CL: Real Madrid favourites

Manchester City hosted Real Madrid and managed to draw, 0-0. That should be considered a good result for Man City although they did not win. They increased their chances to reach the final to 32% (+5%), and now go to Madrid with no pressure that they have to score.

Atletico won against Bayern with 1-0 at home. Their chances increased from 40% to 62% to reach the final.

Real Madrid are still the favourites to win the title (38%) with Atletico Madrid second hand favourite (29%).

PL: Leicester a win from premiership

Tottenham drew West Bromwich and is again trailing 7 points. Leicester only need another win, which they get the chance to accomplish on Sunday at Old Trafford. If they fail winning against Man United, they can clinch the title on Monday at Stamford Bridge if Chelsea beat Tottenham.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Chance%
Leicester	79.6	67-38	97
Tottenham	73.6	70-30	2.99

Important Matches			1					X					2
Home		Away		Leices	Totten		Leices	Totten		Leices	Totten	Importance
Chelsea	-	Tottenham		100	0		97.8	2.16		90.4	9.57	28.2
Leicester	-	Everton		100	0		95.9	4.07		91.7	8.29	24.5
Newcastle	-	Tottenham		100	0		98.9	1.11		94.5	5.5	14.4
Tottenham	-	Southampton		95.2	4.83		99	1		100	0	11.2
Man United	-	Leicester		95.4	4.6		97.6	2.43		100	0	9.57
Chelsea	-	Leicester		95.6	4.39		97.7	2.27		100	0	8.4

Points	Leicester		Tottenham
85	2.77	100	-	-
83	6.47	100	-	-
82	14.5	100	-	-
81	4.86	100	-	-
80	21	100	-	-
79	23.2	100	-	-
78	6.74	92.6	7.43	27.2
77	13	92.6	-	-
76	7.51	79.7	12.8	7.57

PL: Tottenham won against Stoke

Tottenham won against Stoke and is only two four points behind in expected outcome (average outcome in simulations). The probability that they will catch up that deficit is estimated to 18% - one in six.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Chance%
Leicester	78.6	65-39	81.6
Tottenham	74.8	71-30	17.9
Arsenal	69.9	66-39	0.291
Man City	69.2	70-38	0.277

Important Matches			1					X					2
Home		Away		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci	Importance
Leicester	-	Swansea		90.3	9.72	0	0		73.3	25.6	0.553	0.52		63.2	35	0.916	0.881	42
Leicester	-	Everton		91.5	8.48	0	0		75.6	23.5	0.443	0.428		66	32.5	0.762	0.722	41.8
Chelsea	-	Tottenham		89.4	9.85	0.39	0.361		84.2	15.2	0.275	0.267		63.9	35.8	0.111	0.122	37.4
Newcastle	-	Tottenham		92.8	6.31	0.484	0.414		89.1	10.3	0.333	0.335		71.9	27.8	0.165	0.175	35.9
Tottenham	-	Southampton		74	25.6	0.188	0.186		90	9.29	0.372	0.374		93.6	5.52	0.486	0.427	31.4
Tottenham	-	West Brom		76	23.6	0.207	0.218		90.8	8.4	0.398	0.353		94.1	4.97	0.516	0.437	25.4
Man United	-	Leicester		75	24.1	0.448	0.427		83	16.5	0.234	0.224		94.5	5.46	0	0	25.4
Chelsea	-	Leicester		75.9	23.3	0.421	0.405		83.4	16.1	0.235	0.216		94.8	5.24	0	0	22.7

Points	Leicester		Tottenham		Arsenal		Man City
85	1.62	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	4.45	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	9.28	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	4.28	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	16.9	95.1	4.87	80.2	-	-	-	-
79	17.7	95.1	-	-	-	-	-	-
78	9.32	85.4	9.83	45.5	-	-	-	-
77	16.6	70.3	15.1	36.4	-	-	-	-
76	10.3	63.2	6.9	19.8	-	-	-	-
75	3.99	40	19.8	9.02	5.38	4.72	4.36	5.51
74	4.03	25.5	15	4.93	-	-	-	-
73	1.46	14.3	8.33	1.15	10.5	0.346	9.2	0.399

PL: Leicester drew West Ham

Leicester drew West Ham and are down to 90% chance. They still got everything in their own hands and if they take 8 points in the remaining four matches, they are champions. Arsenal drew Crystal Palace and are now out of the race (<1%) and mostly playing for CL qualifications. Tottenham are playing Stoke tonight and if they win that, they climb up on 18% chance

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Chance%
Leicester	78.6	65-39	89.8
Tottenham	73.1	68-31	9.37
Arsenal	69.9	66-39	0.426
Man City	69.2	70-38	0.397

Important Matches			1					X					2
Home		Away		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci	Importance
Leicester	-	Swansea		95.6	4.45	0	0		84.8	13.7	0.774	0.679		77.3	20	1.38	1.33	31.2
Leicester	-	Everton		96.1	3.85	0	0		86.4	12.4	0.621	0.571		79.6	18.2	1.14	1.07	29.4
Stoke	-	Tottenham		95.5	3.46	0.529	0.491		93.1	6.06	0.467	0.41		81.6	17.9	0.288	0.288	24.9
Chelsea	-	Tottenham		94.6	4.44	0.517	0.466		91.6	7.53	0.411	0.413		78.9	20.6	0.261	0.248	24.4
Newcastle	-	Tottenham		96.2	2.71	0.56	0.497		94.3	4.81	0.476	0.457		84.2	15.1	0.328	0.315	21.5
Tottenham	-	Southampton		85.6	13.8	0.362	0.33		94.6	4.44	0.497	0.479		96.6	2.42	0.527	0.498	17.9
Man United	-	Leicester		85.7	13	0.65	0.616		91	8.38	0.359	0.311		97.6	2.4	0	0	16.3
Tottenham	-	West Brom		86.7	12.6	0.365	0.348		95.1	3.94	0.487	0.474		96.7	2.13	0.61	0.513	14.6
Chelsea	-	Leicester		86.3	12.5	0.624	0.585		91.4	8.02	0.324	0.295		97.7	2.33	0	0	14.5
Man City	-	Arsenal		89.9	9.39	0	0.729		90.3	9.48	0.138	0.0629		89.2	9.21	1.59	0	6.92
Southampton	-	Man City		90.1	9.49	0.411	0		90	9.52	0.431	0.0881		89.5	9.19	0.434	0.882	2.7
Sunderland	-	Arsenal		90.2	9.44	0	0.384		90	9.48	0.0569	0.417		89.6	9.29	0.762	0.394	2.16
Swansea	-	Man City		90.1	9.48	0.44	0		90.1	9.43	0.412	0.0654		89.6	9.28	0.424	0.743	2.13
Newcastle	-	Man City		90.2	9.39	0.403	0		90.1	9.38	0.423	0.0562		89.5	9.35	0.435	0.671	1.79
Man City	-	Stoke		89.7	9.29	0.423	0.583		90	9.49	0.439	0.0532		90	9.54	0.422	0	1.3
Arsenal	-	West Brom		89.7	9.34	0.599	0.396		90	9.5	0.0517	0.402		90.3	9.35	0	0.395	1.24
Arsenal	-	Norwich		89.7	9.34	0.569	0.395		90.1	9.42	0.0427	0.408		90.1	9.47	0	0.392	1.06
Arsenal	-	Aston Villa		89.7	9.34	0.539	0.39		90.1	9.41	0.0473	0.426		90.1	9.51	0	0.417	0.853

Points	Leicester		Tottenham		Arsenal		Man City
85	1.64	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	4.45	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	9.23	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	4.26	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	16.9	98.2	1.81	79.7	-	-	-	-
79	17.7	98.2	-	-	-	-	-	-
78	9.36	93.5	4.77	45.6	-	-	-	-
77	16.6	86.2	7.46	36.3	-	-	-	-
76	10.4	81	4.91	19.6	-	-	-	-
75	3.96	60.1	14.8	8.9	5.37	6.7	4.36	7.43
74	4.05	48.2	13.1	4.89	-	-	-	-
73	1.44	30.1	10.5	1.13	10.5	0.631	9.23	0.786

Reigning champs Barcelona knocked out

Reigning Champs, Barcelona, fell off their throne, kicked out by Griezmann and the rest of Atletico Madrid. Yesterday rival Real Madrid turned around a 0-2 deficit after three goals from Ronaldo, which makes them favourites with Bayern. Both with 2/1 odds (3.0). Atletico with a 3/1 odds (4.0) and dark horse from Manchester a 5/1 odds (6.0).

Quite remarkable that no team has managed to win two consecutive Champions League titles, given that it is usually the same teams up in the quarter finals. During Champions Cup era Milan won both 89 and 90, and Bayern and Ajax had each three consecutive titles in the 70s. Clearly, when it was a cup for only the champions, with only one team from the best leagues, it was easier to win, and Barcelona, for example, did not risk to play Atletic.

PL: Leicester three (of five) wins from title

Leicester three wins from the title with five rounds to go. They can, in other words, afford to lose twice and still secure their title. Tottenham is the only contender in practice (7%) as Arsenal failed to beat West Ham.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Chance%
Leicester	79.5	65-38	91.7
Tottenham	73.1	68-31	6.68
Arsenal	71.1	68-39	1.51
Man City	67.4	68-40	0.114

Important Matches			1					X					2
Home		Away		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci	Importance
Leicester	-	Swansea		96.4	3.14	0.439	0.02		87.7	9.7	2.43	0.148		81.3	14.5	3.85	0.372	23.7
Leicester	-	West Ham		96.7	2.87	0.393	0.0154		88.6	9.08	2.24	0.134		82.3	13.8	3.57	0.341	23.6
Leicester	-	Everton		96.9	2.72	0.355	0.0172		89	8.81	2.07	0.114		83.2	13.1	3.43	0.319	22.9
Chelsea	-	Tottenham		95.2	2.93	1.7	0.127		92.7	5.66	1.52	0.125		83.9	14.9	1.12	0.0791	18.1
Stoke	-	Tottenham		95.8	2.25	1.8	0.144		93.7	4.6	1.58	0.125		86	12.8	1.15	0.0749	18.1
Newcastle	-	Tottenham		96.2	1.8	1.81	0.151		94.5	3.72	1.67	0.13		87.9	10.7	1.27	0.0863	14.8
Man United	-	Leicester		88.3	9.31	2.18	0.184		92.7	5.88	1.32	0.0678		98.1	1.68	0.206	0.00452	13.2
Tottenham	-	Southampton		88.8	9.81	1.31	0.0969		94.9	3.28	1.71	0.127		96.4	1.59	1.83	0.149	12.7
Chelsea	-	Leicester		88.8	8.95	2.11	0.175		93	5.7	1.21	0.0594		98.2	1.62	0.199	0.00653	11.8
Tottenham	-	West Brom		89.6	8.95	1.37	0.0996		95	3.07	1.74	0.149		96.7	1.39	1.81	0.134	9.99
Man City	-	Arsenal		92.6	6.9	0.314	0.209		92.3	6.73	0.939	0.0163		89.3	6.16	4.55	0.00201	9.64
Sunderland	-	Arsenal		92.8	6.93	0.149	0.112		92.6	6.8	0.478	0.121		90.8	6.52	2.52	0.112	5.06
Arsenal	-	Crystal Palace		91.2	6.57	2.08	0.107		92.6	6.87	0.382	0.127		92.8	6.94	0.117	0.136	3.3
Arsenal	-	West Brom		91.3	6.56	2.05	0.117		92.6	6.9	0.392	0.107		92.8	6.98	0.094	0.111	3.19
Arsenal	-	Norwich		91.4	6.57	1.95	0.112		92.6	6.95	0.336	0.133		92.7	7.05	0.124	0.101	2.67
Arsenal	-	Aston Villa		91.4	6.61	1.87	0.11		92.6	6.92	0.321	0.123		92.9	6.88	0.108	0.139	2.25
Chelsea	-	Man City		91.8	6.67	1.53	0.00464		91.7	6.78	1.53	0.0308		91.6	6.61	1.46	0.319	0.924
Southampton	-	Man City		91.8	6.69	1.51	0.0012		91.7	6.77	1.53	0.0242		91.6	6.61	1.49	0.253	0.756
Swansea	-	Man City		91.8	6.68	1.53	0.00272		91.8	6.69	1.53	0.0175		91.6	6.67	1.49	0.213	0.584
Newcastle	-	Man City		91.8	6.66	1.5	0.00472		91.8	6.71	1.51	0.0168		91.6	6.67	1.51	0.191	0.464

Points	Leicester		Tottenham		Arsenal		Man City
87	0.914	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	2.85	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	5.53	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	3.34	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	12.4	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	12.9	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	9.86	98.2	1.78	61.6	-	-	-	-
79	16.8	98.3	-	-	-	-	-	-
78	11.8	93.5	4.82	35	-	-	-	-
77	7.98	83	7.44	22.8	3.69	20.9	-	-
76	8.23	78.3	4.91	15	-	-	-	-
75	4	57.6	14.8	6.56	8.13	5.4	1.44	5.76
74	1.78	39.9	13.1	2.68	11.7	1.99	-	-
73	1.22	28.1	10.5	1.04	6.87	0.692	4.05	0.654
72	0.321	12.7	15.3	0.184	17.8	0.104	5.28	0.0927

CL: Quarter Final - 1st Leg

The results yesterday were expected and did not change the chances for the involved teams. Today, however, PSG had a disappointing draw at home, and more remarkably Wolfsburg won against Real Madrid with 2-0, which gives them a realistic chance (61%) to knock out Real Madrid.

Chanse		Home				Away
72%	(+4)	Barcelona	2	-	1	Atletico
86%	(+7)	Bayern	1	-	0	Benfica
61%	(+45)	Wolfsburg	2	-	0	Real Madrid
39%	(-21)	Paris SG	2	-	2	Man City

Leicester 12 points from title

Leicester had  another one-nil win. They now need to four more wins in remaining six matches to secure championship, but likely only two more wins is sufficient to win.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Chance%
Leicester	78	64-39	83.9
Tottenham	71.9	67-32	8.44
Arsenal	71.7	66-38	7.28
Man City	66.7	69-40	0.359

Important Matches			1					X					2
Home		Away		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci		Leices	Totten	Arsena	Man Ci	Importance
Leicester	-	West Ham		91.2	4.7	3.95	0.114		79	11.1	9.49	0.482		70.5	15.2	13.4	0.853	27.4
Leicester	-	Everton		91.6	4.48	3.76	0.109		79.7	10.7	9.15	0.441		71.5	14.7	13	0.809	27.2
Leicester	-	Swansea		90.6	5.02	4.23	0.135		77.9	11.6	10	0.504		69.5	15.7	13.9	0.903	26.4
Sunderland	-	Leicester		73.9	13.5	11.9	0.716		81.5	9.77	8.35	0.372		92.6	3.97	3.33	0.0912	25.9
Man City	-	Arsenal		86.8	8.99	3.58	0.643		85.1	8.62	6.21	0.0878		76.8	7.11	16.1	0.0113	19.1
Man United	-	Leicester		78.5	11.2	9.75	0.52		85.3	7.84	6.58	0.295		94.4	2.95	2.56	0.0675	18.2
Chelsea	-	Tottenham		87.3	4.35	7.91	0.408		84.7	7.39	7.48	0.381		76.5	17.4	5.88	0.244	17.5
Stoke	-	Tottenham		87.9	3.55	8.1	0.423		85.9	6.16	7.55	0.382		78.3	15.2	6.23	0.276	17.5
Chelsea	-	Leicester		79.1	10.8	9.5	0.512		85.8	7.62	6.3	0.258		94.6	2.92	2.43	0.059	16.5
West Ham	-	Arsenal		87.8	9.29	2.48	0.417		86.3	8.86	4.43	0.399		79.7	7.57	12.4	0.295	16.2
Newcastle	-	Tottenham		88.5	2.8	8.25	0.432		86.7	5.14	7.77	0.405		80.1	13.1	6.53	0.298	15.4
Tottenham	-	Man United		80.3	12.8	6.56	0.3		86.7	5.02	7.87	0.406		88.6	2.78	8.2	0.435	14.8
Sunderland	-	Arsenal		88.1	9.37	2.08	0.439		86.9	8.9	3.79	0.389		80.9	7.84	11	0.313	13.7
Tottenham	-	Southampton		81	12	6.68	0.308		87.1	4.62	7.9	0.398		88.7	2.54	8.32	0.461	13.2
Tottenham	-	West Brom		81.7	11.1	6.83	0.319		87.4	4.14	8.03	0.41		88.9	2.29	8.31	0.469	10.8
Arsenal	-	Crystal Palace		82.1	8.1	9.46	0.325		87.3	9.1	3.21	0.414		88.5	9.25	1.77	0.461	9.35
Arsenal	-	West Brom		82.3	8.06	9.35	0.332		87.3	9.16	3.12	0.422		88.3	9.5	1.74	0.424	9.06
Arsenal	-	Norwich		82.5	8.16	9.02	0.342		87.5	9.13	2.95	0.4		88.6	9.37	1.6	0.42	7.98
Arsenal	-	Aston Villa		82.8	8.19	8.7	0.346		87.5	9.19	2.91	0.412		88.6	9.46	1.51	0.401	6.67
Chelsea	-	Man City		84.1	8.5	7.38	0.053		84.1	8.48	7.3	0.154		83.6	8.33	7.15	0.911	2.05

Points	Leicester		Tottenham		Arsenal		Man City
87	0.394	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	1.47	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
84	2.72	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
83	2.15	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
82	7.67	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
81	8.2	100	-	-	-	-	-	-
80	8.39	99.2	0.909	76.4	-	-	-	-
79	14.6	97.6	-	-	1.62	67.4	-	-
78	11.7	94.9	2.83	53.1	-	-	-	-
77	10.7	87	4.28	40.3	4.48	39.2	-	-
76	11.8	77.8	3.64	28.5	6.28	28.1	-	-
75	7.42	64.4	10.5	16.9	4.96	16	1.03	16.1
74	5.33	47.3	9.77	9.68	13.2	8.85	-	-
73	4.15	33.3	10.1	4.52	11	4.29	3.19	3.89
72	1.86	19.1	14.7	1.57	11	1.46	3.95	1.2
71	0.856	9.87	10.9	0.508	13.8	0.464	4.07	0.332
70	0.474	4.38	9.62	0.128	9.39	0.114	10	0.0708
69	0.103	1.84	9.29	0.0172	8.15	0.0123	8.85	0.00678