European tournaments

Simulations of the Champions League. Teams are sorted with respect to their median points and goal difference. The table also show how often teams reached the knockout stage (top 24), direct to R16 (top 8) et cetera.

Below also Europa League and Conference League and the probability for which countries win the extra CL slots.

Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
0	Man City	18	18-9	99.45%	96.0%	81%	96.7%	78%	59%	44%	22%
0	Real Madrid	16	18-14	96.7%	85%	59%	88%	62%	40%	24%	12%
0	Bayern	16	8-4	97.1%	86%	58%	84%	49%	25%	12%	6%
0	Arsenal	15	13-6	96.0%	82%	52%	84%	55%	33%	18%	9%
0	Dortmund	15	18-14	95.1%	80%	49%	78%	41%	19%	8%	4.0%
0	Inter	15	15-11	95.2%	80%	49%	83%	54%	32%	18%	9%
0	Barcelona	14	18-5	94%	78%	46%	77%	43%	21%	10%	4.8%
0	Leverkusen	14	23-15	93%	76%	45%	79%	48%	27%	14%	7%
0	Atalanta	14	15-10	92%	74%	41%	73%	38%	18%	7%	3.7%
0	Milan	13	16-13	88%	64%	30%	60%	25%	9%	3.2%	1.6%
0	Liverpool	13	15-14	85%	60%	28%	66%	37%	19%	9%	4.6%
0	Atletico	13	14-14	85%	59%	26%	58%	25%	10%	3.5%	1.8%
0	Stuttgart	13	12-12	85%	59%	26%	54%	21%	7%	2.1%	1.1%
0	RB Leipzig	12	19-11	83%	56%	25%	58%	27%	11%	4.3%	2.2%
0	PSV	12	16-15	79%	51%	21%	49%	19%	6%	1.9%	< 1%
0	Paris SG	12	13-12	79%	50%	21%	57%	30%	14%	6%	3.2%
0	Juventus	12	14-18	76%	46%	18%	49%	22%	9%	3.1%	1.6%
0	Aston Villa	11	12-8	75%	45%	17%	43%	15%	4.5%	1.2%	< 1%
0	Girona	11	15-12	75%	44%	16%	44%	16%	5%	1.6%	< 1%
0	Sporting	11	15-13	74%	44%	17%	47%	20%	8%	2.6%	1.3%
0	Monaco	11	12-13	71%	39%	13%	38%	13%	4.0%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Bologna	11	10-12	68%	37%	12%	37%	13%	3.9%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Benfica	10	16-15	65%	34%	11%	34%	11%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Lille	10	13-14	62%	31%	9%	33%	11%	3.6%	1.0%	< 1%
0	Celtic	10	11-16	57%	25%	6%	19%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Feyenoord	9	12-14	51%	22%	5%	23%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Brugge	9	5-10	46%	19%	4.4%	18%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Brest	9	10-16	45%	18%	4.2%	16%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Salzburg	9	8-16	44%	16%	3.4%	16%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Sparta Praha	9	9-18	44%	16%	3.4%	18%	4.6%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Dinamo Zagreb	7	14-21	27%	8%	1.3%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Sturm Graz	7	7-21	22%	6%	< 1%	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Young Boys	7	10-27	21%	5%	< 1%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Shakhtar	6	5-13	16%	3.7%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Crvena Zvezda	6	7-17	16%	3.8%	< 1%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Slovan Bratislava	4	12-29	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Simulations of the Europa League.

Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
0	Tottenham	16	15-12	96.2%	85%	61%	87%	59%	37%	23%	11%
0	Man United	15	15-9	95%	81%	54%	83%	53%	32%	18%	9%
0	Roma	14	20-7	93%	78%	49%	81%	53%	33%	20%	10%
0	Bilbao	14	18-8	93%	78%	49%	79%	48%	28%	15%	8%
0	Galatasaray	14	20-12	93%	77%	48%	74%	37%	17%	7%	3.7%
0	Porto	14	12-4	92%	76%	47%	80%	54%	34%	21%	11%
0	Lazio	14	20-14	92%	75%	46%	78%	50%	30%	17%	9%
0	Sociedad	14	13-10	90%	71%	41%	73%	43%	24%	12%	6%
0	Slavia Praha	14	17-15	90%	70%	40%	72%	42%	23%	12%	6%
0	Frankfurt	13	17-10	90%	69%	37%	67%	33%	15%	7%	3.3%
0	Lyon	13	13-11	85%	61%	31%	61%	30%	14%	6%	3.0%
0	Nice	13	10-8	84%	61%	31%	61%	30%	14%	6%	2.9%
0	Olympiakos	13	18-18	83%	59%	29%	58%	27%	11%	4.5%	2.2%
0	Anderlecht	12	15-12	81%	54%	24%	52%	22%	9%	3.1%	1.6%
0	Hoffenheim	12	12-10	79%	52%	23%	54%	26%	12%	5.0%	2.5%
0	PAOK	12	14-13	79%	51%	21%	48%	18%	6%	2.1%	1.0%
0	Fenerbahce	12	11-13	74%	48%	21%	52%	26%	12%	6%	2.8%
0	Ajax	11	12-11	71%	42%	16%	40%	14%	4.8%	1.5%	< 1%
0	St Gillis	11	10-9	70%	42%	17%	44%	19%	8%	2.9%	1.5%
0	Braga	11	16-16	70%	42%	16%	44%	19%	8%	3.0%	1.5%
0	M Tel Aviv	10	16-13	65%	35%	12%	33%	10%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Karabakh Agdam	10	14-13	63%	34%	11%	31%	9%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Midtjylland	10	11-10	62%	34%	12%	33%	11%	3.7%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Viktoria Plzen	10	11-13	58%	30%	10%	31%	12%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%
0	Twente	10	9-12	56%	28%	9%	29%	11%	3.6%	1.1%	< 1%
0	Bodoe Glimt	10	11-16	55%	26%	8%	27%	9%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Rangers	10	10-18	53%	25%	7%	25%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Alkmaar	10	10-18	53%	25%	8%	25%	8%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Dynamo Kyiv	9	11-13	49%	20%	4.9%	19%	5.0%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Malmoe	9	7-9	48%	22%	6%	19%	4.7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Besiktas	8	9-14	36%	14%	3.3%	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Ferencvaros	7	7-13	26%	9%	1.7%	7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Razgrad	7	6-13	25%	8%	1.6%	8%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Elfsborg	7	10-18	24%	8%	1.5%	8%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Steaua	7	10-18	23%	7%	1.2%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	RFS	3	4-14	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Simulatiosn of Conference League

Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
0	Chelsea	14	15-5	99.67%	96.7%	81%	98.3%	86%	70%	54%	27%
0	Betis	14	9-4	99.35%	95.2%	78%	96.0%	74%	49%	29%	14%
0	Fiorentina	13	18-4	99.33%	95%	77%	96.6%	78%	57%	37%	19%
0	Panathinaikos	12	15-7	97.6%	88%	58%	86%	48%	21%	8%	3.9%
0	Gent	12	9-9	96.0%	81%	47%	84%	51%	26%	11%	6%
0	Molde	11	13-6	95%	78%	45%	77%	38%	15%	4.9%	2.5%
0	Heidenheim	11	10-5	93%	75%	42%	83%	55%	32%	16%	8%
0	FC Kobenhavn	11	9-4	94%	76%	42%	80%	47%	24%	10%	5%
0	Cercle Brugge	10	12-4	90%	69%	36%	70%	34%	13%	4.1%	2.0%
0	Guimaraes	10	10-5	90%	67%	33%	73%	40%	19%	7%	3.7%
0	Rapid Wien	10	10-6	90%	66%	31%	64%	26%	9%	2.2%	1.1%
0	LASK	9	13-7	84%	55%	22%	55%	21%	7%	1.6%	< 1%
0	Omonia	9	11-5	83%	55%	22%	53%	19%	5%	1.2%	< 1%
0	Djurgarden	9	14-10	82%	55%	23%	54%	20%	6%	1.4%	< 1%
0	Bueyueksehir	9	12-9	83%	53%	21%	59%	26%	10%	3.1%	1.6%
0	Legia	9	9-6	81%	53%	21%	55%	22%	7%	1.9%	< 1%
0	Lugano	9	8-6	80%	51%	20%	51%	19%	6%	1.3%	< 1%
0	APOEL	9	7-8	77%	46%	15%	41%	12%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Olimpija Ljubljana	8	11-7	75%	42%	13%	39%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
0	StGallen	8	6-4	73%	40%	12%	44%	16%	5%	1.3%	< 1%
0	Jagiellonia	8	10-9	72%	40%	12%	39%	11%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Paphos	8	9-8	72%	39%	12%	40%	13%	3.6%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Mlada Boleslav	7	13-13	63%	31%	9%	35%	11%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Hearts	7	8-9	60%	27%	7%	27%	7%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
0	FK Astana	7	6-9	55%	23%	5%	23%	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Shamrock	7	10-14	56%	23%	4.2%	13%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Celje	6	10-12	45%	16%	2.9%	16%	3.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Backa Topola	6	5-10	40%	14%	2.6%	12%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Dinamo Minsk	6	9-15	38%	12%	2.0%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Noah	6	7-14	37%	12%	1.9%	10%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Vikingur	5	4-9	29%	9%	1.3%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Borac Banja Luka	4	7-9	26%	8%	1.3%	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	HJK Helsinki	4	4-9	21%	5.0%	< 1%	4.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Petrocub	3	8-16	11%	2.2%	< 1%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	The New Saints	3	9-18	10%	1.9%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Larne	3	3-16	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	71%	17.65	8.14	26.14
ESP	40%	15.97	7.14	25
ITA	29%	15.44	7.13	23.75
GER	22%	15.01	7	24.13
POR	21%	14.66	5.8	26.7
BEL	7%	13.42	5.6	24.4
CYP	3.1%	12.32	4.33	23.67
GRE	2.6%	12.31	4.88	22.13
CZE	1.8%	12.07	5.7	22.4
TUR	< 1%	11.35	4.1	20.7
UKR	< 1%	8.47	2.5	31
FRA	< 1%	10.29	3.79	19.5
SWE	< 1%	10.07	4.75	20.5
NED	< 1%	9.17	3.33	19.08
AUT	< 1%	8.44	3	18.9
DEN	< 1%	8.69	3.25	16.25
NOR	< 1%	8.87	4.13	16.63

PL: Man City hosting Arsenal on Sunday

Saturday gives us two matches in the relegation race with Everton travelling to Leicester and Ipswich going to Southampton.

Sunday gives us a top match when Man City host Arsenal. Arsenal increase their title chances from 12 to 14% with a draw and almost triple their chances with a win (22%) compared with a loss (8%).

Hot Teams
Aston Villa: 9 points in the last 4 matches, 3.3 more than expected
Newcastle: 10 points in the last 4 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Forest: 8 points in the last 4 matches, 3.0 more than expected
Man City: 12 points in the last 4 matches, 2.7 more than expected
Brighton: 8 points in the last 4 matches, 2.5 more than expected

Cold Teams
Everton: 0 points in the last 4 matches, 4.7 less than expected
Southampton: 0 points in the last 4 matches, 3.8 less than expected
Crystal Palace: 2 points in the last 4 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Wolves: 1 point in the last 4 matches, 2.9 less than expected
Leicester: 2 points in the last 4 matches, 2.1 less than expected

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
12	Man City	89.7	+62	< 1%	>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
10	Arsenal	78.8	+42	< 1%	99.83%	99.59%	98.9%	97.2%	12%	< 1%	1.2%	98.5%
9	Liverpool	72.3	+33	< 1%	98.0%	96.1%	92%	85%	2.6%	1.4%	7%	91%
10	Newcastle	62.2	+11	< 1%	75%	65%	50%	32%	< 1%	9%	26%	45%
7	Chelsea	62.1	+16	< 1%	76%	66%	51%	33%	< 1%	7%	33%	46%
9	Aston Villa	58.7	+5	< 1%	58%	45%	31%	17%	< 1%	12%	24%	27%
4	Tottenham	56.6	+11	< 1%	48%	36%	23%	12%	< 1%	11%	20%	29%
6	Man United	56.0	+4	< 1%	44%	32%	20%	10%	< 1%	11%	19%	25%
8	Brighton	53.8	+1	< 1%	32%	22%	13%	6%	< 1%	11%	17%	11%
4	West Ham	50.4	-3	2.7%	18%	11%	6%	2.4%	< 1%	7%	11%	4.8%
6	Brentford	50.2	-5	3.0%	17%	10%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	8%	11%	4.5%
5	Fulham	47.9	-8	5%	10%	6%	2.9%	1.1%	< 1%	6%	7%	2.3%
2	Crystal Palace	47.7	-6	6%	10%	6%	2.8%	1.0%	< 1%	6%	9%	2.3%
5	Bournemouth	46.3	-11	8%	7%	3.6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	3.5%	4.4%	1.3%
8	Forest	44.8	-16	11%	4.5%	2.4%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	5%	< 1%
0	Everton	40.1	-21	30%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	1.1%	< 1%
1	Wolves	39.8	-22	31%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
2	Leicester	38.1	-22	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
2	Ipswich	31.3	-37	79%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
0	Southampton	30.7	-36	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	One Title	Two titles	Three titles	Four titles	Double	Treble	Quadruple
Man City	96.1%	67%	25%	3.3%	37%	8%	3.3%
Arsenal	44%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
Liverpool	26%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Newcastle	9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Chelsea	33%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	4.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Man United	13%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
West Ham	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Brentford	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Fulham	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Crystal Palace	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%		< 1%
Bournemouth	< 1%	< 1%			< 1%
Forest	2.4%	< 1%			< 1%
Everton	< 1%	< 1%
Wolves	< 1%	< 1%
Leicester	2.8%	< 1%
Ipswich	< 1%
Southampton	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Man City vs Arsenal (3.8%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Man City	89%	82%	74%
Arsenal	8%	14%	22%

	Man City			Arsenal			Liverpool
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
104	1.1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
103	1.8%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
102	2.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
101	4.0%	1.3%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	99%	< 1%	< 1%	-
100	6%	1.8%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	97%	< 1%	< 1%	-
99	8%	2.3%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	96%	< 1%	< 1%	-
98	11%	2.9%	99.9%	< 1%	< 1%	93%	< 1%	< 1%	-
97	14%	3.5%	99.8%	< 1%	< 1%	92%	< 1%	< 1%	-
96	19%	4.1%	99.6%	< 1%	< 1%	88%	< 1%	< 1%	86%
95	23%	4.7%	99.4%	< 1%	< 1%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	85%
94	28%	5%	99.0%	1.5%	< 1%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	82%
93	34%	6%	98.4%	2.2%	< 1%	73%	< 1%	< 1%	72%
92	40%	6%	97.5%	3.1%	< 1%	66%	< 1%	< 1%	68%
91	46%	6%	96.5%	4.4%	1.3%	60%	< 1%	< 1%	61%
90	52%	6%	95%	6%	1.6%	54%	< 1%	< 1%	54%
89	58%	6%	93%	8%	2.0%	47%	1.0%	< 1%	46%
88	64%	6%	90%	11%	2.5%	40%	1.5%	< 1%	39%
87	70%	5%	86%	14%	3.0%	34%	2.2%	< 1%	33%
86	75%	5%	82%	17%	3.5%	28%	3.1%	< 1%	26%
85	79%	4.5%	77%	21%	4.0%	22%	4.3%	1.2%	20%
84	83%	4.0%	72%	26%	4.5%	18%	6%	1.5%	15%
83	87%	3.4%	65%	30%	4.9%	13%	8%	1.9%	11%
82	90%	2.9%	58%	36%	5%	10%	10%	2.3%	8%
81	92%	2.4%	51%	41%	5%	8%	13%	2.7%	6%
80	94%	2.0%	44%	47%	6%	5%	16%	3.2%	4%
79	95.5%	1.5%	37%	53%	6%	3.6%	19%	3.7%	2.4%
78	96.7%	1.2%	30%	58%	6%	2.4%	24%	4.2%	1.5%
77	97.6%	< 1%	23%	64%	5%	1.5%	28%	4.6%	< 1%
76	98.3%	< 1%	18%	69%	5%	< 1%	33%	4.9%	< 1%
75	98.8%	< 1%	12%	74%	4.8%	< 1%	38%	5%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Leicester vs Everton (3.3%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Leicester	68%	57%	51%
Everton	64%	70%	79%
Southampton vs Ipswich (2.4%)	Home Win (52%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (25%)
Ipswich	17%	21%	30%
Southampton	23%	16%	12%

	Southampton			Ipswich			Leicester			Wolves			Everton			Forest			Bournemouth			Crystal Palace			Fulham			Brentford			West Ham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
57	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	1.3%	< 1%	100%	5%	1.3%	100%	8%	1.8%	100%	11%	2.4%	100%	12%	2.5%	100%	19%	3.5%	100%	20%	3.6%	100%
56	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	1.8%	< 1%	100%	7%	1.6%	100%	10%	2.2%	100%	14%	2.8%	100%	15%	2.9%	100%	23%	3.9%	100%	24%	4.0%	100%
55	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.1%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	100%	2.4%	< 1%	100%	9%	2.0%	100%	13%	2.6%	100%	18%	3.2%	100%	18%	3.4%	100%	28%	4.3%	100%	29%	4.5%	100%
54	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.6%	< 1%	100%	2.9%	< 1%	100%	3.3%	< 1%	100%	11%	2.4%	100%	16%	3.1%	100%	21%	3.7%	100%	22%	3.8%	100%	32%	4.7%	100%	34%	4.9%	100%
53	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.2%	< 1%	100%	3.9%	1.0%	100%	4.4%	1.1%	100%	14%	2.8%	100%	19%	3.5%	100%	25%	4.1%	100%	26%	4.2%	100%	37%	5.0%	100%	39%	5%	100%
52	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.0%	< 1%	100%	5%	1.3%	100%	6%	1.4%	100%	17%	3.3%	100%	23%	4.0%	100%	30%	4.6%	100%	31%	4.6%	100%	43%	5%	100%	44%	5%	100%
51	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	4.1%	1.1%	100%	7%	1.6%	100%	8%	1.8%	100%	21%	3.7%	100%	28%	4.4%	100%	35%	4.9%	100%	36%	5.0%	100%	48%	5%	100%	49%	5%	100%
50	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	5%	1.4%	100%	9%	2.0%	100%	10%	2.2%	100%	25%	4.2%	100%	32%	4.8%	100%	40%	5%	100%	41%	5%	100%	53%	5%	100%	55%	5%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	7%	1.7%	100%	11%	2.4%	100%	12%	2.5%	100%	30%	4.6%	100%	37%	5%	100%	45%	5%	100%	46%	5%	100%	59%	5%	100%	60%	5%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.0%	< 1%	100%	9%	2.1%	100%	14%	2.8%	100%	15%	3.0%	100%	35%	5.0%	100%	43%	5%	100%	51%	5%	100%	52%	5%	100%	64%	5%	100%	65%	5%	100%
47	1.2%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	12%	2.5%	100%	17%	3.3%	100%	19%	3.5%	100%	40%	5%	>99.99%	48%	5%	>99.99%	56%	5%	100%	57%	5%	100%	69%	5.0%	100%	70%	4.9%	100%
46	1.7%	< 1%	99.9%	2.0%	< 1%	100%	15%	2.9%	>99.99%	21%	3.7%	>99.99%	23%	3.9%	99.99%	46%	5%	>99.99%	54%	6%	>99.99%	61%	5%	100%	62%	5%	100%	73%	4.7%	100%	75%	4.6%	>99.99%
45	2.4%	< 1%	99.9%	2.8%	< 1%	99.9%	18%	3.4%	99.9%	25%	4.2%	99.9%	27%	4.3%	99.96%	51%	6%	99.98%	59%	5%	>99.99%	67%	5%	99.99%	67%	5%	>99.99%	78%	4.3%	99.99%	79%	4.2%	>99.99%
44	3.3%	< 1%	99.7%	3.8%	1.0%	99.5%	22%	3.9%	99.8%	30%	4.6%	99.8%	32%	4.7%	99.8%	57%	6%	99.9%	65%	5%	99.9%	71%	4.8%	99.9%	72%	4.9%	99.9%	82%	3.9%	99.9%	83%	3.8%	99.9%
43	4.4%	1.1%	99%	5%	1.3%	98.8%	26%	4.3%	99.4%	35%	4.9%	99.4%	37%	5%	99.4%	62%	6%	99.6%	70%	5%	99.7%	76%	4.5%	99.7%	77%	4.4%	99.7%	85%	3.5%	99.8%	86%	3.3%	99.7%
42	6%	1.4%	97%	7%	1.7%	97%	31%	4.7%	98.2%	40%	5%	98.2%	42%	5%	98.2%	68%	5%	98.8%	74%	4.8%	98.9%	80%	4.1%	99.2%	81%	4.1%	99.2%	88%	3.0%	99.1%	89%	2.8%	99.3%
41	8%	1.8%	92%	9%	2.1%	93%	36%	5%	95.5%	45%	5%	96.1%	48%	5%	96.1%	73%	5.0%	97.0%	79%	4.3%	97.4%	84%	3.7%	97.9%	84%	3.6%	97.6%	91%	2.6%	97.6%	91%	2.4%	97.8%
40	10%	2.2%	85%	11%	2.5%	85%	41%	5%	91%	51%	6%	91%	53%	6%	91%	77%	4.6%	93%	83%	3.9%	94%	87%	3.2%	95%	88%	3.1%	95%	93%	2.1%	94%	93%	2.0%	95%
39	13%	2.7%	75%	14%	3.0%	74%	47%	6%	83%	57%	6%	84%	59%	5%	85%	81%	4.1%	87%	86%	3.4%	89%	90%	2.7%	90%	90%	2.7%	89%	95%	1.7%	88%	95.0%	1.6%	88%
38	16%	3.1%	61%	18%	3.4%	61%	53%	6%	73%	62%	5%	74%	64%	5%	75%	85%	3.7%	78%	89%	2.9%	80%	92%	2.3%	81%	93%	2.2%	81%	95.9%	1.4%	80%	96.3%	1.3%	81%
37	19%	3.7%	47%	22%	3.9%	47%	58%	6%	61%	67%	5%	62%	69%	5%	63%	88%	3.1%	67%	91%	2.5%	68%	94%	1.9%	70%	94%	1.8%	69%	97.1%	1.1%	68%	97.3%	1.0%	69%
36	24%	4.2%	33%	26%	4.5%	33%	64%	5%	48%	72%	5.0%	49%	74%	4.8%	50%	91%	2.7%	53%	94%	2.0%	55%	95.4%	1.5%	58%	95.8%	1.5%	57%	97.9%	< 1%	57%	98.1%	< 1%	54%
35	28%	4.6%	22%	31%	4.9%	22%	69%	5%	35%	77%	4.6%	37%	78%	4.4%	36%	93%	2.2%	41%	95.2%	1.6%	43%	96.6%	1.2%	45%	96.9%	1.1%	43%	98.5%	< 1%	40%	98.7%	< 1%	42%
34	33%	5%	13%	36%	5%	13%	74%	4.9%	24%	81%	4.2%	25%	82%	4.0%	26%	95%	1.8%	28%	96.5%	1.3%	29%	97.6%	< 1%	31%	97.8%	< 1%	31%	99.0%	< 1%	30%	99.09%	< 1%	29%
33	39%	5%	8%	42%	6%	7%	79%	4.5%	15%	85%	3.7%	16%	86%	3.5%	16%	96.3%	1.4%	20%	97.5%	< 1%	19%	98.3%	< 1%	20%	98.5%	< 1%	20%	99.33%	< 1%	19%	99.40%	< 1%	19%
32	44%	6%	3.9%	48%	6%	4.0%	83%	4.0%	9%	88%	3.2%	10%	89%	3.0%	10%	97.4%	1.1%	11%	98.2%	< 1%	12%	98.8%	< 1%	13%	99.0%	< 1%	12%	99.55%	< 1%	11%	99.61%	< 1%	11%
31	50%	6%	2.0%	54%	6%	1.9%	86%	3.5%	5%	91%	2.7%	6%	91%	2.6%	6%	98.2%	< 1%	7%	98.8%	< 1%	6%	99.20%	< 1%	8%	99.33%	< 1%	7%	99.71%	< 1%	7%	99.75%	< 1%	6%
30	56%	6%	< 1%	60%	6%	< 1%	89%	3.0%	2.5%	93%	2.3%	3%	93%	2.1%	3%	98.8%	< 1%	3%	99.19%	< 1%	3%	99.47%	< 1%	3%	99.57%	< 1%	4%	99.82%	< 1%	3%	99.85%	< 1%	5%
29	62%	6%	< 1%	65%	6%	< 1%	92%	2.5%	1.2%	95%	1.8%	1.4%	95.0%	1.7%	1.5%	99.20%	< 1%	1%	99.47%	< 1%	2%	99.66%	< 1%	2%	99.73%	< 1%	2%	99.89%	< 1%	1%	99.91%	< 1%	< 1%
28	68%	6%	< 1%	71%	5%	< 1%	94%	2.1%	< 1%	96.1%	1.4%	< 1%	96.4%	1.4%	< 1%	99.48%	< 1%	< 1%	99.66%	< 1%	< 1%	99.78%	< 1%	< 1%	99.84%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%
27	73%	5%	< 1%	76%	5%	< 1%	95.5%	1.7%	< 1%	97.2%	1.1%	< 1%	97.4%	1.0%	< 1%	99.68%	< 1%	< 1%	99.79%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%	99.90%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%
26	78%	4.8%	< 1%	81%	4.6%	< 1%	96.8%	1.3%	< 1%	98.0%	< 1%	< 1%	98.2%	< 1%	< 1%	99.81%	< 1%	< 1%	99.87%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	99.94%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	< 1%
25	82%	4.3%	< 1%	85%	4.0%	< 1%	97.7%	< 1%	< 1%	98.7%	< 1%	< 1%	98.8%	< 1%	< 1%	99.89%	< 1%	< 1%	99.92%	< 1%	< 1%	99.95%	< 1%	< 1%	99.97%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%	< 1%	-	99.99%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	>99.99%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	71%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	68%
League cup winners	100%	85%	79%
Sixth team	98.8%	92%	2.8%
Seventh team	88%	56%	2.8%
Eighth team	54%	10%	2.5%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 94
Simulated points for fourth: 65 - 70
Simulated points for 17th team: 36 - 40

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
West Ham	40%	24%	36%	Chelsea
Aston Villa	61%	20%	18%	Wolves
Liverpool	72%	16%	12%	Bournemouth
Tottenham	58%	21%	21%	Brentford
Leicester	44%	24%	32%	Everton
Southampton	52%	23%	25%	Ipswich
Fulham	39%	24%	36%	Newcastle
Crystal Palace	45%	24%	31%	Man United
Brighton	58%	21%	20%	Forest
Man City	60%	21%	19%	Arsenal

Most likely combo of teams in CL

9%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
6%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
4.5%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
4.3%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham
4.2%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham
3.5%	Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
3.4%	Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Newcastle
3.1%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

19%	Ipswich, Leicester, Southampton
14%	Ipswich, Southampton, Wolves
13%	Everton, Ipswich, Southampton
4.7%	Forest, Ipswich, Southampton
3.4%	Leicester, Southampton, Wolves
3.3%	Bournemouth, Ipswich, Southampton
3.2%	Everton, Leicester, Southampton
3.1%	Ipswich, Leicester, Wolves
2.9%	Everton, Ipswich, Leicester
2.3%	Everton, Southampton, Wolves