972	11.9197
24	E	Norway	5.7377	35.1779
26	G	Bosnia and Herzegovina	4.0429	60.4943
29	B	Czechia	0.2187	6.0802
31	H	Montenegro	0.0893	13.2155
32	D	Hungary	0.0730	4.2487
33	D	Romania	0.0778	90.3351
40	D	Turkey	0.0748	2.8063
41	C	Ireland	0.0063	1.5811
44	G	Slovakia	0.0450	1.1114
44	H	Ukraine	0.0007	68.5348
47	E	Slovenia	0	3.2712
50	B	Bulgaria	0	23.2470
56	H	Poland	0	1.4244
63	E	Albania	0	2.9765
68	C	Austria	0	5.6692
72	I	Georgia	0	0.0001
75	B	Armenia	0	1.7098
76	F	Israel	0	0.4578
83	D	Estonia	0	0.0011
84	I	Finland	0	0.4597
89	E	Iceland	0	16.0222
131	E	Cyprus	0	0.0049

A few important matches this Friday evening in Europe. In Group B leader Italy
(14p) hosts runner up Bulgaria (10p). In Group C leader Germany (16p)
hosts runner up Austria (11p). In that group Ireland (11p) also plays
Sweden (11p). In Group D Hungary (11p) plays Romania (10p) likely to
decide who is going to be 2nd and 3rd in that group.

In Asia Jordan play Uzbekistan is first round of the Asian playoff.

On Saturday the African groups are decided. Group winners will play
play-off in November. Here is a summary of the 10 groups:

Group A: Ethiopia will win the group if, they win their last match against Central African Republic.
Group B is between Tunisia and Cape Verde who meet in the last round. Tunisia
will win group if they at least draw.
Group C is already won by Ivory Coast.
Group D is between Ghana and Zambia who meet in the last
round. Ghana need at least a draw to win the group.
Group E is between Congo, Burkina Faso and Gabon. Congo likely to win the group as they play Niger in last round and a win suffices.
Group F is between Malawi and Nigera. They meet in the last round and advantage Nigeria who only need a draw.
Group G is already won by Egypt.
Group H is already won by Algeria.
Group I is between Cameroon and Libya who meet in the last
round. Advantage Cameroon who only need a draw.
Group J is between Senegal and Uganda who play in the last round. Advantage Senegal who win the group in case of a draw.

In South America we have

4. Chile         21p  (13)
--------------------------------------
5. Uruguay   16p  (12)
--------------------------------------
6. Venezuela 16p  (13)
7. Peru          14p  (12)

where the 4th qualifies and the 5th plays play-off against an Asian
team. Two important matches tonight when Chile play Venezuela and Peru play Uruguay. Every team will play 16 matches.

In the only match in August Russia lost against Northern Ireland and lost its golden seat in Group F. Russia is still in the lead in the sense that if they win remaining four games, they'll win the group. But they cannot afford to lose any more points unless both Israel and Portugal lose points too. Key games will be Israel's games against Russia (Sep 10) and Portugal (Oct 11).

Country Pld Pts
Portugal  7    14
Russia    6    12
Israel      6    11

Country	Qualify	Aug-01	Mar-01	Champ	Aug-01	Mar-01
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	25.6	+0.0	+0.0
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.3	0.38	+0.0	-0.0
South Korea	100	+0.0	+4.9	0.25	+0.0	+0.0
Australia	100	+0.0	+5.1	0.14	+0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+0.0	+25.1	0.018	+0.0	+0.0
Argentina	99.999	-0.0	+0.0	8	+0.0	+0.0
Netherlands	99.992	+0.0	+0.6	4.8	+0.0	+0.0
Germany	99.87	-0.0	+1.3	13.1	+0.0	+0.1
Colombia	99.64	+0.0	+0.2	1.41	-0.0	-0.0
Spain	99.57	+0.0	+0.3	30	-0.1	+0.0
United States	99.35	+0.0	+25.3	0.09	+0.0	+0.0
Italy	98.02	+0.0	+3.3	1.84	-0.0	+0.0
Switzerland	97.99	-0.0	+5.4	0.24	+0.0	+0.0
Ecuador	97.39	+0.0	+0.5	0.6	-0.0	+0.0
Mexico	96.85	-0.0	-1.6	2.29	+0.0	+0.0
England	93.6	+0.0	-2.7	4.5	+0.0	-0.1
Chile	93.5	+0.0	+22.1	0.29	+0.0	+0.1
Russia	91.5	-6.9	-6.0	1.18	-0.1	-0.1
Ivory Coast	89.8	+0.1	+4.8	0.67	+0.0	+0.0
Costa Rica	88.4	-0.1	+45.2	0.006	-0.0	+0.0
Portugal	81.4	+4.6	+4.9	2.16	+0.2	+0.1
Egypt	78	+0.1	+6.4	0.025	+0.0	+0.0
Croatia	76.7	+0.1	-4.7	0.72	+0.0	-0.0
Bosnia and Herzegov	75.5	+0.1	+27.4	0.035	+0.0	+0.0
Belgium	70.7	+0.1	+26.0	0.1	+0.0	+0.0
France	68.3	+0.0	-1.5	0.49	+0.0	-0.0
Greece	67.7	+0.2	-13.9	0.15	+0.0	-0.0
Tunisia	64.7	+0.0	+9.1	0.002	+0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	62.4	+0.0	+2.6	0.003	+0.0	+0.0
Ghana	60.2	+0.1	+35.6	0.007	-0.0	+0.0
Sweden	50	-0.2	-16.5	0.51	-0.0	-0.2
Honduras	48.8	+0.0	-16.8	0.004	-0.0	-0.0
Uruguay	43.1	+0.2	-16.8	0.21	-0.0	-0.1
New Zealand	36	+0.1	+0.8	0.0003	-0.0	-0.0
Algeria	34.4	+0.1	+17.9	0.0002	+0.0	+0.0
Ukraine	28.4	+0.3	+24.1	0.014	+0.0	+0.0
Panama	27.8	+0.0	-16.6	0.006	+0.0	+0.0
Venezuela	26.2	-0.1	-11.6	0.01	-0.0	-0.0
Cameroon	25.3	+0.0	+7.7	0.0002	-0.0	-0.0
Romania	24.9	+0.3	-1.7	0.03	+0.0	-0.0
Senegal	21.1	-0.1	+4.5	0	+0.0	-0.0
Czechia	18.1	+0.0	-6.1	0.021	-0.0	-0.0
Peru	16.2	+0.0	+11.0	0.004	-0.0	+0.0
Uzbekistan	13.8	+0.0	-30.3	0.0003	+0.0	-0.0
Norway	13	+0.2	-19.1	0.006	+0.0	-0.0
Burkina Faso	12.6	+0.0	+10.3	0	+0.0	+0.0
Zambia	12	-0.1	-23.9	0.0002	+0.0	-0.0
Ethiopia	11.7	-0.1	+8.5	0	+0.0	+0.0
Libya	11.6	+0.0	-4.7	0	+0.0	-0.0
Jordan	10.1	+0.0	+8.8	0	-0.0	-0.0
Bulgaria	8.5	+0.1	+6.0	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Gabon	8.4	+0.0	-9.8	0	+0.0	+0.0
Ireland	7.1	+0.1	+2.3	0.004	+0.0	+0.0
Uganda	6.7	-0.1	-1.3	0	+0.0	+0.0
Hungary	6.6	+0.1	+0.2	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Serbia	5.4	+0.0	-4.7	0.001	+0.0	-0.0
Montenegro	5.4	+0.1	-5.6	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0
Poland	3.06	-0.0	-7.9	0.001	+0.0	-0.0
Jamaica	2.76	-0.0	-35.9	0	-0.0	-0.0
Israel	1.85	+0.7	+0.6	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Austria	1.74	+0.0	+1.6	0	+0.0	+0.0
Malawi	1.25	+0.0	+0.4	0	+0.0	+0.0
Albania	1.01	-0.0	+0.8	0	+0.0	+0.0
Iceland	0.88	+0.0	+0.6	0	+0.0	+0.0
Denmark	0.85	-0.0	-11.1	0.002	+0.0	-0.0
Slovenia	0.76	+0.0	-0.2	0	+0.0	-0.0
Turkey	0.62	+0.0	-0.1	0.0002	-0.0	+0.0
Scotland	0.39	+0.0	-1.2	0	+0.0	+0.0
Finland	0.28	+0.0	+0.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Slovakia	0.16	+0.0	-2.3	0	+0.0	-0.0
Congo	0.06	+0.0	-2.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Wales	0.06	+0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Paraguay	0.037	+0.0	-1.9	0.0001	+0.0	-0.0
Armenia	0.02	+0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Bolivia	0.015	+0.0	-0.8	0	+0.0	+0.0
Lithuania	0.015	+0.0	-0.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
New Caledonia	0.005	+0.0	-0.5	0	+0.0	+0.0
Cyprus	0.003	-0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Macedonia	0.002	+0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Latvia	0.002	+0.0	-0.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Estonia	0.001	+0.0	+0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Northern Ireland	0.001	+0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0

Congratulations to Iran, South Korea, and Australia who qualified yesterday. In group A, the match between South Korea and Iran was goalless for long time, and when Qatar scored against Uzbekistan the outcome seemed clear. With half an hour to go Uzbekistan suddenly started to score against 2022 hosts Qatar. Equalizer became 1-2, which became 1-3, and with two goals in last five they turned around the result to a four goal win. That was exactly the result needed if it had been a draw in South Korea. Unfortunately, for Uzbekistan, Iran had scored a winner in 60th minute, which secured the qualification for them, and South Korea had the second place on better goal difference (+6 vs +5).

In group B, the Australia started the evening playing against Iraq. A win would secure the ticket to Brazil, whereas a draw or loss the outcome would depend on the result in Amman later on. With the rain bucketing down at Olympic Stadion in Sydney and so much in the game, the match became quite nervy, but in 82nd minuted sub Kennedy headed in the winner. With that result the game in Amman between Jordan and Oman became a head-on-head match in which Oman needed a draw to secure a spot in the playoff. In 57th minute Hayel scored the only goal, which knocked out Oman and gave Jordan a spot in the playoff where they will play against Uzbekistan. The winner of the playoff will play the fifth place in South America (currently Uruguay).

In North America, USA and Costa Rica won against Honduras and Panama, respectively.

Other note is that in Africa, Ethiopia admit they've played with ineligible player. Quite likely they will at least lose the three point from last week, but the case is still under investigation and the table below is based on current result.

Country	Qualify	June-01	Jan-01	Champ	Jun-01	Jan-01
Brazil	100	+0.0	+0.0	25.6	+0.0	-0.1
Japan	100	+0.0	+0.0	0.38	+0.0	+0.0
South Korea	100	+1.8	+2.6	0.25	+0.0	+0.0
Australia	100	+21.4	+9.6	0.14	+0.0	+0.0
Iran	100	+58.5	+55.1	0.015	+0.0	+0.0
Argentina	99.9999	+0.0	+0.0	8	+0.0	+0.0
Netherlands	99.991	+0.0	+0.6	4.8	+0.0	+0.0
Germany	99.88	+0.6	+1.4	13.1	+0.1	+0.1
Colombia	99.64	+0.2	+0.2	1.43	+0.0	+0.0
Spain	99.56	-0.0	+0.3	30.1	+0.0	+0.2
United States	99.34	+14.9	+16.8	0.09	+0.0	+0.0
Russia	98.41	-0.6	+0.8	1.27	-0.0	-0.0
Italy	98.02	+2.6	+3.3	1.86	+0.0	+0.1
Switzerland	98	+3.2	+5.5	0.24	-0.0	+0.0
Ecuador	97.37	-1.4	+0.6	0.61	+0.0	+0.0
Mexico	96.89	-0.0	-2.3	2.25	-0.0	-0.1
England	93.6	+0.4	-2.7	4.5	+0.0	-0.1
Chile	93.5	+17.1	+22.4	0.28	+0.1	+0.1
Ivory Coast	89.7	+1.4	+4.8	0.66	-0.0	+0.0
Costa Rica	88.5	+40.9	+44.6	0.008	+0.0	+0.0
Egypt	77.9	+3.4	+6.3	0.025	+0.0	+0.0
Portugal	76.8	+3.2	+0.3	2.01	+0.0	-0.0
Croatia	76.6	-12.1	-4.7	0.71	-0.1	-0.1
Bosnia and Herzegov	75.4	+5.3	+27.3	0.033	+0.0	+0.0
Belgium	70.6	+20.0	+25.9	0.1	+0.0	+0.0
France	68.3	-0.2	-1.4	0.48	+0.0	-0.0
Greece	67.5	-0.2	-14.2	0.15	+0.0	-0.0
Tunisia	64.7	+8.1	+9.0	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Nigeria	62.4	+10.6	+2.7	0.002	-0.0	+0.0
Ghana	60.1	+21.4	+35.5	0.008	+0.0	+0.0
Sweden	50.2	-15.3	-16.3	0.52	-0.2	-0.2
Honduras	48.8	-8.0	-2.5	0.006	-0.0	+0.0
Uruguay	42.9	+13.2	-16.6	0.22	+0.1	-0.1
New Zealand	35.9	-0.5	+0.1	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Algeria	34.3	+17.7	+17.9	0.0002	+0.0	+0.0
Ukraine	28.1	+16.8	+23.8	0.013	+0.0	+0.0
Panama	27.8	-28.1	-25.4	0.004	-0.0	-0.0
Venezuela	26.3	-28.8	-11.2	0.013	-0.0	-0.0
Cameroon	25.3	+2.4	+7.7	0.0003	-0.0	-0.0
Romania	24.6	+0.2	-2.0	0.028	+0.0	-0.0
Senegal	21.2	+3.9	+4.5	0	+0.0	+0.0
Czechia	18.1	+4.6	-6.1	0.026	+0.0	-0.0
Peru	16.2	+7.4	+11.1	0.006	+0.0	+0.0
Uzbekistan	13.8	-60.8	-56.1	0.0003	-0.0	-0.0
Norway	12.8	-6.6	-19.4	0.005	-0.0	-0.0
Burkina Faso	12.6	+7.7	+10.3	0	+0.0	+0.0
Zambia	12.1	-13.3	-23.9	0	-0.0	-0.0
Ethiopia	11.8	+8.1	+8.6	0	+0.0	+0.0
Libya	11.6	-1.0	-4.7	0	+0.0	-0.0
Jordan	10.1	-7.9	+5.7	0.0001	+0.0	+0.0
Gabon	8.4	-1.7	-9.8	0	+0.0	-0.0
Bulgaria	8.4	+3.3	+6.0	0.0003	-0.0	+0.0
Ireland	7	+3.4	+2.1	0.003	+0.0	+0.0
Uganda	6.8	+2.8	-1.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Hungary	6.5	+0.1	+0.1	0.001	+0.0	+0.0
Serbia	5.4	-1.5	-4.7	0.0003	-0.0	-0.0
Montenegro	5.3	-12.6	-5.6	0.0003	-0.0	-0.0
Poland	3.08	-2.4	-7.9	0.0004	-0.0	-0.0
Jamaica	2.78	-19.2	-30.7	0.0001	-0.0	-0.0
Austria	1.74	+1.4	+1.6	0	+0.0	+0.0
Malawi	1.24	-1.5	+0.4	0	+0.0	+0.0
Israel	1.12	-0.7	-0.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Albania	1.03	-0.1	+0.9	0	+0.0	+0.0
Denmark	0.87	-10.9	-11.1	0.001	-0.0	-0.0
Iceland	0.87	-1.4	+0.5	0	+0.0	+0.0
Slovenia	0.76	+0.5	-0.2	0	+0.0	+0.0
Turkey	0.62	+0.0	-0.1	0.0004	-0.0	+0.0
Scotland	0.39	+0.3	-1.2	0	+0.0	-0.0
Finland	0.28	-0.0	+0.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Slovakia	0.15	-0.8	-2.4	0	-0.0	+0.0
Congo	0.06	-4.2	-2.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Wales	0.06	+0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Paraguay	0.037	-0.6	-1.9	0	-0.0	-0.0
Armenia	0.019	+0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
Bolivia	0.013	-0.5	-0.7	0	-0.0	+0.0
Lithuania	0.013	-0.1	-0.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Cyprus	0.004	-0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0
New Caledonia	0.004	+0.0	-0.5	0	+0.0	+0.0
Macedonia	0.002	+0.0	-0.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Latvia	0.001	-0.0	-0.1	0	+0.0	+0.0
Estonia	0.0004	-0.0	-0.0	0	+0.0	+0.0

The two Asian groups to be decided tonight. Group winners and runner ups qualify whereas third places still have the chance to qualify via playoff.


Group A

Country	GD	Pts
1. South Korea	+7	14
2. Iran	+5	13
3. Uzbekistan	+1	11

Matches tonight:
South Korea - Iran
Uzbekistan - Qatar

South Korea and Iran qualify in most scenarios. More specifically

South Korea qualify if

• Win or draw against Iran
• They lose to Iran, and Uzbekistan fail to beat Qatar by 6 goals minus the number of goals Iran win by or more

Iran qualify if

• They win against South Korea
• The draw against South Korea and Uzbekistan fail to beat Qatar by 4 goals or more
• The lose against South Korea and Uzbekistan fail to beat Qatar

Uzbekistan qualify if they beat Qatar and any of following:

1. South Korea beat Iran
2. South Korea and Iran draw and Uzbekistan beat Qatar by 4 goals
3. South Korea lose against Iran and Uzbekistan beat Qatar by a combined goal difference of 7.

The matches start at the same time and most likely South Korea and Iran will initially be quite happy with a draw, since both team qualify with that result unless Uzbekistan starts scoring and get close to beat Qatar by 4 goals.



Group B

Country	GD	Pts
2. Australia	+4	10
3. Oman	-2	9
4. Jordan	-10	7

 Matches tonight:
Australia-Iraq
Jordan-Oman

Australia qualify if they

• beat Iraq
• draw Iraq and Oman fail to beat Jordan
• lose to Iraq and 
• Oman and Jordan draw and Australia lose with 5 goals or less
• Jordan beat Oman with combined goal difference 13 or less

Oman qualify if they

• Beat Jordan and Australia fail to beat Iraq
• Draw Jordan and Australia lose with more than 6 goals

Oman are out if they lose against Jordan

Jordan qualify if they beat Oman and Iraq beat Australia with a combined qoal difference of 15 or more

 Jordan are out if they fail to beat Oman