World Cup: South America

Colombia won the key match away against Ecuador. Colombia now have a predicted chance of 97% (+13) to qualify, while Ecuador are in trouble (12%, -15) having Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and Peru left to play.

Group	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Brazil	14	+25	33	40.0	100%	100%
Colombia	14	+3	24	31.3	98.2%	97.3%
Uruguay	14	+9	23	29.9	97.2%	95.0%
Argentina	14	+1	22	30.8	96.5%	96.2%
--------------------
Chile	14	+2	21	29.5	93.2%	92.4%
========
Ecuador	14	+3	20	24.0	12.5%	11.5%
Paraguay	14	-8	18	21.8	2.0%	1.6%
Peru	14	-6	15	20.2	0.48%	0.43%
Bolivia	14	-12	14	15.7	0.00%	0.00%
Venezuela	14	-17	6	9.1	-

World Cup: Asia

No surprises when the top 3 teams won in both groups.

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Iran	7	+6	17	22.2	99.9%	99%	99%
South Korea	7	+2	13	18.2	97.9%	92.7%	87.9%
--------------------
Uzbekistan	7	+2	12	15.4	85.3%	57.6%	39.9%
========
Syria	7	-1	8	11.6	12.8%	4.7%	1.9%
China	7	-4	5	8.8	3.2%	1.3%	0.48%
Qatar	7	-5	4	7.7	0.90%	0.35%	0.12%

In group A Iran is most likely taking one of the two spots while South Korea and Uzbekistan

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Japan	7	+9	16	21.5	99%	96.5%	94.4%
Saudi Arabia	7	+8	16	18.6	95.0%	63.0%	52.8%
--------------------
Australia	7	+5	13	18.6	96.7%	80.7%	71.4%
========
United Arab Em	7	-3	9	13.6	8.6%	3.7%	2.0%
Iraq	7	-3	4	7.5	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
Thailand	7	-16	1	4.2	-

In Group B Australia won the important match against UAE, keeping some distance down to UAE and challenging Japan and Saudi on the top 2 spots. Australia play Saudi Arabia in next round where Saudi Arabia can virtually secure qualification.

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
84%	53%	34%	Australia	-	Saudi Arabia	37.2%	74%	97%	208.387

World Cup: Europe

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
France	5	+7	13	24.6	99%	97.4%
--------------------
Sweden	5	+7	10	17.4	36.7%	17.7%
========
Bulgaria	5	-2	9	14.3	5.6%	1.5%
Netherlands	5	+2	7	17.8	49.1%	35.8%
Belarus	5	-8	2	8.0	0.03%	0.01%
Luxembourg	5	-6	1	2.6	-

Netherlands surprisingly lost against Bulgaria and dropping from 59% to 36%. They are still the favourites to take the second spot behind France, but the gap is decreasing, and the "average taken points" is only 0.4 more for Netherlands than Sweden. Sweden doubled their chances from 9% to 18%.

In June, Sweden hosts France in an important match where France can 99% secure their ticket to Russia if they win and Sweden can bump up 33% if they win.

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
34%	17.4%	11.0%	Sweden	-	France	92%	98%	99%	56.6896

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Switzerland	5	+7	15	25.3	99%	75.9%
--------------------
Portugal	5	+16	12	24.3	99%	86.9%
========
Hungary	5	+2	7	16.7	2.7%	1.2%
Faroe Islands	5	-6	5	8.8	-
Latvia	5	-7	3	9.3	0.00%	0.00%
Andorra	5	-12	1	1.7	-

Both Portugal and Switzerland won and nothing really changed in this group.

Group C	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Germany	5	+19	15	27.7	99.99%	99.9%
--------------------
Northern Irela	5	+8	10	17.8	50.8%	13.9%
========
Czechia	5	+4	8	16.4	26.0%	9.6%
Azerbaijan	5	-5	7	12.0	0.65%	0.04%
Norway	5	-4	3	11.6	0.38%	0.10%
San Marino	5	-22	0	0.4	-

Norway did not take their last chance, but lost against Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland and Czechia fighting about the playoff spot behind Germany.

Group D	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Serbia	5	+6	11	19.6	72.6%	52.6%
--------------------
Ireland	5	+4	11	20.3	78.1%	61.5%
========
Wales	5	+4	7	16.3	28.3%	18.3%
Austria	5	+1	7	15.0	12.3%	6.8%
Georgia	5	-4	2	6.1	0.01%	0.00%
Moldova	5	-11	1	3.9	0.00%	0.00%

Ireland and Wales drew in Dublin in an important match. In June, Wales travel to Serbia for another important match while Ireland host Austria. A lot of this group will be decided on 11 June.

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
71%	50%	30.8%	Serbia	-	Wales	5.3%	15.4%	37%	158.778
74%	55%	38%	Ireland	-	Austria	1.7%	5.7%	19.8%	108.482

Group E	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Poland	5	+6	13	23.4	99%	96.9%
--------------------
Montenegro	5	+4	7	12.9	9.2%	2.2%
========
Denmark	5	+2	7	15.8	36.2%	17.5%
Romania	5	+2	6	14.1	21.7%	9.1%
Armenia	5	-4	6	10.7	1.4%	0.27%
Kazakhstan	5	-10	2	6.0	0.03%	0.00%

Poland most likely grabs the first place. Denmark and Romania are favourites to grab the second spot, with advantage Denmark after a scoreless match in Romania.

Group F	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
England	5	+8	13	24.6	99%	97.3%
--------------------
Slovakia	5	+7	9	17.9	55.8%	27.5%
========
Slovenia	5	+1	8	15.3	12.3%	3.5%
Scotland	5	-1	7	15.6	17.5%	7.1%
Lithuania	5	-4	5	9.4	0.18%	0.02%
Malta	5	-11	0	1.7	-

England likely take the first place while Slovakia are favourites to grab a playoff spot.

Group G	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Spain	5	+17	13	24.8	99%	89.3%
--------------------
Italy	5	+9	13	24.5	99%	85.1%
========
Israel	5	0	9	15.7	1.4%	0.41%
Albania	5	-4	6	12.8	0.12%	0.04%
Macedonia	5	-4	3	7.6	0.00%	0.00%
Liechtenstein	5	-18	0	1.4	-

Giants, Spain and Italy, are fighting about the first spot in this group. Both won comfortably and nothing really changed the last week. Group will be decided in September when Spain and Italy play in Madrid.

Group H	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Belgium	5	+20	13	24.4	96.8%	92.2%
--------------------
Greece	5	+7	11	19.2	36.1%	13.3%
========
Bosnia and Her	5	+8	10	20.3	65.3%	35.4%
Cyprus	5	-5	4	8.9	0.01%	0.00%
Estonia	5	-10	4	10.0	0.06%	0.01%
Gibraltar	5	-20	0	1.7	-

Greece managed to steal a point from Belgium giving them some light. Bosnia and Herzegovina took an easy win against Gibraltar and still favourites to take the second spot behind Belgium. Much of that will be decided in June when Greece travel to Zenica for an important match.

Group I	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Croatia	5	+10	13	22.2	93.1%	86.4%
--------------------
Iceland	5	+2	10	18.1	45.2%	26.1%
========
Ukraine	5	+3	8	15.5	18.4%	9.9%
Turkey	5	+2	8	17.0	33.8%	21.7%
Finland	5	-5	1	6.3	0.01%	0.00%
Kosovo	5	-12	1	3.9	0.00%	0.00%

Tight group with Croatia, Iceland, Turkey, and Ukraine fighting about the two spots. Croatia won against Ukraine making them even more favourites to grab the first spot. In June, Croatia travel to Reykjavik for an early group final.

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
44%	21.0%	12.6%	Iceland	-	Croatia	73%	89%	97%	117.094

World Cup: South America

Argentina won the important match against Chile (1-0), while Brazil hammered Uruguay in a top table match. Brazil is now virtually qualified and Argentina and Uruguay are likely to join them. Colombia, Ecuador and Chile are fighting about the remaining 1 1/2 tickets with Ecuador and Colombia playing already Tuesday next week.

 Important Match

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
46%	20.8%	10.3%	Ecuador	-	Colombia	69%	87%	97%	123.736

Group	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Brazil	13	+22	30	39.3	99.99%	99.99%
Uruguay	13	+10	23	31.1	97.1%	95.9%
Argentina	13	+3	22	33.3	99%	99%
Colombia	13	+1	21	29.7	85.3%	83.7%
--------------------
Ecuador	13	+5	20	25.4	28.3%	26.5%
========
Chile	13	0	18	29.1	86.7%	85.8%
Paraguay	13	-5	18	22.3	3.4%	2.8%
Peru	13	-7	12	18.7	0.28%	0.25%
Bolivia	13	-14	11	13.0	0.00%	0.00%
Venezuela	13	-15	6	9.3	-

World Cup: Asian qualifications

Syria won the important match against Uzbekistan and South Korea surprisingly lost against China. Iran and South Korea remain the favourites to grab the two direct tickets, while Syria are challenging Uzbekistan about the play off tickets.

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Iran	6	+5	14	21.4	99%	99%	98.1%
South Korea	6	+1	10	17.7	94.8%	90.5%	86.4%
--------------------
Uzbekistan	6	+1	9	14.4	70.8%	48.8%	34.5%
========
Syria	6	0	8	12.0	22.0%	9.8%	5.3%
China	6	-3	5	9.4	7.7%	3.5%	1.6%
Qatar	6	-4	4	8.5	5.1%	2.3%	1.1%

In Group B, Australia failed to win away against Iraq. Japan and Saudi Arabia won their matches against UAE and Thailand, respectively. Next week Australia take on UAE in Sydney, which they need to win to be able to challenge Saudi and Japan about a top-two position and direct qualification. Saudi and Japan both have home games, against Iraq and Thailand, respectively, which they are predicted to win.

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Saudi Arabia	6	+7	13	17.5	85.0%	59.7%	50.4%
Japan	6	+5	13	21.0	99%	95.7%	93.4%
--------------------
Australia	6	+3	10	17.7	88.0%	74.9%	66.4%
========
United Arab Em	6	-1	9	14.2	27.1%	15.5%	10.9%
Iraq	6	-2	4	8.4	1.1%	0.35%	0.15%
Thailand	6	-12	1	4.6	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

 Important Matches

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
78%	56%	33%	Australia	-	United Arab Emirates	3.9%	12.5%	37%	140.921
91%	76%	59%	South Korea	-	Syria	2.3%	8.6%	28%	77.8271
63%	41%	30%	Saudi Arabia	-	Iraq	0.00%	0.02%	0.7%	60.1643
43.1%	26%	16.0%	Uzbekistan	-	Qatar	0.10%	1.0%	4.5%	55.1121

CL: quarterfinals draw

Here are the predictions of the quarterfinals with difference compared with predictions before the draw in brackets.

Team	Semifinal	Final	Champion
Atletico	81% (+18)	47%	23%
Barcelona	69% (+2)	43%	22%
Real Madrid	58% (-11)	38%	19%
Bayern	42% (-20)	25%	13%
Dortmund	67% (+27)	21%	10%
Juventus	31% (-17)	15%	7%
Monaco	33% (-9)	6%	3%
Leicester	19% (-10)	5%	3%

CL: Round of 16

After round of 16 completed, we can notice again that this round rarely gives us any big upsets. This year all favourites passed on the quarterfinals except Sevilla who lost to Leicester. Leicester had a predicted 45% chance to win, which is not much of a surprise.

Here are the predictions for the next rounds (as before quarterfinals draw):

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Winner
Real Madrid	100%	69%	44%	26%
Barcelona	100%	67%	41%	23%
Atletico	100%	63%	36%	19%
Bayern	100%	62%	34%	17%
Juventus	100%	48%	20%	8%
Dortmund	100%	40%	13%	4%
Leicester	100%	29%	7%	2%
Monaco	100%	24%	5%	1%

CL: Round of 16

With first week of the second legs played we have the following predictions:

Team	QF	Semis	Final	Win Final
Real Madrid	100%	67%	43%	25%
Barcelona	100%	65%	40%	23%
Atletico	99%	60%	34%	18%
Bayern	100%	60%	33%	17%
Juventus	97%	44%	18%	7%
Dortmund	100%	37%	12%	4%
Man City	83%	32%	11%	4%
Sevilla	64%	20%	5%	2%
Leicester	36%	10%	2%	<1%
Monaco	17%	4%	<1%	<1%
Porto	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Leverkusen	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%