Updated bracket probabilities

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Belgium vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Belgium	7%	< 1%	< 1%
Croatia	< 1%	2.6%	3.1%

mutual information: 43.5 mBit

Serbia vs Switzerland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Switzerland	< 1%	2.8%	2.9%
Serbia	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%

mutual information: 21.5 mBit

Costa Rica vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%

mutual information: 18.8 mBit

Spain vs Japan	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	3.0%	2.5%	< 1%
Brazil	24%	25%	29%

mutual information: 8.8 mBit

Ghana vs Uruguay	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Uruguay	< 1%	< 1%	1.5%
Brazil	29%	30%	24%

mutual information: 6.6 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (77%) United States (23%)
United States (100%)
				Argentina (60%) Netherlands (33%)
Argentina (100%)
		Argentina (89%)
Australia (100%)
						Brazil (34%) Argentina (33%) Netherlands (14%)
Spain (81%) Japan (16%)
		Spain (58%) Morocco (13%) Croatia (11%)
Morocco (55%) Croatia (26%) Belgium (19%)
				Brazil (58%) Spain (24%) Uruguay (8%)
Brazil (99%)
		Brazil (81%) Uruguay (17%)
Uruguay (71%) Ghana (20%)
								Brazil (25%) Argentina (23%) France (10%) Netherlands (8%)
England (100%)
		England (76%) Senegal (24%)
Senegal (100%)
				France (48%) England (35%) Poland (12%)
France (100%)
		France (72%) Poland (28%)
Poland (100%)
						France (26%) Portugal (20%) England (15%) Germany (7%)
Croatia (41%) Belgium (32%) Morocco (28%)
		Germany (29%) Croatia (21%) Belgium (20%) Spain (11%)
Germany (51%) Costa Rica (27%) Spain (16%)
				Portugal (35%) Germany (14%) Switzerland (13%) Belgium (11%)
Portugal (99%)
		Portugal (60%) Switzerland (27%)
Switzerland (65%) Serbia (33%)

 

World Cup - The most important matches

Below are the most important matches in terms of who will win the tournament

Argentina vs Poland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	20%	15%	< 1%
Netherlands	9%	12%	13%
Denmark	1.7%	3.6%	3.9%

mutual information: 44.2 mBit

Belgium vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Belgium	8%	< 1%	< 1%
Croatia	< 1%	2.7%	3.1%

mutual information: 43.9 mBit

Serbia vs Switzerland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Switzerland	< 1%	2.9%	3.0%
Serbia	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%

mutual information: 21.4 mBit

Costa Rica vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%

mutual information: 19 mBit

Australia vs Denmark	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%
Argentina	20%	19%	16%

mutual information: 15.6 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (77%) United States (23%)
United States (100%)
				Netherlands (39%) Argentina (38%) Denmark (13%)
Argentina (73%) Poland (23%)
		Argentina (56%) Denmark (27%) Poland (10%)
Denmark (64%) Australia (32%)
						Brazil (37%) Argentina (21%) Netherlands (17%) Spain (12%)
Spain (81%) Japan (16%)
		Spain (58%) Morocco (13%) Croatia (11%)
Morocco (55%) Croatia (26%) Belgium (19%)
				Brazil (58%) Spain (24%) Uruguay (8%)
Brazil (99%)
		Brazil (81%) Uruguay (17%)
Uruguay (71%) Ghana (20%)
								Brazil (27%) Argentina (17%) France (10%) Netherlands (10%)
England (100%)
		England (76%) Senegal (24%)
Senegal (100%)
				France (47%) England (34%) Argentina (6%)
France (100%)
		France (71%) Poland (9%)
Poland (33%) Mexico (31%) Saudi Arabia (25%)
						France (25%) Portugal (20%) England (15%) Germany (7%)
Croatia (41%) Belgium (32%) Morocco (28%)
		Germany (29%) Croatia (21%) Belgium (20%) Spain (11%)
Germany (51%) Costa Rica (27%) Spain (16%)
				Portugal (35%) Germany (14%) Switzerland (13%) Belgium (11%)
Portugal (99%)
		Portugal (61%) Switzerland (27%)
Switzerland (65%) Serbia (33%)

Group H - Decider between Ghana and Uruguay

 Group H will be decided by a rematch of the 2010 quarterfinal between Ghana and Uruguay. Uruguay must win and hope South Korea are not beating Portugal. Ghana can clinch last 16 round with a win against Uruguay and unkless South Korea win a draw will suffice for Ghana too.

South Korea need to win and hope that Ghana do not beat Uruguay. If they draw Sout Korea need to win with two goals. If Uruguay win it depends on the exact result as detailed in tables below.

Group H

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Portugal	2	5	2	3	6	< 1%	99.32%	100%	61%	35%	19%	8%
Ghana	2	5	5	0	3	20%	< 1%	21%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
South Korea	2	2	3	-1	1	9%		9%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Uruguay	2	0	2	-2	1	71%		71%	17%	8%	3.1%	1.4%

Conditions for Portugal

Portugal - South Korea
Home	Draw	Away
100%	100%	100%	Gha - Uru
100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Conditions for Ghana

Portugal - South Korea
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
21%	21%	21%	8%	8%	8%	Gha - Uru
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
100%	100%	99.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Away

Conditions for South Korea

Portugal - South Korea
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	-3	-4
< 1%	< 1%	35%	40%	41%	67%	71%	81%	87%	Gha - Uru
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	6%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	18%	-1
< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	17%	0-2
< 1%	< 1%	49%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	15%	1-3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	49%	100%	100%	100%	100%	-	10%	2-4
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	6%	0-3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	47%	100%	100%	100%	5%	1-4
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	54%	100%	-	3%	2-5
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	87%	100%	1.5%	-4

Conditions for Uruguay

Portugal - South Korea
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	-4
79%	79%	44%	39%	37%	25%	21%	5%	Gha - Uru
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Draw
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	82%	-1
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	83%	0-2
100%	100%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	85%	1-3
100%	100%	100%	51%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	90%	2-4
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	94%	0-3
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	53%	< 1%	< 1%	95%	1-4
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	46%	-	97%	2-5
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	98.5%	-4

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Poland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	22%	14%	< 1%
Denmark	2.0%	4.3%	4.5%
Poland	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%

mutual information: 47.8 mBit

Belgium vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Belgium	7%	< 1%	< 1%
Croatia	< 1%	2.6%	3.0%

mutual information: 42.7 mBit

Serbia vs Switzerland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Switzerland	< 1%	2.8%	2.8%
Serbia	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%

mutual information: 20.9 mBit

Costa Rica vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%

mutual information: 18.1 mBit

Australia vs Denmark	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%
Argentina	21%	21%	17%

mutual information: 17.8 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (40%)
		Netherlands (39%) Ecuador (20%) Iran (14%) England (13%)
Iran (39%) England (28%) United States (27%)
				Argentina (41%) Netherlands (19%) Denmark (15%) Ecuador (6%)
Argentina (73%) Poland (23%)
		Argentina (56%) Denmark (27%) Poland (10%)
Denmark (64%) Australia (32%)
						Brazil (38%) Argentina (23%) Spain (12%) Netherlands (9%)
Spain (81%) Japan (16%)
		Spain (58%) Morocco (13%) Croatia (11%)
Morocco (55%) Croatia (26%) Belgium (19%)
				Brazil (58%) Spain (24%) Uruguay (8%)
Brazil (99%)
		Brazil (81%) Uruguay (17%)
Uruguay (71%) Ghana (20%)
								Brazil (27%) Argentina (18%) Netherlands (9%) France (9%)
England (72%) Iran (19%)
		England (37%) Netherlands (30%) Ecuador (17%)
Netherlands (45%) Ecuador (39%) Senegal (16%)
				France (43%) Netherlands (18%) England (16%) Ecuador (6%)
France (100%)
		France (71%) Poland (9%)
Poland (33%) Mexico (31%) Saudi Arabia (25%)
						France (23%) Portugal (19%) Netherlands (10%) England (7%) Germany (7%)
Croatia (41%) Belgium (32%) Morocco (28%)
		Germany (29%) Croatia (21%) Belgium (20%) Spain (11%)
Germany (51%) Costa Rica (27%) Spain (16%)
				Portugal (35%) Germany (14%) Switzerland (13%) Belgium (11%)
Portugal (99%)
		Portugal (61%) Switzerland (27%)
Switzerland (65%) Serbia (33%)

 

Group G - Deciding game between Switzerland and Serbia

A deciding game between Switzerland and Serbia. Serbia clinch a knockout stage spot with a win, unless Cameroon beat Brazil. Likewise, a draw suffices for Switzerland unless Cameroon beat Brazil. If Cameroon win and Switzerland do not win, it depends on goal difference as detailed in the tables below. 

Group G

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Brazil	2	3	0	3	6	< 1%	99.46%	100%	78%	56%	37%	26%
Switzerland	2	1	1	0	3	65%	< 1%	65%	29%	15%	7%	2.1%
Cameroon	2	3	4	-1	1	1.7%		1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Serbia	2	3	5	-2	1	33%		33%	13%	6%	2.5%	< 1%

Conditions for Switzerland

Brazil - Cameroon
Home	Draw	Away
66%	66%	43%	Ser - Swi
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
100%	100%	2%	96.5%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Conditions for Cameroon

Brazil - Cameroon
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	-2	-3	-4
< 1%	< 1%	41%	45%	53%	58%	52%	Ser - Swi
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	-	-	< 1%	+4
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	-	-	< 1%	+3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	24%	100%	100%	-	1.5%	+2
< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	-	3.6%	+1
< 1%	< 1%	93%	99%	100%	100%	-	3.5%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	Away

Conditions for Serbia

Brazil - Cameroon
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	-2	-3	-4
34%	34%	15%	13%	5%	2%	< 1%	Ser - Swi
100%	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-	99.9%	+4
100%	100%	100%	100%	80%	-	-	99.7%	+3
100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	-	98.5%	+2
100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	96.4%	+1
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	Draw
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	Away

 

 Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Poland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	22%	14%	< 1%
Denmark	2.0%	4.2%	4.4%
Poland	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%

mutual information: 48.3 mBit

Belgium vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Belgium	8%	< 1%	< 1%
Croatia	< 1%	2.8%	3.1%

mutual information: 44.1 mBit

Serbia vs Switzerland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Switzerland	< 1%	3.0%	3.2%
Serbia	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%

mutual information: 22.9 mBit

Costa Rica vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%

mutual information: 19 mBit

Australia vs Denmark	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%
Argentina	21%	21%	17%

mutual information: 18.1 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (40%)
		Netherlands (38%) Ecuador (20%) Iran (14%) England (13%)
Iran (39%) England (28%) United States (27%)
				Argentina (41%) Netherlands (19%) Denmark (15%) Ecuador (6%)
Argentina (73%) Poland (23%)
		Argentina (56%) Denmark (26%) Poland (10%)
Denmark (64%) Australia (32%)
						Brazil (37%) Argentina (23%) Spain (12%) Netherlands (9%)
Spain (81%) Japan (16%)
		Spain (58%) Morocco (13%) Croatia (11%)
Morocco (55%) Croatia (26%) Belgium (19%)
				Brazil (56%) Spain (24%) Uruguay (5%)
Brazil (99%)
		Brazil (78%) Uruguay (12%)
Uruguay (48%) Portugal (27%) Ghana (15%)
								Brazil (26%) Argentina (18%) Netherlands (10%) France (9%)
England (72%) Iran (19%)
		England (37%) Netherlands (30%) Ecuador (17%)
Netherlands (45%) Ecuador (39%) Senegal (16%)
				France (43%) Netherlands (18%) England (16%) Ecuador (6%)
France (100%)
		France (71%) Poland (9%)
Poland (33%) Mexico (31%) Saudi Arabia (25%)
						France (24%) Portugal (12%) Netherlands (10%) England (7%)
Croatia (41%) Belgium (32%) Morocco (28%)
		Germany (29%) Croatia (21%) Belgium (20%) Spain (11%)
Germany (51%) Costa Rica (27%) Spain (16%)
				Portugal (23%) Germany (14%) Switzerland (14%) Belgium (12%) Croatia (10%)
Portugal (65%) Uruguay (32%)
		Portugal (40%) Switzerland (29%) Uruguay (17%)
Switzerland (65%) Serbia (33%)

Group E - Germany with good chances to advance

 Germany must beat Costa Rica to survive and clinch knockout stage unless Japan win - or Japan draw, Germany win with one goal, and Japan score as many goals as Germany.

Japan clinch knockout stage if they beat Spain, or Germany fail to win against Costa Rica. There is also a case, as mentioned above, if Germany win with one goal, Japan draw and score as many goals as Germany when Japan advance ahead of Germany on their internal win.

Spain miss knockout stage, if Japan and Costa Rica both win (3%).

Group E

						Probabilities
Country	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	2nd	1st	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
Spain	2	8	1	7	4	16%	81%	97.2%	68%	32%	17%	9%
Japan	2	2	2	0	3	6%	16%	21%	9%	2.1%	< 1%	< 1%
Costa Rica	2	1	7	-6	3	27%	3.3%	30%	10%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
Germany	2	2	3	-1	1	51%		51%	29%	14%	7%	2.4%

Conditions for Spain

Costa Rica - Germany
Home	Draw	Away
84%	100%	99.88%	Spa - Jap
100%	100%	100%	100%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
< 1%	100%	99.2%	82%	Away

Conditions for Japan

Costa Rica - Germany
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3	-4
16%	35%	31%	22%	17%	16%	16%	16%	Spa - Jap
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	Home
< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	0-0
< 1%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	28%	1-1
< 1%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	39%	2-2
< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	41%	3-3
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Conditions for Costa Rica

Costa Rica - Germany
Home	Draw	Away
100%	65%	< 1%	Spa - Jap
100%	100%	< 1%	37%	Home
100%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	Draw
100%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	Away

Conditions for Germany

Costa Rica - Germany
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3	-4
< 1%	< 1%	69%	78%	83%	84%	84%	84%	Spa - Jap
< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	63%	Home
< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	63%	0-0
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	54%	1-1
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	44%	2-2
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	41%	3-3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-1
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-2
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	-3
< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	3%	4%	-4

Most important matches (affecting final winners)

Argentina vs Poland	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Argentina	22%	14%	< 1%
Denmark	2.0%	4.4%	4.6%
Poland	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%

mutual information: 49.2 mBit

Belgium vs Croatia	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Belgium	8%	< 1%	< 1%
Croatia	< 1%	2.8%	3.2%

mutual information: 44.2 mBit

Australia vs Denmark	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Denmark	< 1%	< 1%	4.1%
Argentina	21%	21%	17%

mutual information: 19.1 mBit

Costa Rica vs Germany	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	< 1%	< 1%	3.9%

mutual information: 18.9 mBit

Spain vs Japan	Home Win	Draw	Away Win
Germany	3.0%	2.5%	< 1%
Brazil	25%	26%	29%

mutual information: 8.8 mBit

Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Netherlands (53%) Ecuador (40%)
		Netherlands (38%) Ecuador (20%) Iran (14%) England (13%)
Iran (39%) England (28%) United States (27%)
				Argentina (41%) Netherlands (19%) Denmark (15%) Ecuador (6%)
Argentina (73%) Poland (23%)
		Argentina (56%) Denmark (27%) Poland (10%)
Denmark (64%) Australia (32%)
						Brazil (31%) Argentina (24%) Spain (14%) Netherlands (9%)
Spain (81%) Japan (16%)
		Spain (58%) Morocco (13%) Croatia (11%)
Morocco (55%) Croatia (26%) Belgium (19%)
				Brazil (48%) Spain (26%) Uruguay (5%)
Brazil (85%)
		Brazil (67%) Uruguay (12%)
Uruguay (41%) South Korea (28%) Portugal (26%)
								Brazil (26%) Argentina (19%) Netherlands (10%) Spain (9%)
England (72%) Iran (19%)
		England (37%) Netherlands (30%) Ecuador (17%)
Netherlands (45%) Ecuador (39%) Senegal (16%)
				France (43%) Netherlands (18%) England (16%) Ecuador (6%)
France (100%)
		France (71%) Poland (9%)
Poland (33%) Mexico (31%) Saudi Arabia (25%)
						France (23%) Portugal (11%) Netherlands (10%) England (7%) Germany (7%)
Croatia (41%) Belgium (32%) Morocco (28%)
		Germany (29%) Croatia (21%) Belgium (20%) Spain (11%)
Germany (51%) Costa Rica (27%) Spain (16%)
				Portugal (20%) Germany (14%) Belgium (11%) Switzerland (11%) Croatia (9%)
Portugal (60%) Uruguay (27%)
		Portugal (35%) Switzerland (23%) Serbia (15%) Uruguay (13%)
Switzerland (49%) Serbia (35%) Brazil (14%)