CL: Miracle in Amsterdam

Tottenham's chances were down to 0.6% before they started the comeback. In the final our simulations estimate their chances to 46% against Liverpool.

CL: Miracle in Liverpool

Below shows how the chances evolved over the knockout phase. Liverpool was down to 2.3% after a couple of minutes of the match tonight.

PL: Predictions after week 37

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	97.1	93-22	73	100
Liverpool	96.5	89-22	27	100
Chelsea	72.6	64-40	0	100
Tottenham	72.3	67-37	0	100
Arsenal	68.7	71-51	0	0.0467
Man United	68.4	67-52	0	0

Chelsea clinched top 4 and Man United are missing. Also, Tottenham have virtually clinched top 4, but Arsenal have a 0.05% probability to catch the 3-point and 8-goal margin.

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	66.1	100
96	18.8	20.3
95	15.1	20.1

We give Man City 73% to win the title. We predict Man City have 66% chance to win the last match against Brighton, which would mean the title. If they don't win, they need to rely on Wolves stealing points from Liverpool (20%).

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	79.7	33.9

Out simulations give Liverpool 80% against Wolves. Essentially Liverpool need to win, although a draw mathematically can suffice.

CL: Predictions after 1st leg semifinals

Our simulations give Liverpool 4% chance to turn around the semifinal against Barcelona, while Toittenham have just below 40% chance. The latter probably an overestimate as the model doesn't take into account injuries, recent form, et cetera.

How the probability of winning CL has evolved over the knockout-stage for the final four teams.

PL: Predictions after week 36

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	96.6	95-23	74.2	100
Liverpool	95.5	88-21	25.8	100
Tottenham	74.1	69-37	0	96.9
Chelsea	71.9	64-40	0	72.5
Arsenal	70.1	73-51	0	25.3
Man United	69.4	68-52	0	5.36

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	52.9	100
96	23.3	51.5
95	16.9	49.6
94	2.39	26.2
93	3.35	8.09
92	1.14	5.52

We predict Man City have 53% chance winning the last two matches and thereby clinching the title. If they lose two or three points they have ca 50% chance.

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	48.6	47.2
95	24	8.12
94	19.5	4.57
93	2.61	1.04

We predict Liverpool have ca 50% to win the last two matches and if they do, they have 47% to win the title.

Teams 3-6 behave like cyclists in aTour de France before the sprint. No one want to take the head wind and rather stay behind.

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
76	38.9	100
74	25	100
73	23.2	100
72	3.68	99.8
71	6.5	78
70	2.78	40.7

Tottenham need two more points to virtually clinch top 4.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
74	34.4	100
72	24.8	79.5
71	26.3	62.5
70	3.82	24.7
69	7.37	11.7
68	3.3	2.88

Chelsea clinch top 4 if they win last two matches and finish on 74 points. Even finishing on 71 points is likely sufficient to finish top 4.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
72	37.5	59.8
70	24.9	7.02
69	24	4.4

Arsenal need to win two last matches (36%) to have a reasonable chance (59%).

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
71	46.4	11.3

United can reach 71 points if they win both last matches (46%). That will likely not be sufficient as Arsenal have 38% to finish with more points and Chelsea have 59%.

PL: Predictions after week 35

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Man City	95.9	96-24	65.2	100
Liverpool	95.2	87-22	34.8	100
Tottenham	76.4	71-38	0	98.2
Chelsea	72.1	64-41	0	47.1
Arsenal	71.7	74-49	0	42.4
Man United	70	69-53	0	12.4

Man City
Point	Probability	Chance
98	35.8	100
96	25.4	58.5
95	18.9	58.1
94	5.87	33.3
93	8.58	14.2
92	3.6	9.56

Man City win if they win remaining matches (35.8%).

Liverpool
Point	Probability	Chance
97	41.5	64.3
95	25.3	20.1
94	19	14
93	4.6	5.42
92	6.37	1.91

Liverpool have slightly easier schedule with two home matches and predicted chance of 41.5% to win all of them.

The top 4 race has crystallized into a two-horse race between Chelsea and Arsenal.

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
79	27.7	100
77	24.3	100
76	21.2	100
75	6.78	99.7
74	11.5	98.2
73	5.34	94.6
72	1.53	70
71	1.25	53.3

Tottenham need another 6 points (73%) to be guaranteed to finish top 4. And even if they only take 3 points and finish on 73 they have >90% chance.

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
76	10.4	100
74	15.6	84.4
73	23.9	62.2
72	7.07	43.2
71	19.8	23.6
70	14.1	5.6
69	3.5	2.16

If Chelsea win remaining three matches (10%), they clinch top 4. The key match is against Man Unite din the next round.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
75	16.9	91.8
73	20.2	73.8
72	22.4	36.4
71	7.69	29.1
70	16.6	8.24
69	9.68	1.97

Arsenal have 42% to reach top 4. They need to take 7 more points to have a >50% chance. The most likely outcome is 6 points and finish on 72p, one point behind Chelsea.

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
73	21.3	46.2
71	22.1	10.1
70	23.4	1.21

United need to win remaining matches (21.3) to have a fair chance (46%).

PL: Tottenham probably clinch top 4

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	95.2	87-22	55.1	100
Man City	94.4	96-26	44.9	100
Tottenham	76.4	71-38	0	95.6
Arsenal	73.4	75-47	0	59.9
Chelsea	72.1	64-41	0	27.1
Man United	71.2	70-52	0	17.4

Tottenham won with a late winner against Brighton and now have a 95.6% chance to reach CL.

Tottenham
Point	Probability	Chance
79	27.8	100
77	24.3	100
76	21.2	100
75	6.8	95.4
74	11.5	92.7
73	5.33	76.3
72	1.53	47
71	1.25	30.3

Tottenham clinch top 4 if they finish with at least 76p (73%) and also 75 or 74 are likely (>90%) to suffice.

Arsenal
Point	Probability	Chance
78	8.57	100
76	14.2	99.6
75	15.9	86.4
74	8.52	84.3
73	19	57.1
72	12.5	29.5
71	7.21	19
70	7.92	4.81
69	3.67	1.16

If Arsenal finish on 73p they have a good chance (>50%).

Chelsea
Point	Probability	Chance
76	10.4	84.1
74	15.7	56.6
73	23.7	27.4
72	7.1	19.9
71	19.9	6.81
70	14.1	1.21

Chelsea probably need to take 74p to finish top 4.  

Man United
Point	Probability	Chance
76	6.88	83.3
74	12.2	52.4
73	16.8	21.1
72	7.63	12.1
71	19.9	3.5

Man United probably need to take 74p to finish top 4.