CL: Match Day 5

Paris and Madrid have clinched advancement to knockout stage.

Bayern and Tottenham have clinched knockout-stage.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	11	12-3	Man City
71%	5	6	8-10	Shakhtar	96% if they draw (or win) against Atalanta; otherwise 0%
7%	5	5	9-9	Dinamo Zagreb	48% if they win against Man City; otherwise 0%
22%	5	4	5-12	Atalanta	85% if they win against Shakhtar; otherwise 0%

Man City have clinched knockout-stage. In the last round Shakhtar play Atalanta and Zagrab play Man City.

Atalanta take the second spot if they win against Shakhtar and Man City take a point (or more) against Zagreb.

Zagreb take the second spot if they win against Man City and Atalanta take a point (or more) against Shakhtar.

Shakhtar take the second spot if

• they win against Atalanta or
• they draw and Zagreb fail to win against City

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	13	10-4	Juventus
91%	5	7	6-5	Atletico	qualified if they win against Lok Moskva; otherwise 62%
9%	5	6	5-7	Leverkusen	38% if Lok Moskva draw (or win) against Atletico; otherwise 0%
0%	5	3	4-9	Lok Moskva

Atletico clinch the second spot if they win against Lok Moskva (home) or if Leverkusen do not win against Juventus (home).

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
83%	5	10	11-8	Liverpool	qualified if they draw (or win) against Salzburg; otherwise 15%
97%	5	9	7-4	Napoli	qualified if they draw (or win) against Genk; otherwise 80%
20%	5	7	14-10	Salzburg	qualified if they win against Liverpool; otherwise 0%
0%	5	1	4-14	Genk

Napoli advance to knockout-stage if

• they draw (or win) win against Genk or
• Liverpool draw (or win) against Salzburg or

Liverpool advance to knockout-stage if

• they draw (or win) against Salzburg or
• Genk win against Napoli

 Salzburg advance to knockout-stage if they win against Liverpool

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	11	6-2	Barcelona
93%	5	7	5-5	Dortmund	qualified if Barcelona draw (or win) against Inter; otherwise 69%
7%	5	5	6-7	Inter	31% if they win against Barcelona; otherwise 0%
0%	5	3	3-6	Slavia Praha

Inter need to win against Barcelona (home) while Dortmund fail to win against Slavia Praha (home).

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
68%	5	9	6-6	RB Leipzig	qualified if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 20%
28%	5	7	7-6	Zenit	78% if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 0%
40%	5	7	7-6	Lyon	qualified if they win against RB Leipzig; otherwise 0%
64%	5	6	7-9	Benfica	qualified if they win against Zenit; otherwise 0%

In the last match Benfica play Zenit while Lyon play Liepzig.

Leipizig qualify if

• they draw (or win) or
• Benfica draw (or win) against Zenit

Benfica qualify if they win against Zenit

Lyon qualify if they win against Leipzig

Zenit qualify if

• they win against Benfica or
• they draw against Benfica and Lyon do not win against Liepzig

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
83%	5	10	11-5	Ajax	qualified if they draw (or win) against Valencia; otherwise 29%
37%	5	8	8-7	Valencia	qualified if they win against Ajax; otherwise 17%
80%	5	8	9-8	Chelsea	qualified if they win against Lille; otherwise 31%
0%	5	1	3-11	Lille

In December, Ajax play Valencia and Chelsea play Lille.

Ajax qualify if

• they draw (or win) against Valencia or
• Chelsea fail to win against Lille

Chelsea qualify if

• they win against Lille or
• if they draw and Ajax win against Valencia

Valencia qualify if

• they win against Ajax or
• they draw and Chelsea do not win or
• Lille win against Chelsea

 Amon the favorites wew notice that Liverpool are in a bit of trouble and so are Chelsea and Ajax.

	Chance Finishing Group			Round Probabilities
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Last 16	Quarter	Semifinal	Final	Winner
Man City	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	82%	61%	43%	27%
Liverpool	66%	17%	17%	83%	68%	51%	36%	23%
Barcelona	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	74%	47%	28%	14%
Bayern	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	69%	40%	21%	10%
Tottenham	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	53%	26%	11%	4%
Juventus	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	57%	26%	10%	4%
Atletico	< 1%	91%	9%	91%	41%	20%	9%	4%
Chelsea	16%	64%	20%	80%	39%	17%	7%	2%
Ajax	61%	23%	17%	83%	41%	17%	6%	2%
Real Madrid	< 1%	100%	< 1%	100%	37%	15%	5%	2%
Paris SG	100%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	49%	18%	6%	2%
Dortmund	< 1%	93%	7%	93%	33%	12%	4%	1%
Napoli	32%	66%	3%	97%	36%	12%	4%	1%
RB Leipzig	60%	8%	32%	68%	29%	10%	3%	< 1%
Benfica	< 1%	64%	< 1%	64%	20%	7%	2%	< 1%
Valencia	23%	13%	63%	37%	16%	5%	2%	< 1%
Shakhtar	< 1%	71%	20%	71%	21%	6%	2%	< 1%
Salzburg	3%	17%	80%	20%	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Lyon	33%	7%	37%	40%	12%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Atalanta	< 1%	22%	4%	22%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Leverkusen	< 1%	9%	91%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Zenit	7%	22%	31%	28%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Inter	< 1%	7%	85%	7%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Dinamo Zagreb	< 1%	7%	76%	7%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Brugge	< 1%	< 1%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	< 1%	< 1%	68%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Crvena Zvezda	< 1%	< 1%	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Galatasaray	< 1%	< 1%	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Slavia Praha	< 1%	< 1%	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 Below is matrix showing likely last-16 matchups.

Winner \ Runner-up	Live	Ajax	RB L	Lyon	Napo	Vale	Chel	Zeni	Salz	Tott	Real	Dort	Atle	Shak	Benf	Atal	Leve	Inte	Dina	Total
Paris SG	2%	2%	1%		9%	1%	10%	2%	2%	16%		14%	13%	8%	7%	3%	1%	1%	<1%	100%
Bayern	3%	3%		1%	11%	2%	12%	3%	2%		17%		16%	10%	9%	3%		1%	1%	100%
Man City		3%	1%	1%	12%	2%		3%	2%		20%	20%	18%		10%		1%	1%		100%
Juventus	2%	3%	1%	1%		2%	12%	2%	2%	19%	16%	16%		9%	8%				<1%	100%
Barcelona	3%	3%	1%	1%	12%		14%	3%	3%	24%				12%	10%	4%	1%		1%	100%
Liverpool		2%	<1%	<1%		1%		2%			12%	13%	12%	7%	6%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	65%
Ajax	1%		<1%	<1%	5%			1%	1%	9%	8%	9%	7%	5%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	60%
RB Leipzig	1%	1%			6%	1%	7%		1%	11%	9%		9%	5%		2%		<1%	<1%	59%
Lyon	<1%	<1%			3%	<1%	3%		<1%	5%	4%	4%	4%	2%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	33%
Napoli		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	3%	<1%		4%	4%	4%	4%	2%	2%		<1%		<1%	31%
Valencia	<1%		<1%	<1%	3%			<1%	<1%	5%		4%		2%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	23%
Chelsea			<1%	<1%	1%			<1%	<1%		2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	15%
Zenit	<1%	<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	6%
Salzburg		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%
Total	17%	22%	7%	6%	65%	13%	63%	21%	17%	100%	100%	92%	91%	71%	63%	21%	8%	7%	7%

Euro 20: Who qualify from the last round?

With one round to play 16 countries have qualified for Euro 20. Eight countries in three groups are fighting about the remaining four slot in the finals. All eight countries have secured a place in the playoff if they fail qualifying directly.

Group B	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Ukraine (Q)	7	19	100%	100%	100%	100%
Portugal (H)	7	14	98.8%	< 1%	95%	100%	qualified if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 89%
Serbia (P)	7	13	35%	< 1%	5%	100%	62% if Luxembourg draw (or win) against Portugal; otherwise 32%
Luxembourg (E)	7	4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania (E)	8	1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(Q) Clinched qualification
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

Portugal clinch qualification if they win against Luxembourg. Serbia need to win against Ukraine and hope that Luxembourg can steal a point against Portugal. The third placed coutry in the group will play in the play-off.

Group D	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Denmark (H)	7	15	85%	44%	68%	100%	qualified if they draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 55%
Switzerland (H)	7	14	99.80%	56%	99.46%	100%	qualified if they draw (or win) against Gibraltar; otherwise 87%
Ireland (P)	7	12	47%	< 1%	33%	100%	98.1% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 22%
Georgia (p)	8	8	33%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Gibraltar (E)	7	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(p) Cannot qualify directly, but have clinched home advantage in playoff
(E) Eliminated

Switzerland need to take a point against Gibraltar to clinch qualification. Denmark and Ireland will play and deciding match in Ireland on Monday. Denmark need a point to take the second slot. If Switzerland unlikey draw Gibraltar, then Denmark can lose with one goal against Ireland and still finish top 2 as it's then head-to-head between the top 3 countries in which all countries would have 5 points and goal difference decides.

Group E	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Croatia (Q)	8	17	100%	100%	100%	100%
Hungary (P)	7	12	36%	< 1%	21%	100%	qualified if they win against Wales; otherwise 22%
Wales (P)	7	11	74%	< 1%	62%	100%	qualified if they win against Hungary; otherwise 31%
Slovakia (P)	7	10	41%	< 1%	17%	100%	88% if Wales draw against Hungary; otherwise 29%
Azerbaijan (E)	7	1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(Q) Clinched qualification
(P) Clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

In the last round Slovakia host Azerbaijan while Wales host Hungary. Regardless of the match in Slovakia, if there is a winner between Wales and Hungary, that country clinch the second slot. If there is a draw in Wales and Slovakia beat Azerbaijan, both Hungary and Slovakia finish on 13 points and Slovakia have better head-to-head against Hungary. So in summary it means

Wales qualify if they win against Hungary (62%).
Hungary qualify if they win against Wales or Slovakia fail to win against Azerbaijan (21%).
Slovakia qualify if they beat Azerbaijan and Wales and Hungary draw (17%).

Euro: Group D, F and J

Group D	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Denmark (H)	7	15	85%	44%	68%	100%	qualified if they draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 56%
Switzerland (H)	7	14	99.79%	55%	99.46%	100%	qualified if they draw (or win) against Gibraltar; otherwise 87%
Ireland (P)	7	12	47%	< 1%	33%	100%	98.1% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 22%
Georgia (p)	8	8	33%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Gibraltar (E)	7	0	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(p) Cannot qualify directly, but have clinched home advantage in playoff
(E) Eliminated

Switzerland virtually clinched qualification. They need to take a point against Gibraltar. Denmark and Ireland will play a deciding match in Dublin. Ireland need to win to snatch the second direct spot.

Group F	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Spain (Q)	9	23	100%	100%	100%	100%
Sweden (Q)	9	18	100%	< 1%	100%	100%
Romania (x)	9	14	28%	< 1%	< 1%	99.57%
Norway (p)	9	14	30%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Faroe Islands (E)	9	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Malta (E)	9	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(Q) Clinched qualification
(p) Cannot qualify directly, but have clinched home advantage in playoff
(x) Cannot qualify directly, but possibly via playoff
(E) Eliminated

Sweden clinched qualification. Norway will play the play-off and are probably joined by Romania.

Group J	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Italy (Q)	9	27	100%	100%	100%	100%
Finland (Q)	9	18	100%	< 1%	100%	100%
Greece (E)	9	11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Armenia (E)	9	10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bosnia/Herzeg (p)	9	10	27%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	30% if Denmark draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 22%
Liechtenstein (E)	9	2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(Q) Clinched qualification
(p) Cannot qualify directly, but have clinched home advantage in playoff
(E) Eliminated

Finland clinched qualification.

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
D	Switzerland (H)	99.46%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	qualified if they draw (or win) against Gibraltar; otherwise 87%
B	Portugal (H)	95%	5%	5%	5%	qualified if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 89%
C	Netherlands (P)	99.81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	England (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Belgium (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	France (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Spain (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Italy (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Croatia (P)	97.7%	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%	qualified if they draw (or win) against Slovakia; otherwise 94%
G	Poland (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Germany (P)	99.58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	qualified if they draw (or win) against Northern Ireland; otherwise 98.4%
H	Iceland (h)	< 1%	100%	100%	99.79%	31% if Portugal win against Luxembourg; otherwise 23%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
J	Bosnia/Herzeg (p)	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	30% if Denmark draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 22%
B	Ukraine (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Denmark (H)	68%	32%	32%	32%	qualified if they draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 56%
F	Sweden (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Russia (H)	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Austria (P)	99.50%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.994% if they draw (or win) against Latvia; otherwise 96%
E	Wales (P)	37%	63%	57%	44%	72% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 31%
A	Czechia (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Slovakia (P)	43%	57%	52%	34%	90% if Wales draw against Hungary; otherwise 51%
H	Turkey (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Ireland (P)	33%	67%	64%	3.3%	98.1% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 22%
C	Northern Ireland (P)	< 1%	99.39%	94%	5%	18% if Hungary win against Wales; otherwise 13%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
I	Scotland (p)	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
F	Norway (p)	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
B	Serbia (P)	5%	95%	95%	< 1%	62% if Luxembourg draw (or win) against Portugal; otherwise 32%
J	Finland (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Bulgaria (h)	< 1%	100%	28%	54%	18% if Wales draw (or win) against Hungary; otherwise 9%
G	Israel (P)	< 1%	99.93%	28%	18%	14% if Wales draw (or win) against Hungary; otherwise 9.3%
E	Hungary (P)	22%	78%	20%	< 1%	qualified if they win against Wales; otherwise 22%
F	Romania (x)	< 1%	99.57%	28%	< 1%
J	Greece (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Albania (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Montenegro (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Estonia (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Slovenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Lithuania (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
D	Georgia (p)	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
G	North Macedonia (H)	< 1%	99.64%	99.64%	99.64%
A	Kosovo (h)	< 1%	100%	100%	< 1%
C	Belarus (h)	< 1%	100%	100%	< 1%
B	Luxembourg (x)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Armenia (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Faroe Islands (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Andorra (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Moldova (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Azerbaijan (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Gibraltar (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Kazakhstan (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Latvia (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Liechtenstein (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Malta (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	San Marino (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(Q) Clinched qualification
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(h) Cannot qualify directly, but have clinched playoff
(p) Cannot qualify directly, but have clinched home advantage in playoff
(x) Cannot qualify directly, but possibly via playoff
(E) Eliminated

Euro: Groups A, B, H

Group A	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
England (Q)	7	18	100%	100%	100%	100%
Czechia (Q)	7	15	100%	< 1%	100%	100%
Kosovo (h)	7	11	23%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
Montenegro (E)	8	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Bulgaria (h)	7	3	15%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	17% if Wales draw (or win) against Hungary; otherwise 9%

(Q) Clinched qualification
(h) Cannot qualify directly, but have clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

England and Czechia clinched qualification while Kosovo and Bulgaria will play playoff.

Group B	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
Ukraine (Q)	7	19	100%	100%	100%	100%
Portugal (H)	7	14	98.7%	< 1%	95%	100%	qualified if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 89%
Serbia (P)	7	13	35%	< 1%	5%	100%	62% if Luxembourg draw (or win) against Portugal; otherwise 32%
Luxembourg (x)	7	4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Lithuania (E)	8	1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(Q) Clinched qualification
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(x) Cannot qualify directly, but possibly via playoff
(E) Eliminated

Portugal have Luxembourg in the last match and if they win they qualify. Serbia will likely finish third and play playoff.

Group H	Pld	Pts	Qual	1st	Top 2	Atleast Playoff	Comment
France (Q)	9	22	100%	82%	100%	100%
Turkey (Q)	9	20	100%	18%	100%	100%
Iceland (h)	9	16	30%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	31% if Portugal win against Luxembourg; otherwise 23%
Albania (E)	9	13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Andorra (E)	9	4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Moldova (E)	9	3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(Q) Clinched qualification
(h) Cannot qualify directly, but have clinched playoff
(E) Eliminated

France and Turkey clinched qualification, while Iceland will play the playoff.

The tables below describves who goes to playoff

League A		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
D	Switzerland (H)	97.2%	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%	99.7% if they draw (or win) against Georgia; otherwise 87%
B	Portugal (H)	95%	5%	5%	5%	qualified if they win against Luxembourg; otherwise 89%
C	Netherlands (P)	99.82%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	England (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Belgium (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	France (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Spain (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Italy (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Croatia (P)	97.7%	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%	qualified if they draw (or win) against Slovakia; otherwise 94%
G	Poland (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Germany (P)	99.58%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	qualified if they draw (or win) against Northern Ireland; otherwise 98.4%
H	Iceland (h)	< 1%	100%	100%	99.62%	31% if Portugal win against Luxembourg; otherwise 23%
League B		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
J	Bosnia/Herzeg (H)	< 1%	99.33%	99.33%	99.33%	29% if Denmark draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 24%
B	Ukraine (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Denmark (H)	72%	28%	28%	28%	99.98% if they draw (or win) against Ireland; otherwise 60%
F	Sweden (P)	90%	10%	10%	7%	99.6% if they draw (or win) against Romania; otherwise 86%
I	Russia (P)	>99.99%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Austria (P)	99.50%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.993% if they draw (or win) against Latvia; otherwise 96%
E	Wales (P)	38%	62%	55%	44%	73% if they win against Hungary; otherwise 32%
A	Czechia (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Slovakia (P)	43%	57%	50%	34%	90% if Wales draw against Hungary; otherwise 52%
H	Turkey (Q)	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Ireland (P)	31%	69%	63%	5%	94% if they win against Denmark; otherwise 22%
C	Northern Ireland	< 1%	99.39%	91%	7%	20% if they win against Germany; otherwise 14%
League C		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
I	Scotland (p)	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
F	Norway (H)	< 1%	99.73%	99.73%	99.73%
B	Serbia (P)	5%	95%	95%	< 1%	62% if Luxembourg draw (or win) against Portugal; otherwise 32%
J	Finland (P)	99.31%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	qualified if they win against Liechtenstein; otherwise 93%
A	Bulgaria (h)	< 1%	100%	29%	48%	17% if Wales draw (or win) against Hungary; otherwise 9%
G	Israel	< 1%	99.92%	29%	16%	14% if Wales draw (or win) against Hungary; otherwise 9.2%
E	Hungary	22%	78%	21%	< 1%	qualified if they win against Wales; otherwise 22%
F	Romania	9%	90%	25%	< 1%	53% if they draw (or win) against Spain; otherwise 30%
J	Greece (x)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Albania (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
A	Montenegro (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Cyprus	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Estonia (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Slovenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
B	Lithuania (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
League D		Top 2	Playoff	Own League	Home Advantage	Comment
D	Georgia (p)	< 1%	100%	100%	100%
G	North Macedonia (H)	< 1%	99.63%	99.63%	99.63%
A	Kosovo (h)	< 1%	100%	100%	< 1%
C	Belarus (h)	< 1%	100%	100%	< 1%
B	Luxembourg (x)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Armenia	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Faroe Islands (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Andorra (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Moldova (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Azerbaijan (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
D	Gibraltar (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Kazakhstan (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Latvia (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
J	Liechtenstein (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
F	Malta (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	San Marino (E)	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

(Q) Clinched qualification
(H) Clinched home advantage in playoff
(P) Clinched playoff
(h) Cannot qualify directly, but have clinched playoff
(p) Cannot qualify directly, but have clinched home advantage in playoff
(x) Cannot qualify directly, but possibly via playoff
(E) Eliminated