CL: Match Day 5

After five matches we have three teams that have clinched group win: Tottenham, Barcelona and Man City. We have additional six teams that have clinched a place in round of 16: Man United, Paris SG, Bayern, Chelsea, Besiktas, and Real Madrid. Thirteen teams fight about the remaining 7 places in second round.


Group A

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	12	10-2	Man United
75%	5	9	9-5	Basel	qualified if Man United win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 23%
25%	5	9	7-8	CSKA Moskva	77% if they draw (or win) against Man United; otherwise 0%
0%	5	0	1-12	Benfica

Basel scored a very important goal in the last minutes against Man United. Basel play Benfica in last match away while United host Moskva.

If Basel win and Moskva win we have three teams on 12 points and goal difference in head-to-head matches will decide:

Man United +5
Basel -1
Moskva -4

If Basel and Moskva don't win but take same number of points (both draw or lose), Basel come second on better result in head-to-head.

Group B

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	15	24-1	Paris SG
100%	5	12	10-5	Bayern
0%	5	3	5-17	Celtic
0%	5	0	1-17	Anderlecht

Bayern and Paris have clinched spot in round of 16. Bayern need to win with 4-0 in the last match against PSG to win the group.

Group C

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	10	14-7	Chelsea
94%	5	8	8-6	Roma	qualified if they win against Qarabag; otherwise 69%
6%	5	6	4-3	Atletico	31% if Qarabag draw (or win) against Roma; otherwise 0%
0%	5	2	2-12	Qarabag

Chelsea have clineched spot in knockout stage. Atletico need to win away against Chelsea while Roma do not win against Qarabag.

Group D

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	11	7-1	Barcelona
97%	5	8	5-5	Juventus	qualified if Barcelona draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 57%
3%	5	7	8-7	Sporting	43% if they win against Barcelona; otherwise 0%
0%	5	1	4-11	Olympiakos

Barcelona have won the group. Sporting can steal the second spot from Juve if they beat Barcelona and Juventus fail to win against Olymoiakos.

Winner \ Runner-up	Man	Pari	Live	Chel	Roma	Sevi	Baye	Spar	CSKA	Base	Atle	Juve	Spor	Port	RB L	Napo	Shak	Real	Total
Tottenham		1%			9%	14%	13%	1%	3%	10%	1%	15%	<1%	8%	5%	2%	11%		100%
Besiktas	<1%	1%	1%	6%	8%	13%	11%	<1%	3%	9%	1%	13%	<1%			2%	10%	15%	99%
Barcelona	<1%	1%	2%	10%	13%		16%	1%	4%	13%				10%	7%	3%	14%		100%
Man City		1%			8%	14%	12%	1%	3%	10%	1%	14%	<1%	7%	5%			17%	100%
Man United		1%			8%	14%	12%	1%			1%	14%	<1%	8%	5%	2%	11%	17%	99%
Paris SG	<1%		1%	6%	8%	12%		<1%	2%	8%	1%	12%	<1%	6%	4%	2%	9%	14%	91%
Liverpool		1%			7%		10%		2%	8%	<1%	12%	<1%	6%	4%	2%	9%	14%	84%
Chelsea		<1%				10%	9%	<1%	2%	7%		10%	<1%	5%	4%	2%	7%	12%	74%
Roma	<1%	<1%	<1%			4%	3%	<1%	<1%	3%			<1%	2%	1%		3%	4%	25%
Sevilla	<1%	<1%		1%	1%		1%		<1%	1%		1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	1%		12%
Bayern	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	1%	8%
Spartak Mosk		<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	3%
CSKA Moskva		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%				<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Total	<1%	8%	5%	25%	67%	86%	91%	7%	24%	75%	7%	96%	3%	59%	40%	19%	80%	99%

CL: Match Day 5

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
88%	5	9	16-6	Liverpool	qualified if they draw (or win) against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 12%
98.4%	5	8	11-11	Sevilla	qualified if Liverpool draw (or win) against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 88%
14%	5	6	9-6	Spartak Moskva	qualified if they win against Liverpool; otherwise 0%
0%	5	2	2-15	Maribor

Liverpool and Sevilla clinch qualification if Liverpool take point against Moskva. If Moskva win against Liverpool, Moskva pass Liverpool in head-to-head. If Sevilla draw so we get three teams on 9 points, we gethead-to-head table:

7p Moskva
5p Sevilla    
3p Liverpool

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	15	13-3	Man City
77%	5	9	7-8	Shakhtar	qualified if they draw (or win) against Man City; otherwise 43%
23%	5	6	10-9	Napoli	57% if Man City win against Shakhtar; otherwise 0%
0%	5	0	3-13	Feyenoord

Napoli clinch qualification if they win against Feyernord and Man City win against Shakhtar.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	11	9-4	Besiktas
56%	5	7	10-8	Porto	qualified if they win against Monaco; otherwise 33%
44%	5	7	9-9	RB Leipzig	67% if Monaco draw (or win) against Porto; otherwise 0%
0%	5	2	4-11	Monaco

Porto need to take as many points as Leipzig do.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	13	12-3	Tottenham
100%	5	10	14-5	Real Madrid
0%	5	2	4-10	Dortmund
0%	5	2	2-14	APOEL

Tottenham have won the group. Real Madrid have clinched qualification. Dortmund and APOEL fight about third place Europa Leage spot.

Table showing probability for different matchups in round of 16

Winner \ Runner-up	Man	Barc	Pari	Live	Chel	Roma	Sevi	Baye	Juve	Spar	Atle	Base	Benf	CSKA	Qara	Spor	Olym	Real	Shak	Napo	Port	RB L	Total
Besiktas	<1%	1%	1%	1%	10%	6%	12%	10%	12%	1%	1%	6%	<1%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	15%	9%	2%			100%
Man City		1%	1%			7%	14%	11%	14%	1%	1%	7%	<1%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%	17%			7%	6%	100%
Tottenham		1%	1%			7%	14%	12%	14%	1%	1%	7%	<1%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%		11%	3%	8%	6%	100%
Man United		1%	1%			6%	14%	12%	14%	1%	1%				<1%	<1%	<1%	17%	11%	3%	7%	6%	99%
Barcelona	<1%		2%	2%	14%	9%		13%		1%		8%	<1%	7%	<1%				12%	3%	8%	7%	90%
Paris SG	<1%	<1%		1%	9%	6%	10%		10%	<1%	1%	5%	<1%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%	13%	8%	2%	5%	4%	86%
Liverpool		1%	1%			5%		9%	11%		1%	6%	<1%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	13%	8%	2%	6%	5%	79%
Chelsea		<1%	1%				7%	6%	6%	<1%		3%	<1%	3%		<1%	<1%	8%	5%	1%	3%	3%	53%
Roma	<1%	<1%	1%	1%			7%	5%		<1%		3%	<1%	3%		<1%	<1%	8%	5%		4%	3%	45%
Sevilla	<1%		<1%		2%	1%		1%	2%			1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		1%	<1%	1%	1%	14%
Bayern	<1%	<1%		<1%	1%	1%	1%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%		13%
Juventus	<1%		<1%	<1%	1%		1%	1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%			1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	9%
Spartak Mosk		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	5%
Atletico			<1%	<1%				<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%
Basel				<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%							<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Total	<1%	8%	13%	7%	40%	52%	83%	86%	89%	8%	7%	52%	<1%	46%	<1%	2%	<1%	100%	78%	21%	56%	43%

CL: Match Day 4 - Possible Last 16 Matches

Table below shows possible matchups in the last 16 stage.

Winner \ Runner-up

Man

Man

Tott

Besi

Barc

Pari

Live

Chel

Roma

Sevi

Baye

Juve

Port

Real

Spar

Shak

Atle

RB L

Base

Qara

Spor

Olym

Mona

APOE

Napo

Dort

Benf

CSKA

Total

Man United

1%

1%

2%

7%

9%

12%

15%

9%

17%

3%

13%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

<1%

1%

<1%

99%

Man City

1%

1%

2%

6%

8%

12%

14%

9%

17%

3%

1%

1%

7%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

<1%

<1%

<1%

6%

96%

Tottenham

1%

1%

2%

6%

8%

12%

14%

8%

2%

12%

1%

1%

7%

<1%

<1%

<1%

2%

1%

<1%

6%

92%

Besiktas

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

6%

10%

5%

6%

9%

10%

12%

2%

9%

1%

5%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

5%

92%

Barcelona

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

7%

13%

7%

11%

8%

3%

12%

1%

7%

<1%

2%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

6%

91%

Paris SG

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

5%

9%

5%

6%

9%

6%

12%

2%

9%

1%

1%

5%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

4%

85%

Liverpool

<1%

<1%

1%

4%

7%

8%

5%

9%

7%

<1%

1%

4%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

4%

61%

Chelsea

<1%

<1%

1%

4%

6%

6%

4%

8%

1%

6%

<1%

3%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

50%

Roma

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

4%

4%

5%

4%

8%

1%

5%

<1%

3%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

47%

Sevilla

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

4%

2%

4%

4%

3%

4%

<1%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

2%

32%

Bayern

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

14%

Juventus

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

8%

Porto

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

7%

Real Madrid

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

7%

Spartak Mosk

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

5%

Shakhtar

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

Atletico

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

RB Leipzig

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Basel

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Total

<1%

3%

7%

7%

7%

14%

27%

42%

49%

51%

85%

89%

62%

91%

21%

86%

7%

11%

52%

<1%

2%

<1%

18%

<1%

10%

<1%

<1%

47%

CL: Match Day 4

Five team: Man United, PSG, Bayern, Man City, and Tottenham clinched spots in knockout stage.

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	12	10-1	Man United
52%	4	6	8-5	Basel	85% if Benfica win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 35%
47%	4	6	5-8	CSKA Moskva	65% if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 15%
0.3%	4	0	1-10	Benfica

Moskva took their chances and won against Basel.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	12	17-0	Paris SG
100%	4	9	8-4	Bayern
0%	4	3	4-10	Celtic
0%	4	0	0-15	Anderlecht

Group B is closed.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98%	4	8	8-4	Roma	qualified if they win against Qarabag; otherwise 89%
94%	4	7	10-7	Chelsea	qualified if they win against Qarabag; otherwise 79%
8%	4	3	2-3	Atletico	24% if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 0%
0.3%	4	2	2-8	Qarabag	4% if they win against Roma; otherwise 0%

Atletico failed to win against Qarabag and are therefore in trouble. Roma and Chelsea clinch group-stage spot, if they take two points against Qarabag and Atletico.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.3%	4	10	7-1	Barcelona	qualified if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 91%
98.2%	4	7	5-5	Juventus	99.8% if Barcelona win against Sporting; otherwise 92%
2%	4	4	5-6	Sporting	24% if they win against Barcelona; otherwise 0.4%
0.2%	4	1	3-8	Olympiakos	1% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 0%

Barcelona has virtually clinched qualification and only need another point in two last matches. Juventus won against Sporting and nearly clinched the second spot.

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
92%	4	8	13-3	Liverpool	99.7% if they draw (or win) against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 36%
87%	4	7	8-8	Sevilla	98.2% if they win against Maribor; otherwise 66%
22%	4	5	8-5	Spartak Moskva	92% if they win against Liverpool; otherwise 11%
0%	4	1	1-14	Maribor

Maribor are out while other three teams fight about two spots.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	12	12-3	Man City
89%	4	9	7-5	Shakhtar	qualified if they draw (or win) against Man City; otherwise 66%
11%	4	3	7-9	Napoli	34% if Man City win against Shakhtar; otherwise 0%
0%	4	0	3-12	Feyenoord

Man City clinched advancement with a win against Napoli. For Napoli the loss means they are in trouble and need to win the remaining two matches to qualify. For Shakhtar another point is sufficient.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.6%	4	10	8-3	Besiktas	qualified if Monaco draw (or win) against RB Leipzig; otherwise 97%
69%	4	6	9-7	Porto	94% if they draw (or win) against Monaco; otherwise 34%
11%	4	4	5-8	RB Leipzig	35% if they draw (or win) against Monaco; otherwise 0%
20%	4	2	3-7	Monaco	48% if they win against Porto; otherwise 0%

Group G is still very open. Besiktas only needs one more point, while Porto, Leipzig and Monaco are very open.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	10	10-2	Tottenham
99.3%	4	7	8-5	Real Madrid	qualified if they draw (or win) against Dortmund; otherwise 93%
0.6%	4	2	3-8	Dortmund	6% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0%
0.1%	4	2	2-8	APOEL	1% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0%

Tottenham clinched group stage with their win against Real Madrid. Real Madrid have virtually secured group stage as well but need a draw against Dortmund or a win against APOEL.