CL: Matchday 4

Arsenal turned around an early 2-0 deficit against Bulgaria, which
secured a spot in last 16. PSG also secured a spot and now this group
is only about who will win the group.

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	10	12-3	Arsenal
100%	4	10	9-3	Paris SG
0%	4	1	2-8	Basel
0%	4	1	4-13	Razgrad

In Istanbul Besiktas scored a late (78th) and important 1-0 goal
against Napoli, but Napoli responded with an equally important equalizer a
few minutes later to stay ahead of Besiktas. Benfica did their job and this is now a three-horse-race.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
81%	4	7	9-7	Napoli	97% if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 65%
76%	4	7	6-5	Benfica	94% if they draw (or win) against Besiktas; otherwise 40%
40%	4	6	6-5	Besiktas	84% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 18%
3%	4	1	2-6	Dynamo Kyiv	14% if they win against Napoli; otherwise 0%

Barcelona had the opportunity to secure a spot in last 16 against Man
City, but Man City came back after an early Messi goal and won
3-1. Gladbach failed to win againt Celtic, and most likely lost their
chance (P = 1%) to finish top 2 in this group.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.8%	4	9	14-4	Barcelona	qualified if they draw (or win) against Gladbach; otherwise 97%
98.4%	4	7	10-8	Man City	99.86% if they win against Celtic; otherwise 93%
1%	4	4	4-7	Gladbach	6% if they draw (or win) against Barcelona; otherwise 0.1%
0.3%	4	2	4-13	Celtic	4% if they win against Man City; otherwise 0%

Both Bayern and Atletico won as expected and will most likely take the
top 2 spots.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.92%	3	9	3-0	Atletico
98.2%	3	6	9-2	Bayern	99.7% if they draw (or win) against PSV; otherwise 92%
1%	3	1	3-7	PSV	6% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0.06%
0.6%	3	1	2-8	Rostov	3% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0.03%

Possible Last 16 match-ups:

Winner \ Runner-up

Barc

Leic

Atle

Real

Arse

Juve

Sevi

Napo

Benf

Mona

Pari

Tott

Dort

Baye

Leve

Besi

Port

Man

CSKA

FC K

Lyon

Spor

Glad

PSV

Dina

Rost

Brug

Legi

Dyna

Celt

Total

Barcelon

2%

7%

6%

5%

4%

4%

9%

5%

11%

11%

3%

3%

7%

2%

5%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

92%

Leiceste

1%

3%

4%

7%

10%

5%

4%

4%

8%

11%

12%

3%

3%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

85%

Atletico

1%

5%

5%

4%

3%

3%

7%

4%

8%

3%

2%

6%

15%

1%

4%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

81%

Real Mad

1%

5%

5%

4%

3%

3%

7%

4%

8%

3%

2%

6%

14%

1%

4%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

79%

Arsenal

<1%

2%

2%

4%

6%

3%

3%

2%

7%

8%

2%

2%

4%

1%

3%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

59%

Juventus

<1%

1%

1%

1%

3%

2%

2%

4%

2%

5%

5%

1%

1%

3%

8%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

51%

Sevilla

1%

3%

2%

2%

2%

4%

2%

5%

5%

1%

1%

3%

8%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

47%

Napoli

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

1%

3%

2%

4%

4%

1%

2%

7%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

43%

Benfica

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

1%

3%

2%

4%

4%

1%

7%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

42%

Monaco

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

4%

2%

1%

4%

4%

1%

2%

7%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

41%

Paris SG

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

2%

1%

2%

4%

4%

1%

1%

2%

6%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

40%

Tottenha

<1%

1%

1%

3%

4%

2%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1%

3%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

37%

Dortmund

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

3%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

20%

Bayern

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

3%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

18%

Leverkus

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

14%

Besiktas

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

13%

Porto

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

9%

Man City

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

6%

CSKA Mos

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

6%

FC Koben

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

5%

Lyon

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Sporting

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Gladbach

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

PSV

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Dinamo Z

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Rostov

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Brugge

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Legia

<1%

<1%

Total

6%

12%

18%

19%

40%

46%

47%

36%

33%

29%

59%

29%

76%

79%

25%

26%

49%

91%

14%

36%

6%

3%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

2%

<1%

Each row represent a group winner and each column a group runner-up. Teams from the same group or same country cannot meet in second round.