Brazil won the Clash of Giants against Argentina with a stunning 3-0. The other big clash finished goalless between Colombia and Chile. Uruguay took an important victory against Ecuador and now have 98% chance to qualify according to the model. Chile and Argentina, the finalist of the this year's Copa America, are now in somewhat of a problematic position.
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| Group | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Brazil | 11 | +17 | 24 | 36.1 | 99% | 99% |
| Uruguay | 11 | +15 | 23 | 33.3 | 98.3% | 97.9% |
| Colombia | 11 | +3 | 18 | 30.0 | 84.3% | 83.2% |
| Ecuador | 11 | +3 | 17 | 26.1 | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| -------------------- |
| Argentina | 11 | -1 | 16 | 31.4 | 92.4% | 92.3% |
| ======== |
| Chile | 11 | -1 | 15 | 29.1 | 80.2% | 79.5% |
| Paraguay | 11 | -5 | 15 | 22.1 | 5.1% | 4.4% |
| Peru | 11 | -5 | 11 | 20.6 | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Bolivia | 11 | -14 | 8 | 11.5 | <0.01% | <0.01% |
| Venezuela | 11 | -12 | 5 | 10.1 |
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