PL: Liverpool with a last-minute winner

Liverpool and Man City have clinched a spot in Champions League next autumn. The title race is tight and Man City are slight favorites.

Expected Outcome
Team	Points	Expected +/-	Champ%	Top4%
Liverpool	92.4	86-24	47.6	100
Man City	92.2	97-27	52.4	100
Tottenham	75.8	74-41	0	72.5
Arsenal	75.2	79-48	0	62.7
Man United	73.6	73-49	0	36.9
Chelsea	72.9	66-42	0	27.9

Tottenham lost away against Liverpool but didn't lose much space. In the simulation they took on average 0.9 points. They have more than 90% chance, if they take 16 (of 21) more points.

Arsenal have more than 90% chance, if they take 17 (of 24) more points.

Man United have more than 50% chance, if they take 14 (of 21) more points.

Chelsea have more than 50% chance, if they take 16 (of 21) more points.

Euro '20: Predictions after Match Day 2

Match Day 3 and 4 will be played in June. Turkey will play Iceland in a crucial match in Group H. Montenegro will play a key match for them against Czechia in Group A and Ukraine and Serbia play a key match in the three-team group B.

Group A	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
England (P)	2	6	99.86%	96.1%	99.70%	100%
Bulgaria	2	2	28%	< 1%	17%	99.52%	50% if they win against Czechia; otherwise 23%
Kosovo (P)	1	1	19%	< 1%	4.8%	100%	27% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 18%
Montenegro	2	1	15%	< 1%	15%	15%	29% if they draw (or win) against Czechia; otherwise 7%
Czechia	1	0	72%	3.0%	64%	99.86%	81% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 59%

(P) Clinched playoff

Group B	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Ukraine (H)	2	4	73%	27%	59%	100%	87% if they win against Serbia; otherwise 62%
Luxembourg	2	3	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	2% if Macedonia win against Austria; otherwise 0.9%
Portugal (H)	2	2	91%	41%	78%	100%	94% if Luxembourg draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 91%
Serbia (P)	1	1	77%	31%	63%	100%	92% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 71%
Lithuania	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

Group C	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Northern Ireland	2	6	18%	1.5%	10%	93%	24% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 15%
Germany	1	3	98.6%	73%	97.2%	>99.99%	99.2% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 97%
Netherlands (P)	2	3	96.8%	25%	92%	100%	98% if Estonia draw (or win) against Northern Ireland; otherwise 95%
Estonia	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus (P)	2	0	23%	< 1%	< 1%	100%

(P) Clinched playoff

Group D	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Ireland	2	6	40%	9%	28%	98.6%	71% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 36%
Switzerland (H)	2	4	94%	46%	88%	100%
Denmark (P)	1	1	92%	45%	83%	100%	96% if they win against Ireland; otherwise 82%
Gibraltar	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia (H)	2	0	37%	< 1%	< 1%	100%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

Group E	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Wales	1	3	74%	29%	64%	99.98%	85% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 65%
Slovakia	2	3	55%	14%	40%	99.66%	60% if they win against Azerbaijan; otherwise 44%
Hungary	2	3	23%	4.0%	16%	83%	38% if they win against Wales; otherwise 16%
Croatia	2	3	91%	53%	80%	>99.99%	94% if they win against Wales; otherwise 84%
Azerbaijan	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 0.2%

Group F	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Spain (P)	2	6	98.5%	79%	96.0%	100%	99.3% if they win against Sweden; otherwise 97%
Sweden (P)	2	4	85%	17%	75%	100%	95% if they win against Spain; otherwise 84%
Romania	2	3	30%	3.1%	21%	59%	42% if they win against Norway; otherwise 24%
Malta	2	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Norway (H)	2	1	36%	< 1%	8%	100%	40% if they win against Romania; otherwise 33%
Faroe Islands	2	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

Group G	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Poland	2	6	95%	78%	93%	>99.99%	97% if they win against Israel; otherwise 89%
Israel	2	4	31%	6%	26%	95.5%	53% if they win against Poland; otherwise 28%
Macedonia (H)	2	4	38%	2.4%	13%	100%	50% if they win against Austria; otherwise 35%
Slovenia	2	2	12%	2.1%	12%	12%	33% if they win against Austria; otherwise 9.1%
Austria	2	0	69%	12%	56%	>99.99%	78% if they win against Macedonia; otherwise 59%
Latvia	2	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff

Group H	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
France (P)	2	6	99.95%	96.5%	99.84%	100%
Turkey	2	6	71%	2.9%	65%	99.70%	85% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 55%
Albania	2	3	2.4%	< 1%	2.4%	2.7%	8% if they win against Iceland; otherwise 1%
Iceland	2	3	46%	< 1%	33%	99.83%	61% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 32%
Andorra	2	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	2	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(P) Clinched playoff

Group I	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Belgium (P)	2	6	99.88%	95.2%	99.65%	100%
Russia	2	3	80%	3.6%	73%	>99.99%	83% if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 70%
Kazakhstan	2	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Cyprus	2	3	1.3%	< 1%	1.3%	1.3%	5% if they draw (or win) against Russia; otherwise 0.5%
Scotland (H)	2	3	55%	1.2%	26%	100%	56% if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 48%
San Marino (E)	2	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

Group J	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Italy	2	6	96.7%	74%	94%	>99.99%	98.8% if they win against Greece; otherwise 94%
Greece	2	4	20%	3.4%	20%	21%	37% if they win against Italy; otherwise 15%
Bosnia and Herzegovina (H)	2	4	79%	19%	66%	100%	88% if they win against Finland; otherwise 71%
Finland (P)	2	3	32%	2.9%	21%	100%	50% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 25%
Armenia	2	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	1% if they win against Greece; otherwise 0.2%
Liechtenstein	2	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
D	Switzerland (H)	88%	12%	12%	12%
B	Portugal (H)	78%	22%	22%	22%	94% if Luxembourg draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 91%
C	Netherlands (P)	92%	8%	8%	8%	98% if Estonia draw (or win) against Northern Ireland; otherwise 95%
A	England (P)	99.70%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Belgium (P)	99.65%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	France (P)	99.84%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Spain (P)	96.0%	4.0%	3.9%	3.8%	99.3% if they win against Sweden; otherwise 97%
J	Italy	94%	6%	6%	6%	98.8% if they win against Greece; otherwise 94%
E	Croatia	80%	20%	20%	18%	94% if they win against Wales; otherwise 84%
G	Poland	93%	7%	7%	6%	97% if they win against Israel; otherwise 89%
C	Germany	97.2%	2.8%	2.8%	2.4%	99.2% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 97%
H	Iceland	33%	67%	67%	54%	61% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 32%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina (H)	66%	34%	34%	34%	88% if they win against Finland; otherwise 71%
B	Ukraine (H)	59%	41%	41%	41%	87% if they win against Serbia; otherwise 62%
D	Denmark (P)	83%	17%	17%	14%	96% if they win against Ireland; otherwise 82%
F	Sweden (P)	75%	25%	25%	20%	95% if they win against Spain; otherwise 84%
I	Russia	73%	27%	17%	20%	83% if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 70%
G	Austria	56%	44%	28%	30%	78% if they win against Macedonia; otherwise 59%
E	Wales	64%	36%	25%	21%	85% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 65%
A	Czechia	64%	36%	23%	17%	81% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 59%
E	Slovakia	40%	60%	42%	27%	60% if they win against Azerbaijan; otherwise 44%
H	Turkey	65%	35%	22%	12%	85% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 55%
D	Ireland	28%	70%	51%	11%	71% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 36%
C	Northern Ireland	10%	83%	60%	7%	24% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 15%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
I	Scotland (H)	26%	74%	74%	74%	56% if they win against Cyprus; otherwise 48%
F	Norway (H)	8%	92%	92%	92%	40% if they win against Romania; otherwise 33%
B	Serbia (P)	63%	37%	37%	12%	92% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 71%
J	Finland (P)	21%	79%	79%	16%	50% if they win against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 25%
A	Bulgaria	17%	83%	39%	14%	50% if they win against Czechia; otherwise 23%
G	Israel	26%	70%	31%	3.9%	53% if they win against Poland; otherwise 28%
E	Hungary	16%	66%	29%	< 1%	38% if they win against Wales; otherwise 16%
F	Romania	21%	38%	16%	< 1%	42% if they win against Norway; otherwise 24%
J	Greece	20%	1.5%	1.5%	< 1%	37% if they win against Italy; otherwise 15%
H	Albania	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8% if they win against Iceland; otherwise 1%
A	Montenegro	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	29% if they draw (or win) against Czechia; otherwise 7%
I	Cyprus	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	5% if they draw (or win) against Russia; otherwise 0.5%
C	Estonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Slovenia	12%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	33% if they win against Austria; otherwise 9.1%
B	Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
D	Georgia (H)	< 1%	99.27%	99.27%	99.27%
G	Macedonia (H)	13%	87%	87%	87%	50% if they win against Austria; otherwise 35%
C	Belarus (P)	< 1%	99.56%	99.56%	14%
A	Kosovo (P)	4.8%	95.2%	95.2%	< 1%	27% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 18%
B	Luxembourg	< 1%	18%	18%	< 1%	2% if Macedonia win against Austria; otherwise 0.9%
J	Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1% if they win against Greece; otherwise 0.2%
E	Azerbaijan	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 0.2%
H	Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Kazakhstan	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Latvia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	San Marino (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

Euro 20: Match Day 2 Groups A, B and H

Group A	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
England (P)	2	6	99.87%	96.2%	99.71%	100%
Bulgaria	2	2	28%	< 1%	17%	99.60%	51% if they win against Czechia; otherwise 23%
Kosovo (P)	1	1	19%	< 1%	4.8%	100%	27% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 18%
Montenegro	2	1	15%	< 1%	15%	15%	29% if they draw (or win) against Czechia; otherwise 7%
Czechia	1	0	73%	3.0%	64%	99.92%	82% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 59%

(P) Clinched playoff

Czechia playing Bulgaria and Montenegro in two important matches.

Group B	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Ukraine (H)	2	4	73%	27%	59%	100%	87% if they win against Serbia; otherwise 62%
Luxembourg	2	3	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	2% if Macedonia win against Austria; otherwise 0.9%
Portugal (H)	2	2	91%	41%	78%	100%	94% if Luxembourg draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 91%
Serbia (P)	1	1	78%	31%	63%	100%	87% if they draw (or win) against Ukraine; otherwise 66%
Lithuania	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

This is the most open group with three teams fighting over to spots. Ukraine will play Serbia next in a very important match.

Group H	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
France (P)	2	6	99.95%	96.5%	99.83%	100%
Turkey	2	6	71%	2.9%	65%	99.80%	85% if they draw (or win) against Iceland; otherwise 55%
Albania	2	3	2.4%	< 1%	2.4%	2.6%	8% if they win against Iceland; otherwise 1%
Iceland	2	3	46%	< 1%	33%	99.88%	61% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 33%
Andorra	2	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	2	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(P) Clinched playoff

Turkey will go to Iceland in next round in a crucial match.

Euro20: Match Day 2 groups C, E and G

Germany and Netherlands still favorites and the probability that they take top 2  spots is ~90%. Northern Ireland is the main challenger and they have won both their matches so far.

Group C	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Northern Ireland	2	6	18%	1.5%	10%	94%	24% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 15%
Germany	1	3	98.7%	73%	97.2%	>99.99%	99.2% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 97%
Netherlands (P)	2	3	97.0%	25%	92%	100%	98% if Belarus draw (or win) against Northern Ireland; otherwise 95%
Estonia	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus (P)	2	0	23%	< 1%	< 1%	100%

(P) Clinched playoff


Open group between four teams and became even more open after Croatia's loss against Hungary.

Group E	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Wales	1	3	74%	29%	64%	99.99%	86% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 66%
Slovakia	2	3	55%	14%	40%	99.76%	61% if they win against Azerbaijan; otherwise 45%
Hungary	2	3	24%	4.0%	16%	83%	39% if they win against Wales; otherwise 16%
Croatia	2	3	91%	53%	80%	>99.99%	94% if they win against Wales; otherwise 84%
Azerbaijan	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 0.2%

Israel with a very important win at home versus Austria. Austria still favorites to take the 2nd spot after Poland but this result makes the race with Israel tighter.

Group G	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Poland	2	6	95%	78%	93%	>99.99%	97% if they win against Israel; otherwise 89%
Israel	2	4	32%	6%	26%	95.5%	53% if they win against Poland; otherwise 28%
Macedonia (H)	2	4	39%	2.3%	13%	100%	50% if they win against Austria; otherwise 35%
Slovenia	2	2	12%	2.1%	12%	12%	24% if they draw (or win) against Austria; otherwise 7%
Austria	2	0	70%	12%	56%	>99.99%	78% if they win against Macedonia; otherwise 59%
Latvia	2	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff

Euro20: Predictions after Match Day 1

Group A	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
England (P)	1	3	99.54%	92%	98.9%	100%
Montenegro	1	1	17%	1.1%	17%	17%	33% if they win against England; otherwise 15%
Bulgaria	1	1	32%	1.4%	19%	99.68%	40% if they win against Kosovo; otherwise 26%
Kosovo (P)	0	0	20%	< 1%	6%	100%	25% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 18%
Czechia	1	0	69%	4.8%	59%	99.92%	71% if Kosovo draw (or win) against Bulgaria; otherwise 66%

(P) Clinched playoff

Group B	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Luxembourg	1	3	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	3% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 1%
Portugal (H)	1	1	95%	57%	87%	100%	98% if they win against Serbia; otherwise 90%
Ukraine (H)	1	1	70%	19%	54%	100%	74% if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 60%
Serbia (P)	0	0	76%	24%	59%	100%	90% if they win against Portugal; otherwise 73%
Lithuania	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

Group C	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Netherlands (P)	1	3	98.9%	61%	96.9%	100%	99.5% if they win against Germany; otherwise 98.1%
Northern Ireland	1	3	17%	1.1%	8%	95.6%	20% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 13%
Germany	0	0	96.9%	38%	93%	>99.99%	99% if they win against Netherlands; otherwise 96%
Estonia	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Belarus (P)	1	0	24%	< 1%	1.5%	100%

(P) Clinched playoff

Group D	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Switzerland (H)	1	3	96.3%	57%	91%	100%	98.5% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 94%
Ireland	1	3	37%	5%	23%	99.15%	41% if they win against Georgia; otherwise 29%
Denmark (P)	0	0	92%	37%	83%	100%	97% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 90%
Gibraltar	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Georgia (H)	1	0	38%	< 1%	1.9%	100%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

Group E	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Slovakia	1	3	67%	16%	55%	99.89%	87% if they win against Wales; otherwise 60%
Croatia	1	3	95.9%	69%	91%	>99.99%	98% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 93%
Wales	0	0	64%	14%	48%	99.99%	76% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 52%
Azerbaijan	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Hungary	1	0	15%	< 1%	6%	80%	24% if they win against Croatia; otherwise 13%

Group F	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Spain (P)	1	3	98.5%	75%	95.6%	100%
Sweden (P)	1	3	87%	21%	77%	100%	94% if they win against Norway; otherwise 81%
Malta	1	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Norway (H)	1	0	37%	< 1%	10%	100%	46% if they win against Sweden; otherwise 33%
Romania	1	0	27%	2.7%	18%	54%	30% if Norway draw (or win) against Sweden; otherwise 23%
Faroe Islands	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

Group G	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Macedonia (H)	1	3	37%	2.3%	11%	100%	44% if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 35%
Poland	1	3	94%	69%	91%	>99.99%	95% if they win against Latvia; otherwise 88%
Slovenia	1	1	15%	3.3%	15%	15%	20% if they win against Macedonia; otherwise 8%
Israel	1	1	19%	2.4%	12%	95.9%	31% if they win against Austria; otherwise 14%
Austria	1	0	80%	23%	72%	>99.99%	88% if they win against Israel; otherwise 73%
Latvia	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff

Group H	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
France (P)	1	3	99.90%	95.4%	99.62%	100%
Turkey	1	3	68%	3.1%	61%	99.84%	71% if they win against Moldova; otherwise 56%
Iceland	1	3	51%	1.5%	37%	99.94%	61% if Moldova draw (or win) against Turkey; otherwise 49%
Albania	1	0	2.2%	< 1%	2.2%	2.3%	3% if they win against Andorra; otherwise 0.8%
Andorra	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 0.1%

(P) Clinched playoff

Group I	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Cyprus	1	3	2.0%	< 1%	2.0%	2.0%	6% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 2%
Kazakhstan	1	3	1.5%	< 1%	1.5%	1.5%	8% if they win against Russia; otherwise 0.7%
Belgium (P)	1	3	99.87%	95%	99.58%	100%
Russia	1	0	77%	3.6%	68%	>99.99%	81% if they win against Kazakhstan; otherwise 68%
Scotland (H)	1	0	57%	1.4%	29%	100%	62% if Kazakhstan draw (or win) against Russia; otherwise 54%
San Marino (E)	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

Group J	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Greece	1	3	15%	2.8%	15%	16%	29% if they draw (or win) against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 9.2%
Italy	1	3	97.2%	68%	94%	>99.99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina (H)	1	3	86%	28%	78%	100%	91% if they win against Greece; otherwise 76%
Armenia	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.0%	2% if they win against Finland; otherwise 0.5%
Finland (P)	1	0	25%	1.5%	12%	100%	29% if they win against Armenia; otherwise 21%
Liechtenstein	1	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
D	Switzerland (H)	91%	9%	9%	9%	98.5% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 94%
B	Portugal (H)	87%	13%	13%	13%	98% if they win against Serbia; otherwise 90%
C	Netherlands (P)	96.9%	3.1%	3.1%	3.0%	99.5% if they win against Germany; otherwise 98.1%
A	England (P)	98.9%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%
I	Belgium (P)	99.58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	France (P)	99.62%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Spain (P)	95.6%	4.4%	4.4%	4.4%
J	Italy	94%	6%	6%	6%
E	Croatia	91%	9%	9%	9%	98% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 93%
G	Poland	91%	9%	9%	8%	95% if they win against Latvia; otherwise 88%
C	Germany	93%	7%	7%	7%	99% if they win against Netherlands; otherwise 96%
H	Iceland	37%	63%	63%	55%	61% if Moldova draw (or win) against Turkey; otherwise 49%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
J	Bosnia and Herzegovina (H)	78%	22%	22%	22%	91% if they win against Greece; otherwise 76%
B	Ukraine (H)	54%	46%	46%	46%	74% if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 60%
D	Denmark (P)	83%	17%	17%	15%	97% if they win against Switzerland; otherwise 90%
F	Sweden (P)	77%	23%	23%	19%	94% if they win against Norway; otherwise 81%
I	Russia	68%	32%	21%	26%	81% if they win against Kazakhstan; otherwise 68%
G	Austria	72%	28%	18%	21%	88% if they win against Israel; otherwise 73%
E	Wales	48%	52%	37%	34%	76% if they win against Slovakia; otherwise 52%
A	Czechia	59%	41%	27%	21%	71% if Kosovo draw (or win) against Bulgaria; otherwise 66%
E	Slovakia	55%	45%	32%	24%	87% if they win against Wales; otherwise 60%
H	Turkey	61%	39%	25%	15%	71% if they win against Moldova; otherwise 56%
D	Ireland	23%	76%	55%	13%	41% if they win against Georgia; otherwise 29%
C	Northern Ireland	8%	87%	64%	8%	20% if they win against Belarus; otherwise 13%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
I	Scotland (H)	29%	71%	71%	71%	62% if Kazakhstan draw (or win) against Russia; otherwise 54%
F	Norway (H)	10%	90%	90%	90%	46% if they win against Sweden; otherwise 33%
B	Serbia (P)	59%	41%	41%	15%	90% if they win against Portugal; otherwise 73%
J	Finland (P)	12%	88%	88%	20%	29% if they win against Armenia; otherwise 21%
A	Bulgaria	19%	81%	34%	18%	40% if they win against Kosovo; otherwise 26%
G	Israel	12%	84%	35%	6%	31% if they win against Austria; otherwise 14%
E	Hungary	6%	73%	28%	< 1%	24% if they win against Croatia; otherwise 13%
F	Romania	18%	36%	13%	< 1%	30% if Norway draw (or win) against Sweden; otherwise 23%
J	Greece	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	29% if they draw (or win) against Bosnia and Herzegovina; otherwise 9.2%
H	Albania	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3% if they win against Andorra; otherwise 0.8%
A	Montenegro	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	33% if they win against England; otherwise 15%
I	Cyprus	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6% if they win against Belgium; otherwise 2%
C	Estonia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Slovenia	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20% if they win against Macedonia; otherwise 8%
B	Lithuania	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
D	Georgia (H)	1.9%	98.1%	98.1%	98.1%
G	Macedonia (H)	11%	89%	89%	89%	44% if they win against Slovenia; otherwise 35%
C	Belarus (P)	1.5%	98.5%	98.5%	13%
A	Kosovo (P)	6%	94%	94%	< 1%	25% if they win against Bulgaria; otherwise 18%
B	Luxembourg	< 1%	19%	19%	< 1%	3% if they win against Ukraine; otherwise 1%
J	Armenia	< 1%	1.2%	1.2%	< 1%	2% if they win against Finland; otherwise 0.5%
E	Azerbaijan	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Andorra	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Moldova	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2% if they win against Turkey; otherwise 0.1%
D	Gibraltar	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Faroe Islands	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Kazakhstan	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	8% if they win against Russia; otherwise 0.7%
F	Malta	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Latvia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Liechtenstein	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	San Marino (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated