ECL: Peicester (16%), PSV (15%, and Roma (13%) remain favourites in ECL

 

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Leicester	61%	41%	27%	16%
PSV	71%	45%	27%	15%
Roma	71%	42%	24%	13%
Feyenoord	70%	40%	22%	11%
Marseille	69%	39%	21%	11%
Slavia Praha	68%	36%	18%	8%
Alkmaar	61%	32%	15%	7%
Rennes	39%	22%	12%	6%
Bodoe Glimt	39%	16%	6%	2%
FC Kobenhavn	29%	12%	4%	2%
Vitesse	29%	11%	4%	2%
Basel	31%	12%	4%	1%
Partizan	30%	11%	4%	1%
Gent	51%	15%	4%	1%
PAOK	49%	14%	4%	1%
LASK	32%	11%	3%	1%

 

EL: Iberian teams remain favourites after draw

 

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Barcelona	92%	59%	36%	20%
Porto	62%	38%	23%	12%
Sevilla	54%	35%	21%	12%
RB Leipzig	85%	46%	24%	12%
Atalanta	56%	33%	18%	9%
West Ham	46%	27%	15%	8%
Betis	53%	26%	12%	5%
Leverkusen	44%	23%	11%	5%
Monaco	66%	29%	12%	5%
Lyon	38%	19%	9%	4%
Frankfurt	47%	22%	9%	4%
Rangers	59%	19%	6%	2%
Braga	34%	10%	3%	< 1%
Crvena Zvezda	41%	10%	2%	< 1%
Spartak Moskva	15%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Galatasaray	8%	1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

PL: Newcastle increase their chaances for new contract

Newcastle with an important against Brentford now have a predicted 78% (+18) chance to renew their contract. Brentford, on the other hand, are in trouble, trailing more than two points behind Newcastle and Everton in expected points, and are relegated in 41% (+14) of simulations. Watford took a point at Old Trafford, increasing their chances from 11% to 14%. Man United reduced their chances for CL from 39% to 29%.

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 13 points in the last 5 matches, 7.2 more than expected
Southampton: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 5.1 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leicester: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Leeds: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.3 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.77%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	2.1%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	84%
League cup winners	100%	99.97%	99.31%
Sixth team	>99.99%	89%	2.1%
Seventh team	91%	8%	2.5%
Eighth team	12%	6%	2.6%

Simulated points for winner: 88 - 93
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
66	Man City	89.8	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
60	Liverpool	84.3	+60	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	19%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
50	Chelsea	76.1	+45	< 1%	>99.99%	99.94%	99.66%	98.2%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%	98.4%
45	Arsenal	67.3	+17	< 1%	97.8%	92%	80%	57%	< 1%	6%	35%	57%
47	Man United	64.4	+14	< 1%	95.6%	85%	62%	26%	< 1%	12%	54%	29%
42	Tottenham	62.3	+6	< 1%	85%	65%	37%	13%	< 1%	20%	51%	13%
40	Wolves	58.6	+5	< 1%	59%	30%	12%	2.8%	< 1%	30%	26%	2.8%
39	West Ham	57.4	+10	< 1%	51%	26%	10%	2.5%	< 1%	23%	23%	10%
35	Southampton	49.9	-6	< 1%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.1%	2.6%	< 1%
27	Leicester	48.8	-5	< 1%	3.6%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.3%	17%	< 1%
33	Brighton	47.5	-9	< 1%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Aston Villa	46.9	-6	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
30	Crystal Palace	42.9	-5	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
23	Leeds	40.0	-29	14%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	38.8	-11	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Everton	38.4	-18	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
25	Newcastle	38.3	-25	22%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Brentford	36.0	-24	41%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Watford	30.4	-33	86%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	28.6	-49	94%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
West Ham	53%	23%	25%	Wolves
Burnley	40%	24%	36%	Leicester
Leicester	52%	23%	25%	Leeds
Aston Villa	52%	23%	25%	Southampton
Newcastle	41%	24%	34%	Brighton
Wolves	56%	22%	22%	Crystal Palace
Burnley	23%	22%	54%	Chelsea
Norwich	45%	24%	31%	Brentford
Liverpool	70%	17%	13%	West Ham
Watford	25%	23%	52%	Arsenal
Man City	65%	19%	16%	Man United
Tottenham	60%	21%	19%	Everton

PL: Arsenal leading the CL race with a late winner

 

Hot Teams
Newcastle: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.6 more than expected
Burnley: 8 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leeds: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 4.8 less than expected
Leicester: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.80%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	2.2%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	84%
League cup winners	100%	99.97%	99.20%
Sixth team	>99.99%	88%	2.1%
Seventh team	90%	9%	2.3%
Eighth team	12%	6%	2.3%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 38

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	88.9	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
60	Liverpool	84.3	+60	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.98%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
50	Chelsea	76.1	+45	< 1%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.68%	97.9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%	98.1%
45	Arsenal	67.3	+17	< 1%	98.0%	93%	81%	53%	< 1%	6%	39%	53%
46	Man United	65.8	+15	< 1%	97.7%	91%	75%	37%	< 1%	7%	51%	39%
39	Tottenham	60.6	+2	< 1%	75%	51%	23%	7%	< 1%	24%	45%	7%
40	Wolves	58.6	+5	< 1%	62%	33%	11%	2.5%	< 1%	30%	29%	2.5%
39	West Ham	57.4	+10	< 1%	54%	28%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	23%	25%	10%
33	Brighton	49.2	-6	< 1%	4.4%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	1.2%	< 1%
32	Southampton	48.9	-7	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	2.5%	< 1%
27	Leicester	48.8	-5	< 1%	4.2%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	21%	< 1%
27	Aston Villa	45.0	-9	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	Crystal Palace	43.7	-4	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
23	Leeds	41.5	-24	9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Everton	39.1	-18	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
19	Burnley	38.7	-12	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
24	Brentford	37.6	-21	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Newcastle	36.5	-28	40%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Watford	29.8	-34	89%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	29.4	-48	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Southampton	60%	21%	20%	Norwich
Leeds	41%	24%	35%	Tottenham
Man United	75%	15%	10%	Watford
Brighton	49%	23%	28%	Aston Villa
Brentford	47%	24%	29%	Newcastle
Crystal Palace	53%	23%	25%	Burnley
Everton	18%	20%	62%	Man City
West Ham	53%	23%	25%	Wolves
Burnley	40%	24%	36%	Leicester

 

ECL: Leicester favourite (20%)

 

Team	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Leicester	100%	70%	49%	32%	20%
PSV	100%	66%	43%	26%	15%
Marseille	100%	60%	36%	20%	10%
Roma	100%	50%	29%	17%	9%
Feyenoord	100%	50%	28%	16%	8%
Slavia Praha	100%	56%	31%	16%	8%
Rennes	100%	50%	27%	15%	7%
Alkmaar	100%	50%	26%	13%	6%
Bodoe Glimt	100%	43%	20%	8%	3%
FC Kobenhavn	100%	50%	20%	8%	3%
Basel	100%	50%	19%	7%	2%
Partizan	100%	38%	16%	6%	2%
LASK	100%	50%	17%	6%	2%
Gent	100%	50%	16%	5%	2%
Rapid Wien	100%	34%	13%	4%	1%
PAOK	100%	32%	11%	3%	1%

 

EL: Iberian teams favourites (46%)

 

Team	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Sevilla	100%	62%	45%	28%	16%
Barcelona	100%	62%	45%	28%	16%
Porto	100%	61%	43%	25%	14%
Atalanta	100%	56%	38%	21%	11%
RB Leipzig	100%	53%	34%	18%	9%
West Ham	100%	50%	27%	15%	8%
Betis	100%	48%	29%	14%	6%
Leverkusen	100%	50%	23%	11%	5%
Lyon	100%	50%	22%	11%	5%
Frankfurt	100%	50%	21%	9%	4%
Monaco	100%	50%	20%	9%	4%
Rangers	100%	31%	14%	5%	2%
Braga	100%	26%	11%	3%	< 1%
Crvena Zvezda	100%	50%	11%	3%	< 1%
Spartak Moskva	100%	50%	8%	1%	< 1%
Galatasaray	100%	50%	6%	< 1%	< 1%

 

CL: Round 16 - First leg

 

Team	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Man City	100%	67%	43%	25%
Bayern	82%	54%	34%	19%
Liverpool	95%	60%	35%	19%
Chelsea	94%	48%	23%	10%
Ajax	80%	37%	16%	7%
Paris SG	65%	31%	14%	6%
Real Madrid	35%	18%	9%	4%
Man United	63%	26%	10%	4%
Juventus	64%	21%	6%	2%
Atletico	37%	13%	4%	2%
Villarreal	36%	10%	3%	< 1%
Inter	5%	3%	1%	< 1%
Salzburg	18%	5%	1%	< 1%
Benfica	20%	5%	1%	< 1%
Lille	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
Sporting	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

PL: United in the CL race

The fourth place is taken by Arsenal (45%) or Man United (38%) in >80% and the CL race start to look like a two-horse race. On average they take 66.3 and 65.8 points in the simulations and the dark horse, Tottenham, a trailing a few points behind with 62.0 points on average.

 

Hot Teams
Wolves: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Leicester: 2 points in the last 5 matches, 4.4 less than expected
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.81%
Fifth team	100%	>99.99%	1.9%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	84%
League cup winners	100%	99.96%	99.17%
Sixth team	>99.99%	88%	2.0%
Seventh team	91%	8%	2.5%
Eighth team	12%	6%	2.9%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 67 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	88.9	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	>99.99%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
57	Liverpool	83.8	+59	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.97%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	99.98%
50	Chelsea	76.1	+45	< 1%	>99.99%	99.93%	99.60%	97.9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%	98.0%
42	Arsenal	66.3	+17	< 1%	95.8%	88%	72%	45%	< 1%	9%	42%	45%
46	Man United	65.8	+15	< 1%	97.2%	89%	71%	38%	< 1%	9%	48%	40%
39	Tottenham	62.0	+3	< 1%	81%	59%	32%	13%	< 1%	22%	47%	13%
40	Wolves	59.4	+5	< 1%	65%	36%	15%	4.4%	< 1%	30%	30%	4.4%
39	West Ham	57.4	+10	< 1%	50%	25%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	22%	22%	11%
33	Brighton	49.2	-6	< 1%	3.7%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%
32	Southampton	48.9	-7	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	2.3%	< 1%
27	Leicester	48.8	-5	< 1%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.1%	20%	< 1%
27	Aston Villa	45.0	-9	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Crystal Palace	42.0	-7	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
23	Leeds	41.9	-23	8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Everton	39.1	-18	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
24	Brentford	37.6	-21	26%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Burnley	37.0	-13	31%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Newcastle	36.5	-28	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Watford	31.3	-31	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	29.4	-48	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Burnley	35%	24%	40%	Tottenham
Watford	40%	24%	36%	Crystal Palace
Liverpool	76%	15%	9%	Leeds
Arsenal	59%	21%	20%	Wolves

 

PL: Tottenham upset City at Etihad

Tottenham upset Man City at Etihad and increase their top-4 chances from 9% to 16%, while City's title chances decreased from 88% to  78%.

Hot Teams
Wolves: 12 points in the last 5 matches, 5.5 more than expected
Newcastle: 11 points in the last 5 matches, 4.5 more than expected
Liverpool: 15 points in the last 5 matches, 3.4 more than expected

Cold Teams
Brentford: 1 point in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
Everton: 3 points in the last 5 matches, 3.7 less than expected
West Ham: 5 points in the last 5 matches, 3.3 less than expected

	Europe	EL (or CL)	CL
Fourth team	100%	100%	99.78%
Fifth team	100%	99.99%	1.9%
FA cup winners	100%	100%	85%
League cup winners	100%	99.97%	99.42%
Sixth team	>99.99%	89%	2.2%
Seventh team	91%	9%	2.6%
Eighth team	13%	6%	2.5%

Simulated points for winner: 87 - 92
Simulated points for fourth: 66 - 71
Simulated points for 17th team: 35 - 37

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
63	Man City	88.9	+62	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
57	Liverpool	83.8	+59	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	99.98%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	99.99%
50	Chelsea	76.1	+45	< 1%	>99.99%	99.95%	99.74%	98.5%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	98.6%
42	Arsenal	66.3	+17	< 1%	96.3%	90%	77%	53%	< 1%	7%	36%	52%
40	Man United	63.4	+13	< 1%	92%	79%	56%	25%	< 1%	14%	50%	28%
39	Tottenham	62.0	+3	< 1%	83%	64%	39%	16%	< 1%	19%	49%	16%
37	Wolves	58.2	+4	< 1%	57%	32%	14%	4.2%	< 1%	26%	27%	4.2%
39	West Ham	57.4	+10	< 1%	54%	29%	12%	3.3%	< 1%	22%	25%	12%
33	Brighton	49.9	-5	< 1%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	4.3%	2.0%	< 1%
27	Leicester	49.8	-4	< 1%	7%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.7%	22%	< 1%
32	Southampton	48.9	-7	< 1%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	2.6%	< 1%
27	Aston Villa	45.0	-9	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
23	Leeds	43.1	-22	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
26	Crystal Palace	42.0	-7	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%
22	Everton	39.1	-18	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.6%	< 1%
24	Brentford	37.6	-21	27%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
16	Burnley	37.1	-13	32%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	Newcastle	36.5	-28	39%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Watford	31.2	-31	80%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Norwich	29.4	-48	92%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Coming Matches

Home		Draw		Away
Man United	64%	20%	17%	Brighton
Leeds	33%	24%	42%	Man United
Wolves	50%	23%	27%	Leicester

 

ECL: Probabilities after playoff leg 1

 

Team	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champion
Leicester	99%	70%	48%	32%	20%
PSV	88%	58%	38%	23%	13%
Marseille	92%	55%	33%	19%	10%
Roma	100%	50%	30%	17%	10%
Feyenoord	100%	50%	29%	16%	8%
Rennes	100%	50%	28%	15%	8%
Slavia Praha	94%	53%	30%	15%	7%
Alkmaar	100%	50%	26%	13%	6%
FC Kobenhavn	100%	50%	20%	8%	3%
Bodoe Glimt	94%	41%	19%	7%	3%
Basel	100%	50%	19%	7%	2%
LASK	100%	50%	17%	6%	2%
Gent	100%	50%	16%	5%	2%
Partizan	76%	30%	12%	4%	2%
Midtjylland	72%	28%	11%	4%	1%
Vitesse	44%	18%	7%	3%	1%
Rapid Wien	56%	20%	7%	2%	< 1%
Sparta Praha	24%	9%	4%	1%	< 1%
PAOK	28%	9%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Celtic	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
M Tel Aviv	12%	4%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Fenerbahce	6%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Karabakh Agdam	8%	2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Randers	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%